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Here’s A Great Article On The Future Of Electric Cars In The United States...

Discussion in 'General Elio Discussion' started by ElioWallSteet, May 16, 2018.

  1. ElioWallSteet

    ElioWallSteet Elio Aficionado

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  2. Doctor Why

    Doctor Why New Member

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    While those are some curious estimates, they are also pretty conservative in some ways.

    For example, one easy solution to the range problem is similar to that done with natural gas. If the CONTAINERS for the energy are all identical and considered swappable, a vehicle designed for it could be 'recharged' in no more time than it took to swap the batteries. Yes, those batteries are pretty heavy but they could be bundled together and handled with tools, if the car was made for it.

    Resources, likewise, are only limited until we find them. Investors are already eyeing asteroid Psyche which is thought to have the same constitution as Earth's solid metal core and be worth ten quadrillion dollars in raw materials (link). Sometimes we don't even try to find resources until they're valuable enough. Peak oil was a big thing until the price got high, and then we found more and more ways of getting at different kinds of oil. Maybe lithium will be a problem in the near future, but certainly not in the long future.

    There is also the strong possibilities of disruptive technologies. I know of at least two major companies that have declared they will have finished the development of electric vertical-takeoff taxis in TEN YEARS (one example). If these prove true, ROADS might will be obsolete shortly thereafter, so cars will only be useful for visiting your neighbors or filling out your nostalgic collection.
     
  3. Sailor Dog

    Sailor Dog Elio Addict

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    Electric vehicles have been available since the mid 1830s. Mass adoption has proved to be elusive. Barron's cover story a couple weeks back predicted more ICE vehicles in 2030 than today...in the billions more. Much more efficient as well. The future maybe more EV but also many more ICE vehicles. Don't be in such a hurry! Or you might be deeply disappointed...
     
  4. RSchneider

    RSchneider Elio Addict

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    The US will be one of the last to adopt EV's on a mass scale. It's just the way it is. We are behind on many things but you'd never know it unless you travel to other countries. Europe and Asia embrace new technology where we get dragged into it. It's good because they work out the bugs before we get to use it. EV's will appeal to the younger generations and not so much for older. They real key here is that there's so much potential for EV's and not for ICE. This is because we are splitting hairs when it comes to ICE efficiency. The big gains have already been done and everything from here on out are just tiny. ICE is not going to see a magical breakthrough in efficiency but as for EV's it'll happen soon.

    I can see the younger generations using an EV as an and vehicle. They would own a crew cab F150 to use for hauling the family and stuff in the bed but use an EV for everyday driving back and forth to work. Then if they have a 4-5 seater EV with a trunk or hatch, they can still use if for limited family functions on the weekend. Older generations need something that'll get 700 miles an a tank because they just need to and will stick with gas because of range and recharging anxiety.

    This is no different with how many still write checks at the grocery store, never get rid of their landline and never trust ApplePay or AndroidPay. In the end, you still need to have checks, landlines and a credit card that you swipe. Might be outdated technology but it still needs to be there.
     
  5. CrimsonEclipse

    CrimsonEclipse Elio Addict

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    Meh. NYT is really missing a few points.
    "There are not enough places to recharge."

    Not really a problem yet. and private companies will happily take up the slack.
    Business abhors a vacuum.
    Also, 95% of all charging will happen at home.

    "Electric cars will go mainstream when the cost of the powertrain — the motor and other guts that make the vehicle move — is the same as owning cars that burn gasoline or diesel. How soon that day arrives is almost solely a function of the price of batteries."

    Not really. It's when the total cost of ownership beats ICE's, which is almost (or already) there.

    "Lithium is scarce"

    Not so much. It abundant and easily recyclable. It also assumes that other technologies won't be available in the next 10 years like non lithium batteries to capacitors.

    So, not really a "Great" article.
     
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  6. Rob Croson

    Rob Croson Elio Addict

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    The Japanese have recently found huge deposits of rare earths laying around on the ocean floor. Now they just have to figure out how to economically, and safely mine them. If the price goes high enough, they will.

    Also, the VW-funded Electrify America program is just getting started. As part of their settlement for Dieselgate, they set aside $2B to fund the building of EV charging stations across the country. California gets $800M, and the rest of the $1.2B will be sread across the country. That will fund a LOT of charging stations.

    But, yeah, most people charge at home. I know I do.
     
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