Mpg Matters, Regardless Of Gas Prices (original Elio Concept Reminder)

[Elio Amazed]

Compare the "export" vs "import" figures on USA crude oil.

Willie

In 2014, the U.S. imported 3.372904 billion more barrels than it exported.
Source: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_a.htm

 

[JCar]

If you want to reduce gasoline consumption the best thing you could do would be ban high-MPG cars. The Elio will increase gasoline consumption. Look up Jevon's Paradox. Cars are more efficient than ever, but we use more oil than ever: Paradox.

I know of that paradox, but it's only true to a point. Even if everyone drove a car that averaged 60 MPG vs everyone averaging 30 MPG, there's only so much driving people can do in a day, especially during the work week with time constraints. Unless everyone started taking really long vacations on weekends in a (cramped) Elio, it seems unlikely that more fuel would be burned. Human behavior has proven hard to predict in unusual times of fluctuating prices and uncertainty.

I do agree that greed tends to prevail and conservation is mostly done when forced. Inevitable higher oil prices will end up doing the forcing for most people.

 

[JCar]

67% of all US electricity generation comes from fossil fuel burning : Add to that the current challenges in recycling lithium batteries , and only casual environmentalists yearn for electric cars . We may be a decade away from Hydro/Electric vehicles which would make infinitely more sense than running out and buying a rolling toaster.

Coal = 39%
Natural gas = 27%
Nuclear = 19%
Hydropower = 6%
Other renewables = 7%

Well, I assume you know that batteries use energy much more efficiently than heat-wasting internal combustion engines. And large power plants have economies of scale for further efficiency vs. individual fossil-fuel engines. Batteries are ideal for commuter cars and I hold out hope for a "miracle" battery that solves issues with nasty chemicals and charges fading over time.

 

[JCar]

Grammar apologies for Mpg vs. MPG in the title, as this site auto-formats into Title Case and I didn't notice.

 

[JCar]

Yes, there is a myth going around that America is somehow a net oil exporter. It's a lot more technical than that, involving this temporary glut situation and oil as a global commodity. We are hardly energy independent, and a few years of shale oil (net supply, not all burned in that time-frame) is only a temporary boost.

The contribution from U.S. shale only created a glut because OPEC crude oil remained the bedrock of global supply. If shale had to carry demand on its own we'd be crashing hard. The U.S. is only producing about half the oil it consumes and can't even begin to feed the world's 90 million barrel per day habit without a conventional crude base.

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

I know of that paradox, but it's only true to a point. Even if everyone drove a car that averaged 60 MPG vs everyone averaging 30 MPG, there's only so much driving people can do in a day, especially during the work week with time constraints. Unless everyone started taking really long vacations on weekends in a (cramped) Elio, it seems unlikely that more fuel would be burned.

Again, you are confusing microeconomics - the actions of individuals - vs. macroeconomic - the broad consequences of those actions on an entire economy.

You're assuming gasoline would be used by same number of people using it today and be using it the same way they do today after fuel economy doubled. If you understood Jevon's Paradox, you would understand that doubling of efficiency would cause the resource to be used by more people and in more ways than it's used now. If Elio and others succeed in cutting oil use in half, it's price will fall sharply. Economics 101. That will encourage more people to drive farther (well-proven when gas price goes down, miles-per-person goes up). That also might make it cheap enough for electric companies to use more oil for power plants. Other industries might use in other ways I'm not thinking of. You can be certain the oil companies will do their damnedest to find ways to sell their products to make up for the revenue loss. They will spend lots of money on lobbyists.

Even if those examples fail, just look at the facts of history: Average fleet fuel economy has been increasing since the mid-1970's (though really since the dawn of the automobile), but gasoline consumption has increased too. Shouldn't happen by your microeconomic theory since average fuel economy has already doubled since 1975! Jevon's Paradox in action.

A side note: Gasoline right now is about the cheapest it has ever been in the entire history of gasoline. (Might have been cheaper in 1998, hard to tell exactly.) Of course, it will go up again periodically, but the overall trend for the last 100 years has been ever-downward. If Messrs. Elio and Musk get their way they will add pressure to that downward trend.