Jeff Porter
Elio Addict
- Joined
- May 20, 2014
- Messages
- 2,086
- Reaction score
- 5,343
For me, it's easier to speak in specific examples rather than general terms. It's too easy for me to make incorrect assumptions from general terms.
Let's do a specific example. Let's say production starts Sept. 15, 2015. It is possible that the 500 vehicles per day rate will be reached by approximately Dec. 15, 2015. During the ramp-up time for that first 3 months of production, about 14,400 vehicles total will have been produced. During that 3-month initial period of production, there are about 65 work days. If these numbers look incorrect, feel free to correct them. :-)
These numbers are based on what Paul Elio has stated as goals. The goals are backed up as feasible by those with experience and knowledge on this forum.
If all is going well, then the 4th-6th months could see a ramp-up that gets to 1000 vehicles per day by the end of the 6th month, again if there is sufficient demand. This would be roughly 130 work days in 6 months. During the ramp-up for the first 6 months, about 61,300 vehicles will have been produced.
One would have to assume that all is going well for Elio Motors, for these numbers to happen. All the necessary parts are present and correct. There are no natural disasters affecting supply chains or the plant itself. Insert any other delay reason here. Any sort of forseen or unforseen delay would reduce the total number of vehicles produced during production ramp-up. For our sanity and happiness, it might be best for us to assume that delays will occur, starting with Sept 15 as a production start.
If you put yourself in the CEO chair for Elio Motors, you see there are around 35,000 reservations by end of Sept 2014 (i.e. right now), and based on the above prediction, you reach that number of vehicles with about 20 work weeks of production. I'd be a bit nervous about my plant creating hundreds of cars per day during week 21 and I'm not sure if we have buyers.
It's easy to say "build them and folks will buy them", but these aren't $10 widgets. Demand really REALLY has to be there.
In this specific example, I believe I've talked myself into the idea that a good number for a reservation shut-down would be a projection for the first 6-months of production, which is 61,000.
Let's do a specific example. Let's say production starts Sept. 15, 2015. It is possible that the 500 vehicles per day rate will be reached by approximately Dec. 15, 2015. During the ramp-up time for that first 3 months of production, about 14,400 vehicles total will have been produced. During that 3-month initial period of production, there are about 65 work days. If these numbers look incorrect, feel free to correct them. :-)
These numbers are based on what Paul Elio has stated as goals. The goals are backed up as feasible by those with experience and knowledge on this forum.
If all is going well, then the 4th-6th months could see a ramp-up that gets to 1000 vehicles per day by the end of the 6th month, again if there is sufficient demand. This would be roughly 130 work days in 6 months. During the ramp-up for the first 6 months, about 61,300 vehicles will have been produced.
One would have to assume that all is going well for Elio Motors, for these numbers to happen. All the necessary parts are present and correct. There are no natural disasters affecting supply chains or the plant itself. Insert any other delay reason here. Any sort of forseen or unforseen delay would reduce the total number of vehicles produced during production ramp-up. For our sanity and happiness, it might be best for us to assume that delays will occur, starting with Sept 15 as a production start.
If you put yourself in the CEO chair for Elio Motors, you see there are around 35,000 reservations by end of Sept 2014 (i.e. right now), and based on the above prediction, you reach that number of vehicles with about 20 work weeks of production. I'd be a bit nervous about my plant creating hundreds of cars per day during week 21 and I'm not sure if we have buyers.
It's easy to say "build them and folks will buy them", but these aren't $10 widgets. Demand really REALLY has to be there.
In this specific example, I believe I've talked myself into the idea that a good number for a reservation shut-down would be a projection for the first 6-months of production, which is 61,000.
