What Is The Latest Start Production Date?

NorTracNY said:

Actually I saw a very old Elio article that was 60mpg. I would be disappointed if our government gave the loan for a product that couldn't verify their mileage claim of over 75mpg. I would think modeling would maybe be OK, but who knows what the government has seen and not seen.

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Coss said:

I'd suggest you do a search on here and find a very long thread about this exact topic.
You're going into a area that you don't know all the details on, and making calls that you're assuming you know about.
I would suggest you stop at this point, and either find that other thread and do some studying, or just drop it all together.

You don't know a lot of specifics about the financial side of Elio Motors, and that's what it's going to take to make educated statements.
The only way you can acquire the facts you need is to be part of EM's financial side.
These are not published or discussed anywhere outside of Elio Motors.
So the best you have to offer is your opinions on what you think is going on there.

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Rickb said:

EM's financial side is outlined in detail in their SEC Filings.

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booboo said:

I used to drive an 18 wheeled 500hp vehicle. It got 45 mpg
I used to drive an 18 wheeled 500hp vehicle. It got 4.5 mpg
http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quo...ng-downhill-thoughts-zig-ziglar-138-88-46.jpg

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Ekh said:

A couple of bits of information. The initial ATVM loan request was for $186 million. It may have been modified since then. Elio has to demonstrate 75 mpg to qualify for the loan. The P5 was tested out at 81 mpg, but whether that was a paper test or a physical test I don't know. However, Elio is REALLY confident that they'll make 84 mpg, or so close to it as never mind. This is due to the weight reductions from going to the steel frame and from aero improvements associated with the suspension and some other tweaks. EM is required to demonstrate 75 mpg highway, and that they can do with room to spare.

They are estimating the combined city / highway mpg at 61. The only way to improve the city mileage is to lighten the car, and there's not a lot of room left for that.

Regarding financial viability, the language of the loan requirements is that the company be able to make it without further funds from the Gov't, and thus be able to repay the loan. It does NOT state they have to be 100% debt-free and ready to rock-and-roll without the loan. However, DOE does not want to be left hanging with a huge unpaid debt on their hands ... of course. So DOE changed the rules this summer to require stronger proof of market demand for the car than 50,000 paid reservations. That's what the "commitment to buy" campaign is about -- and, more importantly, Elio has major suppliers ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED to spending millions of dollars to set up new plants, new manufacturing processes, tooling, etc because they KNOW Elio can succeed. That's better proof than asking customers to validate their own commitment, and hopefully EM will get some of these suppliers to provide their own testimonials as to the viability of the EM project.

From DOE's point of view, there is now some urgency here. Conditions have changed, and DOE may prefer to take some risk on Elio than to sit on their hands. Here's why:

DOE has granted exactly one loan since 2009, and that one was to Alcoa in 2014 for an energy-efficient way of smelting aluminum (for use in truck beds). They are sitting on a dedicated fund of $32 billion dollars. These dedicated funds were raided once to help pay for the Flint MI water problems. ATVM program managers now need to make a legitimate loan to justify their existence -- or they will go poof! $32 billion is a bunch of money that the incoming administration would love to get their hands on and proclaim how much money they're saving. So it's pretty much now or never time for this loan to happen. The ATVM program managers' jobs are definitely on the line. That may stir them to action.
With the current level of progress, EM is pretty well a poster child for the ATVM program.... it's WHY the program was established. So they are working to make DOE aware of the current state of affairs.

Elio does NOT WANT a letter writing campaign -- yet. It may come to that, but for now EM prefers to work within the system. (That is authoritative, and not just old news). But it is certain that a galvanic charge has been applied to the legs of the dead frogs at ATVM. So things are going to happen. Let's hope they're the right things.

I really can't say more than this, so no point in asking, but as usual, I'm not making it all up.

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Ekh said:

A couple of bits of information. The initial ATVM loan request was for $186 million. It may have been modified since then. Elio has to demonstrate 75 mpg to qualify for the loan. The P5 was tested out at 81 mpg, but whether that was a paper test or a physical test I don't know. However, Elio is REALLY confident that they'll make 84 mpg, or so close to it as never mind. This is due to the weight reductions from going to the steel frame and from aero improvements associated with the suspension and some other tweaks. EM is required to demonstrate 75 mpg highway, and that they can do with room to spare.

They are estimating the combined city / highway mpg at 61. The only way to improve the city mileage is to lighten the car, and there's not a lot of room left for that.

Regarding financial viability, the language of the loan requirements is that the company be able to make it without further funds from the Gov't, and thus be able to repay the loan. It does NOT state they have to be 100% debt-free and ready to rock-and-roll without the loan. However, DOE does not want to be left hanging with a huge unpaid debt on their hands ... of course. So DOE changed the rules this summer to require stronger proof of market demand for the car than 50,000 paid reservations. That's what the "commitment to buy" campaign is about -- and, more importantly, Elio has major suppliers ABSOLUTELY COMMITTED to spending millions of dollars to set up new plants, new manufacturing processes, tooling, etc because they KNOW Elio can succeed. That's better proof than asking customers to validate their own commitment, and hopefully EM will get some of these suppliers to provide their own testimonials as to the viability of the EM project.

From DOE's point of view, there is now some urgency here. Conditions have changed, and DOE may prefer to take some risk on Elio than to sit on their hands. Here's why:

DOE has granted exactly one loan since 2009, and that one was to Alcoa in 2014 for an energy-efficient way of smelting aluminum (for use in truck beds). They are sitting on a dedicated fund of $32 billion dollars. These dedicated funds were raided once to help pay for the Flint MI water problems. ATVM program managers now need to make a legitimate loan to justify their existence -- or they will go poof! $32 billion is a bunch of money that the incoming administration would love to get their hands on and proclaim how much money they're saving. So it's pretty much now or never time for this loan to happen. The ATVM program managers' jobs are definitely on the line. That may stir them to action.
With the current level of progress, EM is pretty well a poster child for the ATVM program.... it's WHY the program was established. So they are working to make DOE aware of the current state of affairs.

Elio does NOT WANT a letter writing campaign -- yet. It may come to that, but for now EM prefers to work within the system. (That is authoritative, and not just old news). But it is certain that a galvanic charge has been applied to the legs of the dead frogs at ATVM. So things are going to happen. Let's hope they're the right things.

I really can't say more than this, so no point in asking, but as usual, I'm not making it all up.

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larryboy said:

There are really only 3 ways Elio can go from this point.

1. Paul refuses any offers to fund the company that will dilute his control. The unsold stock could be sold to an investor at $4 a share and provide all the money needed to start production. He does not get the ATVM loan for some reason and the dream dies a slow agonizing death as he misses deadlines and the talent he has assembled goes away. The last few Elio law suits are filed in 2018 and the few completed vehicles and engines are sold to pay judgements and legal fees.

2. Paul does not get the ATVM loan but he gives up control of the company to someone with deep pockets and the Elio goes into production. He could keep enough stock to be a wealthy man and the deal could include a job with the company.

3. Paul gets the ATVM loan and the Elio goes into production. The value of the stock goes up, way up and there will be plenty of money to pay off the loan and fund R&D for an electric Elio or a diesel electric Elio hybrid. When I first started thinking about writing this I was going to include a line about oil not always going to stay at $40 a barrel. Now the line reads $50 a barrel. A large part of the globe has drivers who are paying twice what we are for gasoline and the Elio will be a hot export item

There is no way he would allow #1 to happen. He gave up on the Elio dash (I hope) to save a few bucks and/or to make the Elio more attractive to more people. He would not want his legacy to be just one of the many failed auto companies in US history albeit one that came the closest to success.
I think that Paul is going to hold on to option 3 as long as he can. I think he will get the loan but if he does not I am sure he is sitting on one or more offers that will make #2 the route to production.
When the stock offer was made we were asked to pledge a certain amount. I pledged 4K and then weenied out and only bought 2K worth. When the stock went down to $12 recently I bought 2K more. If it goes down to $12 again I will buy some more. I think the chances of the Elio failing are nearly nil.

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