There will be some washing-out of reservationists due to the long delay between first making a reservation and receiving a car. Some people will have died (pace, Zelio), others will have gone bust, others will have had kids enter college and be cash-short, etc. BUT EM does have orders with over $300 million book value. By the time they enter production, that number may well be $400 or even $450 million (might be higher, but $450 million would take an additional 22,000 reservations).
If Elio starts getting those tests done and good results publicized, we can expect a real jump in reservations. The biggest risks to EM right now are the ATVM loan guarantee not coming through and gas prices staying absurdly low. (That last one won't affect people who make decisions by analysis, but WILL affect the more simple-minded buyers, which most consumers are).
Also, FWIW, the book value of the reserved cars is VERY conservative, as it ignores options, which can easily add 15 to 25% to the average actual purchase price. In practice, the book value of the business goes way up.
Finally, if the auto cycle legislation passes, the underlying profitability of EM soars due to CAFE credits (explained in the report that started this thread).
Big risks, big gains -- that's the Elio story.
SMB's Unite!!
simple minded buyers