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Would You Pay Full Price To Boot Up Production?

Jeff Miller

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I think you misinterpreted his statement. (Well, one of us did, as I interpreted it differently than you.)

"yet people extend their trust of their beloved phones and video games to robots driving cars, refusing to notice that their presnent gear crashes all the time. "

I interpreted this as meaning "their beloved phones and video games" crash all the time. I.e., he's asserting that people mistakenly feel that because their cell phones and video games are so easy and reliable, that self-driving cars would be, too.

I have mixed feelings about the technology myself. I think that it will eventually happen. I'm not so sure that the technology is quite ready yet. Manufacturer's would definitely have to lock the systems up tight. Computers are too fragile to allow owner's to perform their own modifications to the driving systems. There's too much risk and liability involved.

I share your sentiments and concern.

As a professional software engineer that has had to design and implement equipment to meet telecommunications requirements of 99.999% availability I am saddened by what has become of the industry.

Consumer goods like cell phones that are rushed to market before features are even complete and that consumers accept even though they routinely fail us are all too common in the industry. The people I see coming into the industry think this is normal. I had the experience of knowing of a pace maker being developed by new engineers that chose to use technology they liked without regard for some of the inherent dangers; re: the pace maker would suddenly stop when the software had to do garbage collection. That project was redone thankfully but I see the same lack of understanding and appreciation of sound engineering principles and professional implementations continuing to plague the industry.

Security and communications in cars are already a hot topic now. Designers felt that the systems they were creating were both secure and sufficiently isolated from automotive controls but the reality is that there are demonstrated hijackings of autos with these systems in it. I really don't want to be in a vehicle that gets hacked and I can't do anything about it.

As for the safety of these test vehicles I don't believe the developers are telling us the full truth. Notice how google has recently talked about the need to add functionality to allow the vehicle to drive in adverse conditions. Something as simple as a wiper on their camera sensors is not yet part of the vehicle. In the industry there is a trend of claiming victory before being done and that the last 20% takes 80% of the effort. I truly believe that all these test vehicles have only scratched the surface and that it will be a significant time before they will be able to handle all of the things that drivers currently do.

Another recent issue was the google car getting pulled over for going too slow and blocking traffic; isn't this a classic example of drivers that cause accidents? Sure, the vehicle may not have been in the accident but if it is causing chaos around it or if it is causing other drivers to hit it than I can't accept that the accidents are other people's fault and not the vehicle itself.

I also wonder about how well this would scale. Sure it is a nice concept to dream of a personal vehicle that would take me everywhere, especially when I get too old to drive, but adding even more vehicles to the system will only strain it worse. If we really want to move people it would make more sense to invest in intelligent mass transit vs. personalized vehicles (and I say that even though I personally hate mass transit).

I find it disconcerting that so many people use vehicles for transportation while they continue to become more and more disengaged from the vehicle. They use cell phones, eat in their cars, shave in their cars, watch movies, etc. and instead of paying attention to what is going on rely on sensors to alert them to issues, slow their car for them, keep their car in their own lane, and keep them safe when "somebody else" runs into them. A self driving car is the epitome of what these folks want, and perhaps need. For me, I'd rather see those folks get off the roads and use some other form of transportation so that I could enjoy my driving experience without them putting me in danger.
 

RUCRAYZE

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first, thanks, for clearity- short term, next 10 years it ain't gonna happen 25 yrs? ya can't write it off.
I remember Dick Tracy's wrist radio!!! and hereI am typing away on a machine, that sends my messages on a wire, and has more memory, and smaller than a room..., man on the moon, etc.
That's providing, as per Albert Einstein, the FOURTH world war will be fought with rocks and sticks
 
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John Painter

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Would you, and especially those 50,000+ who dropped cash to reserve an Elio, pay full price up front, pre-production, if the DOE torpedoed the loan entirely? 50,000 X $6,800 = more than enough to start production. Even a fraction of full price would do.
Not that it works that way, but no.

EM needs the start up money to start up,... it will need our reservation money coming in for operating capital. Vehicle manufacturing is ridiculously expensive, right up there with oil field exploration and development. Might as well just sit back and enjoy the show.
:popcorn:
 

Coss

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Paul has had a number of people offer to pay all (or even more) before production and he will not let that happen (as per EM).
I'm just the messenger here; I asked and that was their answer.
They would not say why.
 

Rob Croson

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I would imagine it has something to do with creating an obligation to sell/deliver a car. The Elio reservation system is quite explicit that the reservation money, even for the 1K all-ins, does NOT create an obligation on their end to sell you a car. (Or on our end to buy a car.) If they were to accept full payment up front, that would probably create some form of obligation to sell you a car, and thus open them up to liability if it doesn't get delivered on time, or for the agreed-upon price. I think that kind of system would be a total mess.
 

Coss

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I would imagine it has something to do with creating an obligation to sell/deliver a car. The Elio reservation system is quite explicit that the reservation money, even for the 1K all-ins, does NOT create an obligation on their end to sell you a car. (Or on our end to buy a car.) If they were to accept full payment up front, that would probably create some form of obligation to sell you a car, and thus open them up to liability if it doesn't get delivered on time, or for the agreed-upon price. I think that kind of system would be a total mess.
Thank you Rob; when I first heard mention of this idea I knew it would never be accepted by EM.
 

LGilbert

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Would you, and especially those 50,000+ who dropped cash to reserve an Elio, pay full price up front, pre-production, if the DOE torpedoed the loan entirely? 50,000 X $6,800 = more than enough to start production. Even a fraction of full price would do.

The average reservation amount is short of $500, indicating that a great percentage of those with reservations are not willing to risk much until there is a guaranteed product available. Thus, there is little merit in this suggestion.

The car is far from being production ready. None of the crash testing has been completed; the interior is still using donor parts; many sub-systems have yet to be finished (like A/C, electronics, windshield wipers,etc.), and some windows are plastic still. They have the money to finish the car to production. The real financials go into getting the factory production line created, renting the assembly yards, opening stores, creating the transportation system, and buying initial stock of materials, paying sub-contractors for system stock,and doing all these things before the company starts showing a profit. The company has to have the capital to run its operations for at least a year or it will die before sales ramp up sufficiently to be profitable.
 
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