Tryckle

[Coss]

There was a show on this week, All American Makers, and I think it's on the Discovery channel.
Each week they have 4 teams come on and try to get their inventions backed by the money man that's a host; very similar to Shark Tank.
This week on the show they had an enclosed 3 wheeler that was hybrid human/electric powered. Their 3 wheeler uses the electric motor as the main propulsion and the driver pedals a drive to a generator. They got it up to 70mph on the dyno. Very few creature comforts, used handlebars to steer, fiberglass & carbon fiber composite body; it did look very homemade. Kind of a cool concept, but when they had it on the dyno; to get it up to 70 the guy was pedaling really hard and fast. It might make an ok around town kind of transportation, but that's about it.
Here again, 3 wheels in a backward trike configuration.
I wonder how long before one of the big car companies jumps on the 3 wheel band wagon.

 

[JEBar]

I wonder how long before one of the big car companies jumps on the 3 wheel band wagon.

interesting question .... in thinking about it, I suspect that a company that already manufactures motorcycles/tricycles would do so first .... they already know the hoops they have to jump through and would have a huge advantage in the expensive development of small engines and their transmissions .... they also have existing dealerships with repair facilities staffed by folks who are used to working on such vehicles

 

[AriLea]

I wonder how long before one of the big car companies jumps on the 3 wheel band wagon.

The Smartcar is a good measure for this.
It was 30k for each unit for few years. No competition. 10k units sold
Finally 4 makers jumped into the game, Smart lowered their price to around 12k, and sales dropped to under 6k units.
Following that kind of process, the big makers will wait for the first year or two of Elio sales before they figure out what they want to do, then it will be a decision based on market strategy and profits.
Very likely they will not compete against Elio unless they figure they want to over take that market segment for some reason. It would cost them dearly to do so. As long as an Elio costs under 7500 for a base model, it's not likely to happen.

Only a motorcycle company will try the other format for a trike being a higher cost sports model.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

The Smartcar is a good measure for this.
It was 30k for each unit for few years. No competition. 10k units sold
Finally 4 makers jumped into the game, Smart lowered their price to around 12k, and sales dropped to under 6k units.
Following that kind of process, the big makers will wait for the first year or two of Elio sales before they figure out what they want to do, then it will be a decision based on market strategy and profits.
Very likely they will not compete against Elio unless they figure they want to over take that market segment for some reason. It would cost them dearly to do so. As long as an Elio costs under 7500 for a base model, it's not likely to happen.

Only a motorcycle company will try the other format for a trike being a higher cost sports model.

Lest we forget a vehicle that meets U S standards @ $7500 will be very do-able from China or India,it's just a matter of time.

 

[AriLea]

Lest we forget a vehicle that meets U S standards @ $7500 will be very do-able from China or India,it's just a matter of time.

But at that price level, shipping becomes a significant cost component affecting the decision to jump in the game.

Still, if Elio gets their 200k level of sales, yes someone will indeed jump into it. If they do, and they someday become the only maker( by out doing or by buying EM ), they will kill the product at some point because each sale is one less sale of a more profitable product. But two makers at under $8k, yes this keeps the product type active.

Anyway, all the major makers are betting on no Elio coming of age. When EM sales actually start, only then they'll keep a serious eye on it.

The easiest way is to buy up controlling interest then vote it into oblivion. This is one of the reasons Paul is so careful about investors. Lets say EM goes wild in sales, and investment is at 240m. If they offered 300m to buy out 111m in ownership, that might be worth it to take control and kill the whole thing.

But of course, if that happens they might want to keep it since now the product is proven and competitors might want to play in a proven game.

 

[AriLea]

Marketing is a strange beast. If competition happens here's what I hope they think. -> If they buy my autocycle, the'll save so much money they can afford a really nice second car, and having bought our autocycle they may think more kindly about our SUV's Trucks and sports models. <-

The car on the showroom floor often sells the cars in the back and visa versa.

This is why I think EM should have a more expensive model to sell as well, the one will sell the other.

Tesla might be smart to make a deal to electrify the Elio and sell them as less expensive Tesla eAutocycles at say 20-30k each. The one will sell the other.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

However, China could spend 12k to build and ship a car, and sell it for $6k until it pushes out the American manufacturers. I think solar panels is an example.

When I rebuilt my kitchen The wood for my cabinets was shipped to China, (from Canada) to be manufactured and to the USA for sale- shipping costs doesn't seem to be a big factor as they still underpriced American products.
When the Chinese see the clear opportunity, I think they could, as the Japanese/Koreans before them, open factories here.

 

[AriLea]

However, China could spend 12k to build and ship a car, and sell it for $6k until it pushes out the American manufacturers. I think solar panels is an example.

When I rebuilt my kitchen The wood for my cabinets was shipped to China, (from Canada) to be manufactured and to the USA for sale- shipping costs doesn't seem to be a big factor as they still underpriced American products.
When the Chinese see the clear opportunity, I think they could, as the Japanese/Koreans before them, open factories here.

The only thing hold that off is they have not been willing to get enough quality into it to build consumer trust. Let's hope they don't figure that out.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Just an aside,and this is my own observation-
In a few years, Chinese buyers will go to their Dollar Store (whatever the yen conversion is) pick up a product and see on the bottom "Made in USA"
think about it!!!