Here's a brief sequence of why oil has gotten so much cheaper lately. Keep late 2008 in mind while reading this. Attention spans are apparently short when it comes to black gold.
Anyone can look up the math. For example, North Dakota's Bakken and Three Forks formations have under 8 billion barrels of proved reserves. That's not much more than a year of total U.S. consumption at 18 to 20 mbpd. When you see some wingnut hype kerogen shale as "trillions of barrels" of U.S. oil, they haven't done the math of EROI aka ERoEI aka net energy. You have to superheat kerogen to get usable oil and it's much different than the oil-bearing shale they're fracking in North Dakota and Texas. Many people confuse the two - for the same reason they ignore scientists in other realms. They want to feel patriotic about America's potential, not face actual evidence and boring geological stats.
People tend to equate a lower price with "more" of something, but that's not how finite resources work. If you were stuck on an island with 1,000 cords of wood for the rest of your life and no trees, you'd be stupid to burn it faster just because you could temporarily reach some sticks easier based on how the pile was stacked. But with oil, that's exactly what people do!
The price of oil (after the conventional crude peak) has been dependent on how fast we can get it out of the ground (the flow rate) vs. current consumer demand. The total volume of oil in the ground depletes every second because it's a finite resource. That's the point I want to stress to anyone who thinks an 84 MPG car isn't necessary anymore.
Also, there's no such thing as abiotic oil. A list of oil producing nations past-peak shows that even if oil was magically welling up without organic matter, it's not manifesting itself in real-world finds. It's clearly finite but many people are still refusing to admit it. After just a few weeks of cheaper oil they're already idling wastefully and contemplating V-8 engines. Thanks again, dummies.
- Global conventional crude oil peaked in 2005/2006 (a geological phenomenon, not reversible)
- U.S. oil-bearing shale fracking took up more slack than expected but is only viable at ~$80/barrel.
- OPEC flooded the market with conventional crude oil in an apparent attempt to starve U.S. frackers.
- World demand slacked off again at the same time (late 2008 was also a time of falling demand).
- The price of oil plummeted in late 2014 due to supply vs. demand, not more total oil in the ground.
- Dummies think this means oil is no longer finite or getting physically scarcer each second.
- Projects like the Elio car become less urgent in the minds of dummies. Thanks, dummies!
Anyone can look up the math. For example, North Dakota's Bakken and Three Forks formations have under 8 billion barrels of proved reserves. That's not much more than a year of total U.S. consumption at 18 to 20 mbpd. When you see some wingnut hype kerogen shale as "trillions of barrels" of U.S. oil, they haven't done the math of EROI aka ERoEI aka net energy. You have to superheat kerogen to get usable oil and it's much different than the oil-bearing shale they're fracking in North Dakota and Texas. Many people confuse the two - for the same reason they ignore scientists in other realms. They want to feel patriotic about America's potential, not face actual evidence and boring geological stats.
People tend to equate a lower price with "more" of something, but that's not how finite resources work. If you were stuck on an island with 1,000 cords of wood for the rest of your life and no trees, you'd be stupid to burn it faster just because you could temporarily reach some sticks easier based on how the pile was stacked. But with oil, that's exactly what people do!
The price of oil (after the conventional crude peak) has been dependent on how fast we can get it out of the ground (the flow rate) vs. current consumer demand. The total volume of oil in the ground depletes every second because it's a finite resource. That's the point I want to stress to anyone who thinks an 84 MPG car isn't necessary anymore.
Also, there's no such thing as abiotic oil. A list of oil producing nations past-peak shows that even if oil was magically welling up without organic matter, it's not manifesting itself in real-world finds. It's clearly finite but many people are still refusing to admit it. After just a few weeks of cheaper oil they're already idling wastefully and contemplating V-8 engines. Thanks again, dummies.
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