Delay To 2017 And Beyond

CompTrex said:

I may have missed a discussion on this. If so, please just direct me there.
I read on FB over the weekend someone saying that they talked to Jerome and he said that production would NOT start in 2016 and that 2017 was doubtful. Has anyone discussed this? Any truth to it?

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I personally have not heard of any such news ( Please, consider your source...FB ...largest gossip site on planet EARTH ! The best way to keep up with Elio Motors current news releases beyond their own press releases. I use several resources...local Louisana (Caddo Parish) where the GM plant is located for starters. I have said this on this website before....NO MATTER how hopeful I am to support Elio Motors on their mid 2016 production date...the litmus test for me will be in May/June 2016...that I read on the Elio website/Local Lousiana newspapers/ Tech Mags/etc.has hired a workforce of x number of employees to work with the robotics and start up the production trial runs. But, before that date some 20 odd number or so Elios must be built and crashed and data collected to see if their final production models need any final design changes. (This was posted already on their own website ) There is a lot of negative stuff you'll find on other news websites...EXAMPLE: recently, the information was so outdated and not true as of 8/4/2015. ELIO can't make it...have to wear helmet in most states....False: Today 48 of the 50 states has passed laws...NOT requiring helmets for future Elio drivers The term "Autocycle" introduced into legislation describing a technology...so insurance companies will know how to offer policies. This is what was needed to further the Elio into a REALITY ! .....An additional 25 million has been raised...goal achieved ! The government grant is still pending and if this goes through...it's a no -brainer...It's on for PRODUCTION !!!.....If not, Elio is committed to not relying totally on this funding....it may be a struggle without it,probadly another postponement in production but, surely one wealthy investor would hear about this and want to be a part of transportation HIS-STORY !!! ( just sayin' )

FB in general yes, Elio's FB should be good reliable info overall.

CompTrex said:

yeah.
that's what I said...

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bowers baldwin said:

Wait, so you're saying the Elio definitely wont happen and we will all be arrested for being part of a Ponzi scheme?? (snow balling the rumor)

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Wait. Jerome got arrested?

Rickb said:

With the P5 scheduled to roll out around Thanksgiving, the amount of work to do, and the amount of funding needed does anybody seriously think the current anticipated 2016 production schedule is possible? I haven't witnessed any physical progress since the anticipated 2015 production schedule delay. Common sense and logic says 2017 is more likely, but not etched in stone, pending EBuilds, testing and funding issues. It seems we will get more speculative information from EM after the next suppliers summit. I don't think EM knows for sure at this point in time. It's ready when it's ready.

Things seem positive, but I won't believe a word from EM or anybody else's pro or con speculation, until I see the P5 on the ground powered by the IAV engine and fully specified drive train roaring around the test track at top speed verified by a close up image of the Elgin dash speedometer and some E6-30 frames on a rack. EM said 20 weeks to the P5 so lets see how that promised pre-production schedule pans out.

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P4 took 20 weeks... I think you may be starting a rumor in saying the P5 is "scheduled to roll out around Thanksgiving". I haven't seen their release schedule but I'd suspect it will take less time to build the P5 than the P4 especially if the changes to the frame are minor. They already have most of it set up from P4.

I CAN tell you that I saw some physical activity at the Shreveport Plant (July 15th, I believe)... flat bed truck there and quite a few people gathered outside where employees would be parking (well, supervision). A 2016 production schedule is quite possible. It's also possible that if they were to finish P5 tomorrow, E01-E025 could be completed by the end of September or early October. It won't take long once they have the frame finalized to build the rest. Final fit and finish isn't super important for crash testing or mileage testing for instance.

The suppliers summit should give some answers. Elio will probably let them all know something about production dates and THOSE would be harder to shift than the ones we've been seeing so far.

WilliamH said:

Since people say we should go to the source, this is what was posted on Elio Motors facebook page.......

It is alleged that at a recent show Jerome said ...... 'production will not start in 2016 and 2017 is not etched in stone' ....... Don't know that I lend it a lot of credibility, but it is troubling afters Paul's recent interview with the 'female person' from Shreveport where he was quoted as saying ........"Not in six months. It should be less than two years."................... Would you care to comment on either of those comments?

Will let you know if Official Elio ID responds.

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I'll be shocked if there an official reply with anything specific in it. If they announce "2017 is not etched in stone" officially, the crowd funding will take a major hit. Invest now in the hopes something happens in 3 years? That's a pretty long term investment with no guarantees.

I asked Jerome about the P5 on July 18th and he said "By the end of the year". I was a bit surprised, but thinking about it, I guess I shouldn't have expected anything more, unless he knew it was getting painted that day so said it would be "Next Week". As much as EM has been beat up for missing deadlines, I don't think Jerome is going to say anything that could be construed as an official target date.

We all want to know WHEN, and I honestly don't think we're going to get anything definitive until 'WHEN' is a few months off.

Bilbo B said:

I'll be shocked if there an official reply with anything specific in it. If they announce "2017 is not etched in stone" officially, the crowd funding will take a major hit. Invest now in the hopes something happens in 3 years? That's a pretty long term investment with no guarantees.

I asked Jerome about the P5 on July 18th and he said "By the end of the year". I was a bit surprised, but thinking about it, I guess I shouldn't have expected anything more, unless he knew it was getting painted that day so said it would be "Next Week". As much as EM has been beat up for missing deadlines, I don't think Jerome is going to say anything that could be construed as an official target date.

We all want to know WHEN, and I honestly don't think we're going to get anything definitive until 'WHEN' is a few months off.

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This is exactly why I was surprised by, and question the validity of, the post. I don't think Jerome would say something like that unless it's
a> as true as it can be and
b> in line with the companies published statements.

He's not going to offer new / conflicting information to just some guy at an appearance.

Rickb said:

With the P5 scheduled to roll out around Thanksgiving, the amount of work to do, and the amount of funding needed does anybody seriously think the current anticipated 2016 production schedule is possible? I haven't witnessed any physical progress since the anticipated 2015 production schedule delay. Common sense and logic says 2017 is more likely, but not etched in stone, pending EBuilds, testing and funding issues. It seems we will get more speculative information from EM after the next suppliers summit. I don't think EM knows for sure at this point in time. It's ready when it's ready.

Things seem positive, but I won't believe a word from EM or anybody else's pro or con speculation, until I see the P5 on the ground powered by the IAV engine and fully specified drive train roaring around the test track at top speed verified by a close up image of the Elgin dash speedometer and some E6-30 frames on a rack. EM said 20 weeks to the P5 so lets see how that promised pre-production schedule pans out.

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The last estimate was mid-2016 / first half, which ends 6/31, so we are roughly 40 weeks remaining. Lots of work to complete in building/ crashing and test review alone. Then the process of gov't review and certification of test data / results. Assuming the Reg A share sale starts very soon, it looks very optimistic to stick to the time given. 40 weeks is a short time to get tooled , staffed, supplied and production ramp up, absent Murphy's law. It appears to be contingent on bringing in the capital, which at this time is still pending. So Yeah, I crave any official news on the progress of funding, and seeing concrete progress in development.

Ty said:

Wait. Jerome got arrested?

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Yea, I hear he was trying to sell cocaine to fund the car company, oh wait, never mind that was someone else....

Robert7841 said:

The last estimate was mid-2016 / first half, which ends 6/31, so we are roughly 40 weeks remaining. Lots of work to complete in building/ crashing and test review alone. Then the process of gov't review and certification of test data / results. Assuming the Reg A share sale starts very soon, it looks very optimistic to stick to the time given. 40 weeks is a short time to get tooled , staffed, supplied and production ramp up, absent Murphy's law. It appears to be contingent on bringing in the capital, which at this time is still pending. So Yeah, I crave any official news on the progress of funding, and seeing concrete progress in development.

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There won't be a government review of any testing nor any certification. NHTSA crash tests cars that are purchased at dealerships (or from the manufacturer anonymously) AFTER production has started. Any testing done will be by Elio and those results may NOT be publicly released unless they are very favorable.

Funding is, of course, the issue... The question I always have is "Does Elio have to have $200M in cash in order to start production or do they just need $200 M in assets available?" What I mean is - in order to start production, they'll have to have some parts on hand. Either they have to pay for those parts ahead of time or they pay for them when the car sells. Walmart doesn't pay for the goods on their shelves much to the consternation of vendors but rather only pays for the goods after they are sold. Either way, it takes Millions of dollars in goods to open a Walmart though they don't have any money invested in those goods. Lets say a whole Walmart has $10M in goods on the shelf. You COULD say "In order to open a Walmart, I'll need $11M. (assuming $1M for the facility). Elio could be the same "We need $200M to get started".. could be the same as saying "We need $50M in cash to pay payroll for 4 weeks of training/set up, $100M in parts delivered to Shreveport to fuel the assembly line, $40M to set up the engine line, and $10M for testing and evaluation."

We. just. don't. know.

Ty said:

There won't be a government review of any testing nor any certification. NHTSA crash tests cars that are purchased at dealerships (or from the manufacturer anonymously) AFTER production has started. Any testing done will be by Elio and those results may NOT be publicly released unless they are very favorable.

Funding is, of course, the issue... The question I always have is "Does Elio have to have $200M in cash in order to start production or do they just need $200 M in assets available?" What I mean is - in order to start production, they'll have to have some parts on hand. Either they have to pay for those parts ahead of time or they pay for them when the car sells. Walmart doesn't pay for the goods on their shelves much to the consternation of vendors but rather only pays for the goods after they are sold. Either way, it takes Millions of dollars in goods to open a Walmart though they don't have any money invested in those goods. Lets say a whole Walmart has $10M in goods on the shelf. You COULD say "In order to open a Walmart, I'll need $11M. (assuming $1M for the facility). Elio could be the same "We need $200M to get started".. could be the same as saying "We need $50M in cash to pay payroll for 4 weeks of training/set up, $100M in parts delivered to Shreveport to fuel the assembly line, $40M to set up the engine line, and $10M for testing and evaluation."

We. just. don't. know.

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Agreed. There won't be any crash test results to file with the government, unless the Autocycle bill passes and requires it (the Elio is a motorcycle right now, not a car). But I suspect (hope?) results are sent to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety to hopefully get rated by them, which should help drive the cost to insure an Elio. Insurance has been an open ended question all along, but at some point the insurance companies will need to set rates based on something, and I'd hope these crash tests would be a big part of the something.