What's Your Production Number? - Share You Number With Everyone On This Thread!

[RonnieB]

I have not got my SIL yet but I think it will be around 19,900 or so. Having worked in the automotive world for 20 years I would expect them to average about 100 cars a day for the first 4 weeks (2000 cars) as they train the workers on one shift. After that it should quickly get up to 300 per shift or 600 per day, 3000 per week. Saying they have six months or 26 weeks that's 2000 plus 66,000 for a total of 68,000 units. I could be wrong but this man would not expect to see more than 68,000 cars in 2017 with a six month production window. One thing they may do is start production in July with 2018 model cars to have a larger first year run.

Ron

 

[Coss]

I have not got my SIL yet but I think it will be around 19,900 or so. Having worked in the automotive world for 20 years I would expect them to average about 100 cars a day for the first 4 weeks (2000 cars) as they train the workers on one shift. After that it should quickly get up to 300 per shift or 600 per day, 3000 per week. Saying they have six months or 26 weeks that's 2000 plus 66,000 for a total of 68,000 units. I could be wrong but this man would not expect to see more than 68,000 cars in 2017 with a six month production window. One thing they may do is start production in July with 2018 model cars to have a larger first year run.

Ron

You estimate is under what they have stated. Remember, you're building an Elio, not a loaded 4 door sedan.
The Elio has about 1/2 the parts, and is smaller than normal cars.
Under ideal conditions they are saying 500 per shift per day, 2 shifts 1,000 per day.
Actually they will probably be 750 a day not 1,000.

 

[RonnieB]

You estimate is under what they have stated. Remember, you're building an Elio, not a loaded 4 door sedan.
The Elio has about 1/2 the parts, and is smaller than normal cars.
Under ideal conditions they are saying 500 per shift per day, 2 shifts 1,000 per day.
Actually they will probably be 750 a day not 1,000.

I did not know they stated 1000 per day but I hope your right. I went all in because I support the ideas they have and want to see them all over the place. This is a win win car for so many people.

Ron

 

[wizard of ahs]

I have not got my SIL yet but I think it will be around 19,900 or so. Having worked in the automotive world for 20 years I would expect them to average about 100 cars a day for the first 4 weeks (2000 cars) as they train the workers on one shift. After that it should quickly get up to 300 per shift or 600 per day, 3000 per week. Saying they have six months or 26 weeks that's 2000 plus 66,000 for a total of 68,000 units. I could be wrong but this man would not expect to see more than 68,000 cars in 2017 with a six month production window. One thing they may do is start production in July with 2018 model cars to have a larger first year run.

Ron

I think you're right on the money !
I remember WAY back when, Paul had mentioned something about 65,000......
Hence the 65,000 reservation "cut off" .

 

[BiloxiGeek]

I have not got my SIL yet but I think it will be around 19,900 or so. Having worked in the automotive world for 20 years I would expect them to average about 100 cars a day for the first 4 weeks (2000 cars) as they train the workers on one shift.

I wonder if EM has any early indications of how many former GM plant workers are still in the Shreveport area and interested in going back to work there for Elio? If they get a decent number of former GM workers it seems like that would help with the learning curve quite a bit down on the assembly floor.

 

[Lynn D]

Maybe you could ask Doug Frick's Plant Manager by contacting EM directly. I agree that would cut the curve.

 

[Ty]

I have not got my SIL yet but I think it will be around 19,900 or so. Having worked in the automotive world for 20 years I would expect them to average about 100 cars a day for the first 4 weeks (2000 cars) as they train the workers on one shift. After that it should quickly get up to 300 per shift or 600 per day, 3000 per week. Saying they have six months or 26 weeks that's 2000 plus 66,000 for a total of 68,000 units. I could be wrong but this man would not expect to see more than 68,000 cars in 2017 with a six month production window. One thing they may do is start production in July with 2018 model cars to have a larger first year run.

Ron

It literally takes less than an hour to train a line worker. Seriously. Plus, the line was moving at 54 seconds per vehicle... People were trained at 52 seconds per iteration though we never ran the line that fast. If they kept the line at 100 per day for a month... that would be like an NFL team spending a month training at only walking speed... to train everyone. Nope... full speed ahead.

 

[Ty]

And wait...there is no way on God's green earth that Elio will use workers who need (100 per day x 20 work days a month= 2,000) 2,000 training events to learn a job that takes less than a minute to perform. Seriously... took me two vehicles max to learn each position. Well, a few more for the cross-body harness station but that was because GM used a mind numbing 27 different versions of it. Elio will use one.

 

[RonnieB]

And wait...there is no way on God's green earth that Elio will use workers who need (100 per day x 20 work days a month= 2,000) 2,000 training events to learn a job that takes less than a minute to perform. Seriously... took me two vehicles max to learn each position. Well, a few more for the cross-body harness station but that was because GM used a mind numbing 27 different versions of it. Elio will use one.

Training may take less time but I am looking at this as a start-up. I would think that they will still have a lot of bugs to work out. I have seen many cars coming off assembly lines needing rework due to launch issues. I hope they hit the ground running but I also would like to think that they would want to get things right before going balls to the wall. Regardless I hope they get the ATVM Loan and get all the tooling in place as soon as possible. For now I just would like to see the 100 cars built for the fleet customers in December of 2016.

 

[GiantDriver]

You estimate is under what they have stated. Remember, you're building an Elio, not a loaded 4 door sedan.
The Elio has about 1/2 the parts, and is smaller than normal cars.
Under ideal conditions they are saying 500 per shift per day, 2 shifts 1,000 per day.
Actually they will probably be 750 a day not 1,000.

Paul and others at EM have stated that they will start out at 70% of capacity (about 350 units per day) and ramp up to 100% over the course of 90 days. The second shift will be added later. They weren't sure if that would be before or after the initial 90 day period.