Month 2 And Clock Is Ticking

[RUCRAYZE]

I understand that they are STILL optimistic about starting production by 12/31/16 ... but how many cars will have been produced by then is open to question. My own guess is that they'll MAYBE start up in January or February, but that is my guess, not based on information I have. Still don't have my Navdy, either!

I thought I read 7013 units will be initially produced :-)

 

[Ekh]

One thing it’s worth remembering is that the E cars do not necessarily have to be built to completion. For instance, you may not need a complete engine in a car where a block of metal the same weight and dimensions will do. If you’re testing durability of the door hinges, you don’t need a fancy paint job to do that. And so forth.

Most will be built to completion, but it saves both time and money if some don’t have to be fully detailed. I'm sure that they know EXACTLY which cars are slated for which tests (and I do know for sure that some cars will serve for multiple tests). That whole thing is fully mapped out and should run on rails -- as soon as they have the test vehicles built.

Long poles will be getting all the tooling and parts from suppliers timely enough. In some cases, the suppliers are being asked to make major investments in tooling to produce 25 units instead of 250, 000 units! That's asking a lot -- and may not put EM at the top of the supplier's production priority list. Frankly, I'm amazed that they've gotten as far as they have with as little money as they have. Bravo, Paul and team.

 

[John Painter]

Looking at this chart they won't start production until Jan 1 at the earliest and more likely sometime in February -- how nice to have the chart confirm my WAG (wild-ass guess)

I guess it depends on what one considers "production", but if the S1 builds are being validated in Month 13, wouldn't that suggest EM has already begun building vehicles on the line prior to that to evaluate and refine the process for full production? I am thinking, looking at their timeline and what PE has said about the production process, the 120 or so vehicles EM has said they'll be taking off from the front end for various purposes (I'm guessing refining the build process on the lines, some pomp and circumstance for early reservation holders, and marketing, etc) will indeed be happening this year. Thoughts? Debate?

 

[Ekh]

I guess it depends on what one considers "production", but if the S1 builds are being validated in Month 13, wouldn't that suggest EM has already begun building vehicles on the line prior to that to evaluate and refine the process for full production? I am thinking, looking at their timeline and what PE has said about the production process, the 120 or so vehicles EM has said they'll be taking off from the front end for various purposes (I'm guessing refining the build process on the lines, some pomp and circumstance for early reservation holders, and marketing, etc) will indeed be happening this year. Thoughts? Debate?

Dunno. Seems like we're holding EM accountable for a lot of things that are fine on paper, but which reality may interfere with in any number of ways from tornadoes to not getting the ATVM loan guarantee to pterodactyls materializing from a Louisiana swamp. We're all hoping like mad that all the pieces fall together as planned and on time. But life so rarely works that way!

I'm feeling, as some others do, that if thing gets delayed too long I'll be too old to buy and drive it! But for now, I'm trying to be patient. I do know that the folks at EM are running 90 miles an hour and some things are falling through the cracks. They have only 17 full-timers, and that's going to have to scale up abruptly -- but searching for good folks itself takes time! So they're pressured by finance, pressured by timing, and pressured by lack of people. Finally, they're pressured by Paul Elio being in essence the sole decision maker on anything regarding the actual vehicle.

They are going to get it done or die trying -- and the stress levels cannot be good for anyone's health.

Meanwhile -- they deserve our support. And at least a little tolerance when things inevitably come unglued.

 

[Rickb]

Having the plant tooled for production, employees hired/trained, parts inventoried, 50,000 IAV engines built/ready to cradle, and all that's necessary to officially START production is to push the START button to start the line........is ready for production whether Q4 2016 or March 2017.

 

[John Painter]

Having the plant tooled for production, employees hired/trained, parts inventoried, 50,000 IAV engines built/ready to cradle, and all that's necessary to officially START production is to push the START button to start the line........is ready for production whether Q4 2016 or March 2017.

Any thoughts on the lead time Nemak needs for casting?

 

[slinches]

They don't need 50k engines to start production. Just a few thousand will do to cover the first builds until they can get a new batch delivered.

 

[Rickb]

Dunno. Seems like we're holding EM accountable for a lot of things that are fine on paper, but which reality may interfere with in any number of ways from tornadoes to not getting the ATVM loan guarantee to who pterodactyls materializing from a Louisiana swamp. We're all hoping like mad that all the pieces fall together as planned and on time. But life so rarely works that way!

I'm feeling, as some others do, that if thing gets delayed too long I'll be too old to buy and drive it! But for now, I'm trying to be patient. I do know that the folks at EM are running 90 miles an hour and some things are falling through the cracks. They have only 17 full-timers, and that's going to have to scale up abruptly -- but searching for good folks itself takes time! So they're pressured by finance, pressured by timing, and pressured by lack of people. Finally, they're pressured by Paul Elio being in essence the sole decision maker on anything regarding the actual vehicle.

They are going to get it done or die trying -- and the stress levels cannot be good for anyone's health.

Meanwhile -- they deserve our support. And at least a little tolerance when things inevitably come unglued.

I don't think Paul Elio is the sole decision maker..........he has a Board of Directors that discuss issues and develops the plan of action. He may make the final decision, but he is not in it alone. A high salaried CEO position should be stressful. Elio and his BOD know exactly what they are doing.

EM has our support.......both emotional and financial..............most of us have been/are tolerant........with varying degrees of future tolerance if production pushes much beyond March 2017. The next three months of E Building/Testing milestone goal will show and tell us armchair quarterbacks alot.

 

[Rickb]

They don't need 50k engines to start production. Just a few thousand will do to cover the first builds until they can get a new batch delivered.

I know that, but there needs to be an engine manufacturing facility with trained employees ready to crank out batches of engines as needed. The engine manufacturing process may be as or more complicated the manufacturing the Elio itself.

 

[Rickb]

Any thoughts on the lead time Nemak needs for casting?

No, but when it's announced that all those pre-production requirements are lined up and ready......production can start at any time.