250,000 Units Per Year ?

Bilbo B · Dec 21, 2014

If you look at history, that's what happens. The old AMC introduced the Gremlin. Soon we had the Pinto and Vega, too. Chrysler introduced the minivan. Soon everyone had a minivan. In the first case, AMC wasn't able to hold the market. In the second case, Chrysler has managed to hold it's spot as market leader in that one niche.

If enough people buy an Elio instead of a Civic, or what have you, Honda and the others will notice and react. Elio will have the advantage of defining the niche. Whether they can hold it (like Chrysler) or disappear (like AMC) will depend upon how good the first gen product is compared to the 'me toos' and how they innovate going forward. Another possibility is one of the big boys buys them out. Not many recent examples of that, unless you count GM buying Hummer.

Sent from my BN NookHD+ using Forum Fiend v1.2.10.

Inigo93 · Dec 21, 2014

tonyspumoni said:
Ring a bell? It should.

I'll bite... why should it ring a bell?

Ty · Dec 21, 2014

I say...
The government, realizing that there are too many three wheelersavoiding official standards, they enact legislation to start requiring testing for trustworthiness and emissions. Both items drive prices up a bit. Two other manufacturers begin manufacturing lighter vehicles for the U.S. market. Elio has a head start and enjoys a cult following similar to VW Bugs.

Because of robust supplier networks, Elio is relegated to that inch market and sits comfortably producing a few ten thousands per year. Paul can sleep well knowing he illustrated the "smaller is better" movement in the US. Fuel consumption drops 8.7% by the end of 2018. Tesla's big battery factory combined with their new light weight eco-commuter further increases acceptance of small vehicles by the public.

Hummer H1' are found turned over in Mob protests of excessive consumption.

2022, Sun Power drops the price of their home solar set ups by 50%. All new construction includes Solar roofs. Expert predict that within 20 years the U.S. will have increased renewable power production to 87.3%. Natural gas fired power plants are almost completely clean.

2024, Buying plastic bottles of water becomes the new shameful practice as water bottle production approaches automotive fuel consumption in oil usage (yes, water bottles come from oil)

2026, U.S. officially 100% energy independent. Small vehicle exports outpace pickup truck exports for the first time.

2027, In light of the recovery and energy independence, the U.S. ends petroleum, solar, and other subsidies. In a surprise move, handouts are limited, welfare recipients must pass drug tests, and taxes can actually be lowered. With more available income, people donate more to their churches and charities which, in turn, fill the gaps.
2028, The President declares April 16th as New Freedom day. It is first day the deficit actually contracted.
2029, A U.S. Today poll, in conjunction with Car And Driver, declare the Elio Lord Elgin gauge cluster the best cluster of all time. Pundits rejoice, Trolls scowl.

ALL BECAUSE ELIO STUCK TO HIS GUNS, SUPPORTERS STOOD STRONG, AND A DREAM WAS REALISED!

Ty · Dec 21, 2014

Bilbo B said:
If you look at history, that's what happens. The old AMC introduced the Gremlin. Soon we had the Pinto and Vega, too. Chrysler introduced the minivan. Soon everyone had a minivan. In the first case, AMC wasn't able to hold the market. In the second case, Chrysler has managed to hold it's spot as market leader in that one niche.

If enough people buy an Elio instead of a Civic, or what have you, Honda and the others will notice and react. Elio will have the advantage of defining the niche. Whether they can hold it (like Chrysler) or disappear (like AMC) will depend upon how good the first gen product is compared to the 'me toos' and how they innovate going forward. Another possibility is one of the big boys buys them out. Not many recent examples of that, unless you count GM buying Hummer.

Sent from my BN NookHD+ using Forum Fiend v1.2.10.

That is what is currently happening to Mini as well. The Fiat 500 is said by many to be a better car. The Mini is becoming heavier and has lost its momentum.

zelio · Dec 21, 2014

Ty said:
I say...
The government, realizing that there are too many three wheelersavoiding official standards, they enact legislation to start requiring testing for trustworthiness and emissions. Both items drive prices up a bit. Two other manufacturers begin manufacturing lighter vehicles for the U.S. market. Elio has a head start and enjoys a cult following similar to VW Bugs.

Because of robust supplier networks, Elio is relegated to that inch market and sits comfortably producing a few ten thousands per year. Paul can sleep well knowing he illustrated the "smaller is better" movement in the US. Fuel consumption drops 8.7% by the end of 2018. Tesla's big battery factory combined with their new light weight eco-commuter further increases acceptance of small vehicles by the public.

Hummer H1' are found turned over in Mob protests of excessive consumption.

2022, Sun Power drops the price of their home solar set ups by 50%. All new construction includes Solar roofs. Expert predict that within 20 years the U.S. will have increased renewable power production to 87.3%. Natural gas fired power plants are almost completely clean.

2024, Buying plastic bottles of water becomes the new shameful practice as water bottle production approaches automotive fuel consumption in oil usage (yes, water bottles come from oil)

2026, U.S. officially 100% energy independent. Small vehicle exports outpace pickup truck exports for the first time.

2027, In light of the recovery and energy independence, the U.S. ends petroleum, solar, and other subsidies. In a surprise move, handouts are limited, welfare recipients must pass drug tests, and taxes can actually be lowered. With more available income, people donate more to their churches and charities which, in turn, fill the gaps.
2028, The President declares April 16th as New Freedom day. It is first day the deficit actually contracted.
2029, A U.S. Today poll, in conjunction with Car And Driver, declare the Elio Lord Elgin gauge cluster the best cluster of all time. Pundits rejoice, Trolls scowl.

ALL BECAUSE ELIO STUCK TO HIS GUNS, SUPPORTERS STOOD STRONG, AND A DREAM WAS REALISED!

You had way too much fun writing that! I am sure!!!

Z

tonyspumoni · Dec 21, 2014

The two are very similar in outlook and approach. One has a Nobel and the other, if he pulls it off, would deserve one. If you read the Wiki bio and substitute "car" for "microcredit" it sounds just like Paul. In fact, I wouldn't surprise me in the least for Elio to team up with a microlender to act as their finance arm. Clearly, to make Paul's goal of 250k units per year, a good chunk of his market will be low-credit/no-credit borrowers - just the sort established, main-street lenders are likely to avoid, and Elio would miss out on a huge, untapped market if they couldn't find a way to lend to those at the lower end of financial food chain.

Ty · Dec 21, 2014

zelio said:
You had way too much fun writing that! I am sure!!! Z

You are correct, Z. Too much fun. Maybe I should edit it and add a bit about how the Elio has been touted as the Model of safety for the incredibly wise decision of placing the gas cap in the safest possible location.

Ty · Dec 21, 2014

Inigo93 said:
I certainly hope you're right. I certainly like the look... But when I see certain auto industry folks refer to it as the "virginity shield" (or whatever the words were), it drives home the idea that I'm biased. Further, I suspect such people are more in line with mainstream America when it comes to auto asthetics and the like or they wouldn't have a job in that world.

I didn't realize how biased I was till my wife and I walked up to the Elio and she said "Ugh, it's ugly". I may not need that back seat very often...

JEBar · Dec 21, 2014

Ty said:
I didn't realize how biased I was till my wife and I walked up to the Elio and she said "Ugh, it's ugly". I may not need that back seat very often...

could it be she isn't a Creamsicle person ?

Jim

Norahsbed · Dec 21, 2014

Ty said:
I didn't realize how biased I was till my wife and I walked up to the Elio and she said "Ugh, it's ugly". I may not need that back seat very often...

Funny... My wife said pretty much the opposite, "Its a unique looking vehicle, I think we should get one but not that color!"

250,000 Units Per Year ?

Bilbo B

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Inigo93

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Ty

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Ty

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zelio

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tonyspumoni

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Ty

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Ty

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JEBar

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Norahsbed

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