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Elio Crowdfunding

Rickb

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There is industry tools out there specifically to model this. And there are comparative studies as well as some standardized computational methods. With those a reasonable expectation can be made.

In the case of the P1-4, they have also been able to test these and set expectations for what the new engine and other changes to the body will do.

The intension is to size up what EPA mileage will be. Hyper mileing is not useful in establishing that.

To be clear also, the 84mpg is what EM determined is possible and set as a target. They has stated 81mpg expectation is now set and still working at the 84mpg goal.

When the P5(E1) is on the road, they will not be able to state expectation anymore.. They will have to announce what it tests as.
The P5 tested EPA mileage is what I feel the DOE has been waiting on. We can't expect them to approve that ATVM loan application based on stated expectations.
 

WilliamH

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There is industry tools out there specifically to model this. And there are comparative studies as well as some standardized computational methods. With those a reasonable expectation can be made.

In the case of the P1-4, they have also been able to test these and set expectations for what the new engine and other changes to the body will do.

The intension is to size up what EPA mileage will be. Hyper mileing is not useful in establishing that.

To be clear also, the 84mpg is what EM determined is possible and set as a target. They has stated 81mpg expectation is now set and still working at the 84mpg goal.

When the P5(E1) is on the road, they will not be able to state expectation anymore.. They will have to announce what it actually tests as.

What is this on the road stuff?
Are we doing a redo on an old Willie Nelson classic?
EPA testing is done on a chassis dyno in a temperature controlled environment using E0 gasoline.
According to the standards you can find here ------> https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fe_test_schedules.shtml <------
 

AriLea

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The P5 tested EPA mileage is what I feel the DOE has been waiting on. We can't expect them to approve that ATVM loan application based on stated expectations.
I agree, that seems to be one of the criteria. It's a formal requirement for 75mpg, and they will want solid testing results from an independent and licensed entity to satisfy that.
 

AriLea

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WilliamH

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I agree, that seems to be one of the criteria. It's a formal requirement for 75mpg, and they will want solid testing results from an independent and licensed entity to satisfy that.

As far as 75 MPG it is spelled out in -------
GUIDANCE FOR APPLICANTS TO THE ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY VEHICLES MANUFACTURING LOAN PROGRAM
which can be found at -------> http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/02/f19/ATVM_Guidance_for_Applicants_11.4.14.pdf <-------
I've posted this link so much I'm starting to feel like a troll.

And before anyone calls me on it, The USDoE LPO Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program
issues this disclaimer:
DISCLAIMER: This guidance does not constitute legal advice and is provided for informational purposes only. This guidance does not constitute rulemaking by DOE and may not be relied on to create a substantive or procedural right or benefit enforceable, at law or in equity, by any person. Without limitation, there can be no assurance that a conditional commitment letter will be issued to any applicant or, if a conditional commitment letter is issued, that a loan will ultimately be issued pursuant thereto.
 

AriLea

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I suppose what really counts is the internal communication between the DOE and EM on what criteria they must meet. I'd bet though each item in the 'guideline' is included. And by inference, a few more. Maybe we'll know more at the end of the summit meeting.

Of course all we really care about is to have a high level of confidence to a published production schedule.
 

Ekh

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Of course all we really care about is to have a high level of confidence to a published production schedule.
Well, you're right about that. If anybody ever cut to the chase, you just did.
There are a limited number of resources available to EM that would create a "high-confidence" production date.
1. ATVM loan guarantee
2. Successful sale of surplus equipment
3. Crowd-sourcing (Reg. A+)
4. Private placement funding
5. "Qualified investor" funding -- not quite the same thing as private placement (I think -- Cliff would know)
6. "Whale" and "shark" investors -- Paul doesn't want to give up the control these sources would demand
7. Off-shore investors
9. An "angel" investor or investors (Big bucks, believes in the social utility of the project, and doesn't need to control the project).
10. Paul or Jerome wins the lottery
11. Funds from reservations (much of that may already have been spent)

Obviously, some of these sources are more likely to come through than others, and the final total will be from a mixture of sources. But of all of these, the ATVM loan guarantee has the biggest impact.

We do not have an accurate, up-to-date statement from EM of exactly how much they still need to raise to start production. Frankly, I wish Elio would put together a pie chart showing how much they now have from the various sources, and a second one saying where they think the balance will come from, with and without the ATVM loan guarantee. Something of that sort is going to be needed in the disclosure materials they'll have to have for the crowd sourcing initiative. Without more accurate information about the size of the gap, we can only speculate as to the odds of success in meeting any production date, let alone a quick one.

As a privately held company, Elio doesn't have to disclose very much to the public. But as a quasi-public company, they have to be more concrete about finances, and certainly they have to provide audited financials both to DOE and the SEC. So maybe we'll learn what's actually going on to justify any stated production date. FWIW, the financials they provided to DOE a year ago have drastically changed. I assume they've filed updated financials to match the current realities -- whatever they actually are.
 
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