Updated Elio (2/17/16) 1-u Financial Report...very Interesting Reading!

[RUCRAYZE]

Troll you ask- Fremont Seattle WA

 

[floydv]

Troll you ask- Fremont Seattle WA View attachment 8458

Fremont Bridge! Just saw that a few months ago. The half-buried VW is a nice touch.

 

[Kuda]

Why? Elio Motors, has over $300 million in expressed sales by reservation holders, of that they estimated about $1000 profit per vehicle which is over $50 million. If they're able to crank out 19,000 vehicle in the first 90 days and 1000/day after that, that's some pretty good cash flow in the first five months of production. Will that translate into rising sales to maintain the growth? Who knows, but I certainly hope so.

I don't think S. Lichter is
stupid. He would have
pulled the plug long ago
& leased to Wallmart....

 

[Ekh]

expressed sales by reservation holders?
and you calculated this?
not knowing how many at any financial commitment.
there will, of the 15k 1k alls folks who will not make the purchase, and for sure folks with $100 wants may never been seen again 'till their refund- for the $100.00 refundable they get updates

There will be some washing-out of reservationists due to the long delay between first making a reservation and receiving a car. Some people will have died (pace, Zelio), others will have gone bust, others will have had kids enter college and be cash-short, etc. BUT EM does have orders with over $300 million book value. By the time they enter production, that number may well be $400 or even $450 million (might be higher, but $450 million would take an additional 22,000 reservations).

If Elio starts getting those tests done and good results publicized, we can expect a real jump in reservations. The biggest risks to EM right now are the ATVM loan guarantee not coming through and gas prices staying absurdly low. (That last one won't affect people who make decisions by analysis, but WILL affect the more simple-minded buyers, which most consumers are).

Also, FWIW, the book value of the reserved cars is VERY conservative, as it ignores options, which can easily add 15 to 25% to the average actual purchase price. In practice, the book value of the business goes way up.

Finally, if the auto cycle legislation passes, the underlying profitability of EM soars due to CAFE credits (explained in the report that started this thread).

Big risks, big gains -- that's the Elio story.

 

[Rickb]

............that's the Elio story -- long story -- and it's time to write the final chapter with a happy ending........and EM investors retire happily ever after.

With that said, I'm already happily retired with no risk and just want the fun ride.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

"BUT EM does have orders with over $300 million book value. By the time they enter production, that number may well be $400 or even $450 million (might be higher, but $450 million would take an additional 22,000 reservations"



I guess I'm more the henny penny -the sky is falling. no need for me to rant on, that said, EM as I far as I know has no "orders" and I think book value is not money in the bank. But what do I know about financing- I let myself use her attorney, and took me awhile to realize I had no book value, nor money in the bank.

 

[TCBronson]

There will be some washing-out of reservationists due to the long delay between first making a reservation and receiving a car. Some people will have died (pace, Zelio), others will have gone bust, others will have had kids enter college and be cash-short, etc. BUT EM does have orders with over $300 million book value. By the time they enter production, that number may well be $400 or even $450 million (might be higher, but $450 million would take an additional 22,000 reservations).

If Elio starts getting those tests done and good results publicized, we can expect a real jump in reservations. The biggest risks to EM right now are the ATVM loan guarantee not coming through and gas prices staying absurdly low. (That last one won't affect people who make decisions by analysis, but WILL affect the more simple-minded buyers, which most consumers are).

Also, FWIW, the book value of the reserved cars is VERY conservative, as it ignores options, which can easily add 15 to 25% to the average actual purchase price. In practice, the book value of the business goes way up.

Finally, if the auto cycle legislation passes, the underlying profitability of EM soars due to CAFE credits (explained in the report that started this thread).

Big risks, big gains -- that's the Elio story.

Well said and with a reasonable thought process. This whole venture is one big gamble but I agree, once we and the public sees more and more positive progress the word will spread and there will be more reservations, I think we are all just a little anxious as I am to see the success of Elio Motors and an Elio in our driveways.

 

[Ekh]

"BUT EM does have orders with over $300 million book value. By the time they enter production, that number may well be $400 or even $450 million (might be higher, but $450 million would take an additional 22,000 reservations"



I guess I'm more the henny penny -the sky is falling. no need for me to rant on, that said, EM as I far as I know has no "orders" and I think book value is not money in the bank. But what do I know about financing- I let myself use her attorney, and took me awhile to realize I had no book value, nor money in the bank.

Book value is not a balance sheet or a net worth statement. Elio's dilemma is that the book value is very high, but the balance sheet sucks and the net worth is strongly negative. The stock sales have helped a lot, and hopefully will continue to do so.

This whole venture is a high-wire act, but there is a real chance that the guy on the wire may make it safely to the end ... and we're all cheering for him to make it safely. Of course, there's another whole set of challenges awaiting ... building true demand and market share, staving off the electric car competition and the self-driving vehicles .... but I think there's about a 10 year window in which Elio, if it gets the doors open and makes it through year One, can do extremely well.

 

[Sethodine]

And lets not forget this nugget: despite the large negative numbers and impending bills, EM is making about $462,000 per month in non-refundable reservations, and is paying it's bills with that.
($600,000 per month, but about 23% of that is held by the credit processor for the refundable deposits)

 

[Rickb]

And lets not forget this nugget: despite the large negative numbers and impending bills, EM is making about $462,000 per month in non-refundable reservations, and is paying it's bills with that.
($600,000 per month, but about 23% of that is held by the credit processor for the refundable deposits)

Yes, a GOLD NUGGET @ $462,000 per month non-refundable revenue and no product to sell.........that's marketing genius totaling about $6Million per year in revenue. Don't need no stinkin parts. lol