Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

tonyspumoni said:

Perhaps this has been answered before, but has anything reputable been said regarding the exact details of what a production ramp-up would look like when they do get the funds? Paul is an extremely confident optimist so pehaps we ought to take with a large grain of salt claims of a rapid assembly line build.

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I asked this of VP Jerome Vassallo directly and received what sounds to me like EM has a very reasonable ramp up planned. The production ramp up plan as I understand it is to average about 150 per shift in the first month which would mean under 3000 vehicles produced in the first month. They expect about 250 average per shift in the second month which is about 5000 vehicles that month. During the third month the line is expected to average 350 per shift which is about 7000 vehicles per month and the current plan is for the line to stay at this level through the reservation build period. The full production goal is 500 vehicles per shift which is over 10K per month at full volume per shift. There will only be a single shift at first working Monday through Friday however the plant can easily accommodate a second shift running each day thereby reaching the 250K expected vehicle production total per year.

The obvious reason for slower assembly at first is to allow the workers enough time to become proficient at their assigned tasks however another reason, which is less obvious to most people, is the amount of the pre and post build inspection which will occur on these vehicles as they move down the line and after they are completed. The way this process has been described is that vehicles built during the first month are alpha builds and during the second month will be beta builds. The terms alpha and beta are not really indicative of engineering changes but instead denote how much pre and post build inspection will occur on these vehicles as they move down the line and after they are completed. These first vehicles will be checked numerous times for quality control purposes and minor tweaks to how things are assembled will be occurring during this period to improve line efficiency, resolve any build issues discovered, as well as develop the standardized post-build checklists which will be used after this initial period.

It has been said that our group on this form represent a very small portion of the reservationists and I believe that is true.

However we are probably indicative of how the rest of the reservationists feel. We should not be ignored.

grampi said:

I don't think anyone would disagree. My contention is that Elio should be keeping us aware of any delays and what's causing them...all of them...whether they're obligated to do so or not...

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Grampi did you forget to read the letter! See the letter below..

Dear Elio Family:

When I started Elio Motors, I always thought the most gratifying part of the experience would be seeing the vehicle go from concept to reality. After all, I’m an engineer. That’s what we do. We dream big and turn those dreams into a product people can use, enjoy, even love.

But, a funny thing has happened on our journey. The real gratifying part of building a vehicle from scratch has been meeting the thousands of fans across the country who understand and support our mission. The people who have made reservations, or even just the ones who come to events with enthusiasm have altered my world view.

Nothing is more important than supporters like you.

With that in mind, since our inception we have adopted transparency as one of our core values. Keeping our customers up to date in a timely manner on our progress is incredibly important to our mission.

That’s why it is a top priority of our company to let you know we have pushed back our 2015 production target. We now anticipate production date in the first half of 2016. We have many of the major building blocks in place to succeed, including our vehicle design, our world-class team of suppliers and the manufacturing facility in Shreveport. In addition, we will introduce our engine to suppliers, investors and media on Feb. 6. Even with all that progress, the key component that affects our timeline is funding, and these efforts continue to take shape as we have several strategies in place to expedite the fundraising efforts. We have retained Corporate Fuel Securities, a New York-based FINRA registered broker dealer to act as financial advisor and placement agent in our fundraising efforts. And, we can raise potentially millions of dollars through the sale of surplus equipment in the Shreveport facility. In fact, here is a web site where you can take a look at all the surplus equipment available (Surplus Elio Equipment).

Additionally, there are a few other strategies we are working on behind the scenes that we’ll be able to announce in the near future.

Rest assured, every single Elio Motors team member is working diligently every day to get us closer to production. All we ask is for your patience and support as we continue this journey. The Elio is revolutionizing the way people will commute and we look forward to the day you take delivery of your Elio. That day is coming.

As we move forward with our fundraising efforts, we will share what information we can, as soon as we can. Thanks again for your support and your belief in Elio Motors.

Best regards,

goofyone said:

I asked this of VP Jerome Vassallo directly and received what sounds to me like EM has a very reasonable ramp up planned. The production ramp up plan as I understand it is to average about 150 per shift in the first month which would mean under 3000 vehicles produced in the first month. They expect about 250 average per shift in the second month which is about 5000 vehicles that month. During the third month the line is expected to average 350 per shift which is about 7000 vehicles per month and the current plan is for the line to stay at this level through the reservation build period. The full production goal is 500 vehicles per shift which is over 10K per month at full volume per shift. There will only be a single shift at first working Monday through Friday however the plant can easily accommodate a second shift running each day thereby reaching the 250K expected vehicle production total per year.

The obvious reason for slower assembly at first is to allow the workers enough time to become proficient at their assigned tasks however another reason, which is less obvious to most people, is the amount of the pre and post build inspection which will occur on these vehicles as they move down the line and after they are completed. The way this process has been described is that vehicles built during the first month are alpha builds and during the second month will be beta builds. The terms alpha and beta are not really indicative of engineering changes but instead denote how much pre and post build inspection will occur on these vehicles as they move down the line and after they are completed. These first vehicles will be checked numerous times for quality control purposes and minor tweaks to how things are assembled will be occurring during this period to improve line efficiency, resolve any build issues discovered, as well as develop the standardized post-build checklists which will be used after this initial period.

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Thanks Goofyone! I was pretty sure you had posted this info before, but my memory isn't always that good. o_O

outsydthebox said:

Thanks Goofyone! I was pretty sure you had posted this info before, but my memory isn't always that good. o_O

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In my usual befuddled state I didn't make myself as clear as I ought to have. Sorry. When I pondered about ramp up I was thinking about establishment of the capabilityf for production, e.g. a fully functioning production workflow, from raw materials and parts to lined-up, ready-to-sell Elios. I have little doubt that once Elio Motors has a working production capability they'll be able to scale production to meet demand. I'm more concerned with the duration of the assembly line and supply tail build once they can fund that. It is entirely possible that ATVM or $240M private placement comes through (sweet victory!!!) but it takes them far longer than they anticipated to turn tha cash into a working production schema (crud!!!).

And, on an entirely different (and bizarre) note, I discovered today from my teen daugther that I am at best "aged" and at worst "geriatric". This, because I had not only never encountered the word 'cosplay' before but couldn't even guess its meaning. Anyone else having a senior moment (don't understand the word?)?

tonyspumoni said:

... And, on an entirely different (and bizarre) note, I discovered today from my teen daugther that I am at best "aged" and at worst "geriatric". This, because I had not only never encountered the word 'cosplay' before but couldn't even guess its meaning. Anyone else having a senior moment (don't understand the word?)?

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This is like the Comic-Con (Cosplay= Costume-Play) that Elio had the autocycle at:
cos·play
ˈkäzˌplā,ˈkäsˌplā/
noun

1. 1.
   the practice of dressing up as a character from a movie, book, or video game, especially one from the Japanese genres of manga and anime.

verb

1. 1.
   engage in cosplay.

John Painter said:

Ok, is this what it looks like it is?

View attachment 4577

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uh it looks like some junior high kids looking at the Elio engine?

Cache Man said:

This is like the Comic-Con (Cosplay= Costume-Play) that Elio had the autocycle at:

cos·play
ˈkäzˌplā,ˈkäsˌplā/
noun

1. 1.
   the practice of dressing up as a character from a movie, book, or video game, especially one from the Japanese genres of manga and anime.

verb

1. 1.
   engage in cosplay.

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Crap. Now I discover that the word I didn't know has a context with the vehicle I don't know either. What a loser I am. Serving wench - more wine! My AARP card? Heck, I can't remember.

tonyspumoni said:

Yeah, I kinda got up a head of steam there Kuda and just didn't know when to quit. Still, people seem awfully willing to cheer Paul's optimism when something great happens - like where we are now - and boo him in a most unflattering fashion when it doesn't.

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You ever hear of sports fans? "What have you done for me lately?"

tonyspumoni said:

In my usual befuddled state I didn't make myself as clear as I ought to have. Sorry. When I pondered about ramp up I was thinking about establishment of the capabilityf for production, e.g. a fully functioning production workflow, from raw materials and parts to lined-up, ready-to-sell Elios. I have little doubt that once Elio Motors has a working production capability they'll be able to scale production to meet demand. I'm more concerned with the duration of the assembly line and supply tail build once they can fund that. It is entirely possible that ATVM or $240M private placement comes through (sweet victory!!!) but it takes them far longer than they anticipated to turn tha cash into a working production schema (crud!!!).

Click to expand...

EM has told us in the past that Comau expected to need 5-6 months of work in the plant, and lead time to secure any extra needed equipment, before production begins and as this is Comau's business they would likely have a good understanding of these things. The good news is that the amount of work needed to be done inside the plant is actually being reduced over time as some of this work has and will be completed before the actual production countdown clock begins. Some of the initial work in the plant actually began in September 2014 when Comau began moving equipment around as they had to move it out of parts of the plant IRG is planning to lease to other companies as well as move equipment around for refurbishment and sale. EM told us at the time that as long as they already had the specialized crews to move the large and heavy equipment around, such as giant presses, they would take advantage and re-position any pieces of large and heavy equipment needed for production according to the production plan. Comau also conducted a full equipment survey prior to deciding what stays and what goes so EM should know exactly what equipment they may need Comau to provide them. EM is also planning to take advantage of Comau being in the plant to refurbish equipment to sell by using some of the revenue generated by the sale to pay Comau to refurbish the equipment EM needs reuse for production.

From the supplier side EM has told us in the past that the longest lead time items needed to be finalized and ordered about three months prior to production. They apparently know exactly when everything needs to be ordered and have even worked this into the vehicle testing plans to ensure they can make decisions on items in advance of the lead time deadlines. This is all actually fairly standard for engineers working in the auto industry, or indeed many industries, so I have no doubt they have mapped this out and understand what needs to happen when. Of course actually executing on the plan is always the more interesting side of things.

EM has also told us that they expect to begin hiring in Shreveport about six months out for a variety of management and support positions, such as HR, which need to be in place ahead of line worker hiring. The actual hiring of line workers is expected to begin about 2-3 months out from production with line workers actually reporting for work a couple of weeks prior to production kickoff to begin their orientation and training.

So from a production point of view things will likely be fairly quiet until about six months out then all hell will break loose in Shreveport. Should be fun to sit back and enjoy the show as vehicle testing will also be occurring at the same time as well as countless other details coming together.