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Samuel Gompers

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Okay, I get it, you're scared, and you can't do math. FWIW, AR15's have magazines, not clips. Clips do exist, but they're not what you think they are.
Pulling a 1% risk rate out of your imagination is ridiculous. It's none of your business, but I'm barely under the supposed "should have to stay home 'cuz you're gonna die" age limit. Doesn't worry me at all. Also, I strongly suspect that I already had C-19 in Feb, before it was being heavily fearmongered here in the U.S.A. Didn't die, but did feel bad for 3 weeks, and really bad for 1 week. I "self-isolated" until I was better, and didn't try to shut down the lives of 20-30 million other Americans, nor did I ask for $6k+ of debt be saddled on everybody in the country.

The death rate for healthy people is closer to 0.01%. There is a big (2 orders of magnitude) difference between the real risk and your panic-driven, claimed, risk. And yes, I am quite willing to run it. In AZ, I'm surrounded by armed people on a regular basis. You are too, even if you are unaware. They aren't shooting me, and they aren't shooting you. No blood running in the streets like was predicted before Constitutional Carry was passed here ~10 years ago.

Fear-mongering is about control. We are seeing similar death rates from the flu, but thankfully haven't gone into suicidal Chicken Little mode over fear of the flu. We lose 40K+ people in the States to traffic deaths. We know that, and could avoid almost all of those by enacting 5mph speed limits. Fortunately, we haven't gone that insane, though I do remember the 55mph NSL fiasco.

I ride a motorcycle. Far higher risk of me dying in a motorcycle crash that of C-19, but I still ride. I'm an ATGATT kind of guy, but I oppose draconian helmet laws and oppressive fines for rational rates of travel. I wear the gear because of the laws of physics, not because uninformed bureaucrats think they can save me.

All the models that fill you with such fear have been wrong, and are wrong, and will continue to be wrong. Fear and greed sell. Always have, always will. So yes, I'm sad for people who buy into both fear and greed.

I've camped in bear country. I live in an area infested with illegal aliens. I've lived around poisonous snakes. I ride motorcycles knowing that there are drunks and phone obliviots out there that could kill me. Life is full of risk, and it is still wonderful, and still worth living. With joy, and not with fear.

It's time to go back to work. America was built by people who faced their fears, huge risks, wars, death, disease, and trouble of every kind. Nobody gets out of this alive. Heroes and cowards all face death, and are defeated in the end. For those of us who understand, death is not to be feared, because it has already been defeated.
 

Made in USA

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I also don't think the numbers are correct and that they are being used (manipulated) in order to achieve some other agenda. In Ohio they don't mention any "recovered" and the total number of cases just goes up. Is this to instill a little fear? Perhaps. The governor passed an interesting executive order.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/publicorders/Executive-Order-2020-13D.pdf

One part of it reads:

WHEREAS, the third purpose of the TANF program is to "prevent and reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock pregnancies and establish annual numerical goals for preventing and reducing the incidence of these pregnancies"; and

WHEREAS, the fourth purpose of the TANF program is to "encourage the formation and maintenance of two-parent families"; and

So here the governor is pushing his religious beliefs and allocating millions of dollars to his programs using the pandemic as his reasoning.
I mean it implies that if people are married that that somehow would reduce the pandemic.

I think things are going to be messed up for a while, so I'm spending my free time doing woodwork.
 

Watashiwah

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In a broad sense, other than huge economic costs, our collective losses all evolve around ‘fear of risk and risk avoidance.’ We do not have the guts and determination for taking risks and have lost the pleasures of earned success. Whether this is due to an overuse of litigation, gubmint bailouts and entitlements (‘you didn’t build that!), fewer father figures in the family unit, or overzealous use of helmets and knee pads is anyone’s experience and guess. Like opiates do, our pleasure centers have been ‘short circuited’ and we jump to kneejerk, quick ‘solutions’ to avoid the stilted potential ‘downsides’ then wonder and complain when the outcome has grown worse than the original problem. We see this particularly in politics and the economy every day but continue to take what seems to be the easy, quick solution. Today we are realizing, for just one instance, that all that money we saved in buying things Chinese is costing us 10 fold. It doesn’t take much imagination to look around and see where everything gets back to ‘Good, fast, cheap: pick two.’
 

Samuel Gompers

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<SNIP>
Maybe you connect with guns. A man shooting his one clip in an AR15, has a 1 in 100 chance of hitting one person in a moving boat at some distance, say 1 km. Feel like boating in that lake today? Feel sad for anyone who didn't go?
<SNIP>
I failed to mention the obvious in my previous post. Not only does your "clip" reference indicate and ignorance about firearms, your range and accuracy errors show your failure to understand math and risk. A standard AR15 has a range of about 600 yards. 400 if you want any kind of accuracy with take-down power. 1 km is about 1093 yards. The chances of dying in your scenario would be about the same as C-19. Hitting a moving target at that range with a standard AR15 just isn't going to happen. Yeah, I'd take that risk.
Perhaps with a fully customized AR15, with an extraordinarily skilled shooter, on a perfectly calm day, and a very slow boat, there might be a small risk.

Unintentionally, you made a good example. Essentially no risk to the boater, essentially no risk to the healthy American under 80 from C19.

The original stated goal of the lockdown was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. It quickly morphed into un-Constitutional house arrest until death and risk are eliminated from the world.

Perhaps I should be concerned about people wearing masks rather than just feeling sad for them. People that fearful may also be willing to turn dictatorial power over to power-hungry people, and America may truly be at risk. Looking around, the "perhaps" seems to be superfluous.
 

Maurtis

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Okay, I get it, you're scared, and you can't do math.

Why do you keep saying he cannot do math? It seems you think the numbers being produced are wrong, and in that case any math you do is just as wrong as the math he does.

FWIW, I have two friends with PhDs in mathematics that are staying home and are admittedly scared. They can do the math and for them, the risk is too high to "get back to normal". Your bar for risk is different than theirs.

Trying to insult people by saying they "can't do math" in this case is pretty silly. You make some good points, but no need to try to insult their intelligence in this debate.

That being said, we are all on an Elio forum so we all probably have a few screws loose ;)
 
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Samuel Gompers

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Why do you keep saying he cannot do math? It seems you think the numbers being produced are wrong, and in that case any math you do is just as wrong as the math he does.

FWIW, I have two friends with PhDs in mathematics that are staying home and are admittedly scared. They can do the math and for them, the risk is too high to "get back to normal". Your bar for risk is different than theirs.

Trying to insult people by saying they "can't do math" in this case is pretty silly. You make some good points, but no need to try to insult their intelligence in this debate.

That being said, we are all on an Elio forum so we all probably have a few screws loose ;)
Can't do math / won't do math / doesn't understand what the numbers mean - is it an insult to state the truth? AriLea doubled the effective range of the AR15 to increase the perceived risk. Not to mention he failed to take into account motion of the boat and wind drift. Math.

He missed the death rate by 2 orders of magnitude. Math.

"Risk" is about probabilities and statistics. Math.

On the other hand, according to your anecdotal evidence, having a PhD in mathematics doesn't mean a person understands the real world of risk and probability. There has been a 2 month drumbeat of fear and death, where even rational people have shut off the logic portion of their brain, and are running on fear and emotion.

People who read Elio's financials and understood math, at least as it applied to accounting and business, knew that the project would not reach production. The numbers were quite clear. Math. (and Accounting) Lots of people don't understand math. Saying so is not an insult. It's sad, but it's not an insult.

There has always been a dissonance between people who act primarily on logic and those who act primarily on emotion. Ideally, both emotion and logic should influence our decisions, but when powerful emotions like fear are fed, they overcome the logic of many otherwise reasonable and rational people.
 

3wheelin

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That's why they call me stubby.
snubnosed.jpg
:lol::D.....or snubby!
 

Made in USA

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Be mindful that most battery manufacturers are actively trying to remove cobalt from their batteries.
Yes, but that may take years to develop and even longer to manufacture. Cobalt is used because they found something that works relatively well. I expect that cobalt will be used in batteries for at least another decade or two. Then who knows? Besides, cobal is also used in metal alloys for strength/hardness. There are other markets besides batteries. Still looking forward to them restarting the refinery.
And then there's this: https://www.energy.gov/energy-storage-grand-challenge/energy-storage-grand-challenge-public-workshops

Maybe the government(s) will help get them going also. (They don't need it, but it could help).
 
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