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I Think I Finally Found The Fabled '$1,000' Profit Per Autocycle Sold Claim...

RSchneider

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They did, actually. They had priced out something like 90% of the vehicle parts with their suppliers to come up with the price. The other 10%, they used best estimates based on prices for similar items.
Plus, the cost to build the Elio is only $4388.

As for the profit, since Elio was going to price it at $5969 and make $1K. That means at $7450 they will make $2481 per unit and at 250K units that's $620,500,000 in profit per year before we add into the profit of the accessories. With that at 20% and lets say people only get $1K in accessories on average, that's $200 profit per unit and that means $50,000,000. The grand total of Elio profit per year is $670,500,000. Elio only needs $411M. Any investor that gives them that money will get a return on their investment 18 months into production. Then after that, they could rake in a half a billion the next year and leave the rest to Elio. After that Elio can keep the rest.

Anyone out there want to make half a billion dollars?
 

Samuel Gompers

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<SNIP>

Well after two months of searching, I found it! The reason people couldn't find it is because it's really obscure <SNIP>

The reason "people" couldn't find it is because the weren't looking in the obvious places. The info has been in every annual report Elio filed with the SEC, up until they stopped filing reports. When serious investors read the reports, Elio was unable to obtain financing. The reports are still available in lots of places, but otcmarkets.com is an easy place to find them. They make an interesting read, especially if you have an accounting/investing/finance/business background.

Here's just a few highlights from the Risk Factors section:
The Elio is still in development, and we do not expect to start delivering vehicles to customers until late 2019.
We have a history of losses and we expect significant increases in our costs and expenses to result in continuing losses for at least the foreseeable future.
We have a significant working capital deficiency.
We may not be able to obtain adequate financing to continue our operations.
Our proposed budgets are likely to change.
If we are unable to establish and maintain confidence about our liquidity and business prospects among consumers and within our industry, then our financial condition, operating results and business prospects may suffer.
We may experience significant delays in the design, manufacture, launch and financing of the Elio vehicle which could harm our business and prospects.
If we are unable to implement and maintain effective internal control over financial reporting in the future, the
accuracy and timeliness of our financial reporting may be adversely affected. In addition, because of our status as an emerging growth company, you will not be able to depend on any attestation from our independent registered public accounting firm as to our internal control over financial reporting for the foreseeable future.
If we are unable to manage our growth and expand our operations successfully, our business and operating results will be harmed and our reputation may be damaged.
Our business and prospects depend on the strength of our marketing efforts and our brand. Failure to maintain and enhance our brand would harm our ability to maintain and expand our base of customers.
Our bill-of-materials cost may exceed our current targeted base price for an Elio.
 

RSchneider

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Did anyone here reserve one when the price was $5959? If so when did you do it? I just checked on the Elio website and over 2 years ago they said the sticker price was $7526. If that's the case, the Elio is now $8031 and in 2021 it'll be $8326 (assuming 2% inflation). Tack on the $500 for USMCA then you got $8826. This has to happen if Elio is looking to make that $1K profit per car. He can't freeze prices. When all of you are paying $5500 when you get yours in 2021, Elio will be losing $2326 per car. Multiply that by 21,195 then you have a loss of $49,299,570. If everyone adds $1K in options and there's a 20% markup, then the loss is just over $44M in the first 21,195 cars. This is because there's a $7K locked in price but the $1K deposit was spent years ago and there was the $500 bonus. So the cost out of pocket for you in 2021 is only $5500.

This is all assuming that their numbers are correct and this is a turnkey operation. If it is "manufacturing hell" like everyone else goes through then those losses could easily go up 50%. Just ask Elon. He had 10 years of manufacturing experience before he went mass production.

I'll revise my request. Anyone have a 3/4 of a billion dollars?
 

Samalross

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They did, actually. They had priced out something like 90% of the vehicle parts with their suppliers to come up with the price. The other 10%, they used best estimates based on prices for similar items.
Based on 250k sales. The reservationists average age will be around 65 by 2021. The car will be perceived as an old person car. A volume of 50k would probably be optimistic. Pricing will go up drastically per unit at that sales rate.
 

84mpg

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Based on 250k sales. The reservationists average age will be around 65 by 2021. The car will be perceived as an old person car. A volume of 50k would probably be optimistic. Pricing will go up drastically per unit at that sales rate.
Where did you get the average age of 65 by 2021? Is that number buried in some of Elio’s info? Or is that your guesstimate?
 

Samalross

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Where did you get the average age of 65 by 2021? Is that number buried in some of Elio’s info? Or is that your guesstimate?
Guesstimate. I figured that the average age of a reservationist was fifty when they reserved. Young people think 40 year olds are geezers. Will not be many people under 40 driving the first 65000 vehicles.
 

84mpg

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Guesstimate. I figured that the average age of a reservationist was fifty when they reserved. Young people think 40 year olds are geezers. Will not be many people under 40 driving the first 65000 vehicles.
Gotcha.... no doubt around here there’s a bunch of old geezers. I’m one of them....

My son will eventually be commuting about 150 miles a day. He’ll get an Elio if available. He’s 29.

I wonder what the average age of the VW bug buyer was?
 

Rickb

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Gotcha.... no doubt around here there’s a bunch of old geezers. I’m one of them....

My son will eventually be commuting about 150 miles a day. He’ll get an Elio if available. He’s 29.

I wonder what the average age of the VW bug buyer was?
My first car back in 1963 @ 16 years of age was a ‘59 VW Bug. One of my favorite cars! The VW appealed to a wide range of age demographics which is why it was so wildly popular. The Elio would likely have appealed to a wide range of demographics, as will the Arcimoto FUV and ElectraMecannica SOLO. Public acceptance/appeal of a for the people three wheeler EV is about to be proven as the FUV & SOLO begin delivering their first retail vehicles.

2C1D4C47-9CD0-4D4B-AA1A-1981BDFAF3C1.jpeg


Note: I don’t understand how one can say I’d buy the Elio, FUV, SOLO, or any other vehicle without a test drive and physically kicking the tires to verify performance, handling, build quality, to insure it meets your needs and expectations.
 
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RSchneider

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I wonder what the average age of the VW bug buyer was?
depends. They sold the Beetle here for many years. It really never took off until the late 50. So lets say 1955. Then the beetle bit the dust in the US in 1979. The last few years of the Beetle in Mexico were around $5500 (USD equivalent) and they were just under the price point to get taxed. Even VW couldn't make a profit with them for that market. That was building them at the Puebla plant and that was around 1995 on to the final one in 2003.

So for Elio to be able to produce their brand new car for just slightly over that cost in 2013, that's quite an accomplishment. VW was using a design from the 40's and a plant from the 60's. I guess three wheels does save you money because those beetles did not have ABS, TC, Stability, Airbags, AC, Electric windows or electric locks. Beetle had only a fan for cooling, no rad or hoses, I guess with the single front hood latch and single door plus subtracting a wheel, Elio was able to out do VW. That Beetle today would cost $9200 still being built by Mexicans in a Mexican plant and immune to USMCA regulations.
 
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