Em's Reservation Philosophy

[Bert]

The good news is, while each "part" of the car will be depended on to be there for completion, they in no way have to be started for production on the exact same day, or the same place for that matter!
Off the shelf parts indicates "those" parts are already being manufactured. IF that manufacturer is aware of the "probable" assembly date, they can, and will, have those parts onsite and ready for installation!
Raw materials, such as for the frames, is available Year around, and from many suppliers, therefore not only getting it will be probable, but for the quantity needed, at a very user friendly price.
The body panels can start to be molded as soon as final design is agreed on.
The final dimensions of the frame and body will allow for permenent molds to be made, and production lines to be set up for mass assembly.
In My Opinion, once all the Ts are crossed and the I(s) dotted, a lot of different areas, companies and suppliers, who are already sitting patiently waiting for the "go ahead", will be able to have everything needed to complete large quantities of our beloved Elio, in a very short time.
I believe it will take longer to fully train the line workers, than it will to bring in all completed and raw materials.

The better the motor does on its testing, the more confident Elio will be to start with everything else. The outflow of cash at that time will make it irreversible. If it fails after that point, there's nothing left in the tank for another try. IMO, the best reason for making "certain" before advancing..

 

[goofyone]

I'm starting to see a pattern. We reservationists 40k +/- are in truth a very very weeny teeny drop in the buyers market.
We on this forum are even smaller with about (2500?) and even smaller number of active participants. i.e. "Our reality" is constantly being reinforced by each other, with nay sayers met with (supportive)rebuttals (this is for me one of the most articulate, respectful board by far) and we start to see us as the "true believers"
Tomorrow is Friday EM will be sharing their weekly PR, we will start a thread or two if it is informative, share observations and measurements, materials, functionality, price of gas, a couple more thousand posts about door/gas cap/ ground clearance etc. etc., but With each passing day, I personally see the emperor is not fully dressed. I've read some interesting recent comments about time frames and testing that would seem to be pushing production way down the road, which will seem to me to make it more difficult to bring the Elio to market. Hey, but that's just me......

As usual in life I believe it helps to follow the money.

Right now EM is funding its operations, the engine development, and the vehicle development program via the sale of the excess equipment from the plant which is as far as I know still an ongoing process. So right now EM is likely waiting for both more money from the equipment sale and for a date when the engine program is far enough advanced that they have additional engines ready to run in actual vehicles as it makes sense to save money and plan chassis builds to coincide with the engines becoming available. As they are waiting on the engine testing which simply takes the time it takes this part likely won't change much no matter when or where additional funding comes from.

In my opinion what will happen if the ATVM money comes along in the first half of the year is that EM will be able to do a lot of things in parallel as they will have the money in hand to get the factory online and at the same time build and test a bunch of vehicles as the more vehicles they have in development and testing the more they are able to do in a shorter time frame. Under this scenario if the ATVM money comes along in the first half of the year I can definitely see this vehicle entering production before the end of 2015 and depending on when the engine is ready and if the money comes early in the year there is still a chance at the end of the 3rd quarter.

If the ATVM were to come along later in the year then it just depends on when exactly the money shows up vs how much time it takes to get the plant up and running vs how far EM has made it on their own in the vehicle development process however even if the ATVM shows up late this is a good thing and the vehicle still likely enters production in the first half of 2016 anyway so not a big deal in the end.

The interesting questions are what happens if the ATVM loan does not work out. Private investors tend to like to do things in linear steps and would likely want EM to complete a thorough engine and vehicle development process before approving money for the plant. EM could likely do this but my guess is that needing to be careful and stretch every dime to ensure they make it will mean that under this scenario development would move quite slowly and unfortunately very likely could last most, or all, of 2015. From what I can see this scenario would be quite painful for EM in multiple ways as not only would they have to suffer through the issues and scrutiny an ATVM rejection would cause but it would likely push the project back about a year which could definitely lead to major issues with their own reservation holders which would not help their pubic image any.

This is all my opinion based on what we know and think we know. It is my honest assessment of how I see this playing out under various scenarios which are possible over the next year or so.