Invitation Only Event La Area

[Johnny Acree]

I don't understand how they can start at 70% capacity. I hope thats true as mine will be built on day 7 and by the end of week 2 there will be 7000 built.
I think its more reasonable to GUESS that the first month will be much slower & slowly ramp up. Thanks for the info Mr Pistonboy

Here is another way to look at it.
Up to 70% by the end of first 45 days and up to 100% by the end of 90 days.

 

[WilliamH]

I don't understand how they can start at 70% capacity. I hope thats true as mine will be built on day 7 and by the end of week 2 there will be 7000 built.
I think its more reasonable to GUESS that the first month will be much slower & slowly ramp up. Thanks for the info Mr Pistonboy

"For the first 45 days, enough people to staff two shifts will be working together on one shift.
They will start at 70% of capacity and increase to 100% capacity by end of the 45 day period.
For the next 45 days, these two groups of people will split up and operate two shifts.
Once again they will start at 70% and increase to 100% by the end of that 45 day period.
At day 90, they are expecting to be at 1000 per day (100%) which is a yearly rate of 250,000 per year, and remain at that rate.
They are expecting to produce essentially 250,000 vehicles during their first 12 months."
(Paul Elio as related by "Pistonboy")
-------------------------------------
OK! This is what I got from it.
Looks like 7 day / week production schedule.
They will start at 350 cars / day and increase to 500 cars a day/shift over the next 45 days.
(one shift only - double staffed / teamed)
Then
They will split the teams in half and build 350 cars/ day/shift and increase to 500 cars / day/shift over the next 90 days.
That's 700 / calendar day increasing to 1000 / calendar day.
That assumes a perfect world.
Now, we need to apply a factor for Mr. Murphy and other down time.
My guess is more like 60 days rather than 45 which would take it out to 120 days to run at speed.
Based on that, my "guess, and only a guess" is about 120 days to fill all of the current reservations.
That might mean non-reservation sales as early as November/16 .......... Depending on when they start their production run.

 

[Ty]

I'm with you on this, i.e. 250k for the first year seems unsettling and unlikely. Even IF demand is there, I just see there being too many chances for many-less-than-expected being produced for a given week or month, due to circumstances beyond Elio's control.

We've had many versions of a report of their plans for ramp-up for production. Anyway, this information is good to hear, in that they have a goal.

"For the first 45 days, enough people to staff two shifts will be working together on one shift. They will start at 70% of capacity and increase to 100% capacity by end of the 45 day period. For the next 45 days, these two groups of people will split up and operate two shifts. Once again they will start at 70% and increase to 100% by the end of that 45 day period. At day 90, they are expecting to be at 1000 per day (100%) which is a yearly rate of 250,000 per year, and remain at that rate. They are expecting to produce essentially 250,000 vehicles during their first 12 months."

For the 45-day period, is that 45 calendar days, or 45 work days? I think we all assume it's 45 calendar days. I know Ty has the experience and mindset that it is doable, to be producing 500 per day at the end of 6.5 weeks, and then 1000 by end of 3 months. Correct, Ty? Just because I have trouble wrapping my brain around it, doesn't mean it can't happen.

Yes. It's absolutely possible to make that many cars at that plant. I'd like to take a moment and explain how. I'll keep the math minimal.

Assembling vehicles is a more appropriate way to look at what Elio will be doing versus thinking of them as a manufacturer. Suppliers will do most of the manufacturing - everything from door skins to steering wheels...

Each assembly line has a series of jobs that are done one right after the other. As soon as a person at, say, station 100 puts the headlights in place, they get ready to put headlights on the next vehicle. While that person is doing that one job, up and down the line people are doing all the other jobs that go into making a vehicle. When you think about it, if you were to walk next to your Elio from the first station till it was driven out the doors, you may be walking for a few hours watching each person putting something else on your Elio or connecting something that was put on by someone else. You might come away from the experience thinking "Wow, it took them three hours to build my Elio so they can probably make less than 3 of them per 8 hour shift" You would be right IF only one process can be done at a time. Obviously, each worker will repeat their small part of the assembly over and over all day long as cars pass by them.

My job at GM was to make sure that each job on the assembly line took less than 52 seconds to accomplish. Now, at the time, GM ran the line a little slower but only by a couple of seconds. When it comes to serial production (or assembly in this case), you can only build cars as fast as the slowest station (if the process takes too long, they'll just add another of the same work station next to the first on the line so that each station works on every other car). In other words, if it takes 2 minutes to install a windshield and you can only do 1 at a time, you can only produce one car every 2 minutes. In Elio's case, they will be able to produce at least one vehicle every 52 seconds. (I haven't been there in a while but surely the line isn't SLOWER than it used to be.

So, Elio can at least make one vehicle every 54 seconds just like we did with GM. Elio says they'll run at 70% capacity which is a fancy way of saying 70% of the line's top speed. That means they'll make one Elio every 77 seconds. That's 46 per hour or 368 per shift. T(Theoretical top speed would put out one Elio per 54 seconds or 533 per shift which is 1066 per two shifts * 5 days * 50 weeks = 266,500 per year.)

Some people may be saying "But, it'll take a long time for the assembly workers to get up to speed." Those people are wrong. If you perform a job 368 times in a day, how many days would it take before you "got it"? Here's a stupid case... IF Elio ran the line at 10% capacity for one day, each person on the line would have done their job 36 times. It's absurd to think it would take someone that many times to complete a 54 second automotive assembly job correctly. Anyway, the ramp-up period is more about figuring out just HOW to get all the parts to the line in time and where to park all those brand new Elios.

Because the Elios will come in two configurations, (the line workers aren't affected by color) there won't be a single complicated job on the line. There was only one complicated job at the GM facility that I saw and that was assembling the cross body harness because it was a two person job that involved threading the harness through the firewall from the engine bay into the interior. The Elio will be much more simple.

Bonus info:
*Parts are delivered from the line via a little train-like tug from a central "grocery store".
*There is a train spur right in the building where GM would receive many parts.
*There was a supervisor for about every 10 or so line jobs. That person would take over for someone who "couldn't hold it any longer" to prevent line shut-downs
*The windshield installation station was the neatest to me to watch as there was a robot that ran a bead of adhesive around the thing.
*The air bags were scanned more than a couple times along with the VIN to ensure they tracked which ones were with which vehicle.
*They parked all the cars ON the left hand white lines in the parking lot to ensure even spacing.
*I drove a Ford Probe while I worked there.
*No one ever messed with it.
*I'm retiring from the Air Force in the next year and would love to do industrial engineering for Elio though I know I wouldn't be the best choice.

 

[NSTG8R]

Nice job breaking it down, Ty!

 

[Ian442]

Ty thank you for your service. 2A353 here. U-2 planes .

 

[WilliamH]

"For the first 45 days, enough people to staff two shifts will be working together on one shift.
They will start at 70% of capacity and increase to 100% capacity by end of the 45 day period.
For the next 45 days, these two groups of people will split up and operate two shifts.
Once again they will start at 70% and increase to 100% by the end of that 45 day period.
At day 90, they are expecting to be at 1000 per day (100%) which is a yearly rate of 250,000 per year, and remain at that rate.
They are expecting to produce essentially 250,000 vehicles during their first 12 months."
(Paul Elio as related by "Pistonboy")
-------------------------------------
OK! This is what I got from it.
Looks like 7 day / week production schedule.
They will start at 350 cars / day and increase to 500 cars a day/shift over the next 45 days.
(one shift only - double staffed / teamed)
Then
They will split the teams in half and build 350 cars/ day/shift and increase to 500 cars / day/shift over the next 90 days.
That's 700 / calendar day increasing to 1000 / calendar day.
That assumes a perfect world.
Now, we need to apply a factor for Mr. Murphy and other down time.
My guess is more like 60 days rather than 45 which would take it out to 120 days to run at speed.
Based on that, my "guess, and only a guess" is about 120 days to fill all of the current reservations.
That might mean non-reservation sales as early as November/16 .......... Depending on when they start their production run.

Just looked at my numbers..........
It won't be 7 day weeks. that would be 365K / yr.
The principal is still pretty much the same.

 

[Truett Collins]

I don't understand how they can start at 70% capacity. I hope thats true as mine will be built on day 7 and by the end of week 2 there will be 7000 built.
I think its more reasonable to GUESS that the first month will be much slower & slowly ramp up. Thanks for the info Mr Pistonboy

That is 70% for one line.... Think about it, one line is 50% capacity for the factory, and that 70% is 70% of 50%.

 

[Rickb]

I have more interest in how many P5-P30's they can crank out and in what time frame. Several months is a long time for the P5 let alone the next P25 builds.

 

[HHH]

Eric's view of future demand --

My guess is demand will exceed 250K per year within 3 years of startup. It may rise to three or four hundred thou in 5 years, depending on the price of gas. Fleet sales will account for a good portion of that as municipalities see that the car really does work and really is cheap to buy and maintain. Exports will be a big part of the business within 5 years, and most of the business within 10 years -- though the relatively large family sizes elsewhere in the world may slow that down.

(I I can just see an Elio with roof rack and trailer hitch with a family of 8 clinging to it in some place like Cambodia. If you've ever seen 5 on a motor scooter, I guess the elio would be a huge step up)

You make a strong case for future exports to the huge Chinese market where family size has been limited for over a generation.

 

[Jake]

Free beer, free beer, and free food. (Had 2 beers) No new info. Had a smoke with Jerome. Said Hey to Paul. Talked to some of the Elio minions. Watched a newsie take a test drive. I did not get ANY info I haven't seen on this blog. One guy had green hair & I think it was not an Elio thing, just a typical LA dude.
Lots and lots of grey hair. (Need a poll on Elio age group?) Fun time but had hoped for some earth shattering announcement. Nutso place to have this event. No parking and right by LAX so traffic was hell. Overall I am ahead of most of you. I have a t-shirt, 2 beers, and some food for my $1,000.
Sorry but my pictures are nothing you haven't seen before

Larry & I at LA presser & Owners drooling on P4. I'm the guy NOT smiling.