Probability Of Success Of Investment Concerning Timing Of Various Down Payment Options.

[Charles]

I thought of adding this in with my other thread creation, but my text got to the size that this really needed to be separate thread. As someone in the Finance / Accounting field I haven't seen 'timing' discussed nearly as much as I would expect concerning the down payment / reservation. Perhaps that's because such a large portion of the people on here have already made a reservation so it's a 'moot point' once that happens.

I don't see why I would consider putting $100 all in today, Rather than a $1000 All-IN in the future.

For example: Someone putting down a $1000 all-in in 6-9 Months could be taking a much smaller risk overall than someone putting down $100 all-in today. Assume that today there is a 25% chance of success*. In 9 months it is clear the company will be producing and there is a 95% Chance of success , (On the other hand if things looks less likely you may not invest at all.).
Probability wise your expected outcome is to to lose $75 on the $100 investment. You expect to lose $50 on the $1000. The person placing the $1000 bet took much less risk and gets their car sooner. Yes just like placing a single bet at a roulette table you are going to either win or lose. I.e. It might be similar to place a thousand dollar bet split between Black and Even on a roulette table or placing a $100 on the number 20. In a single bet you will either Win or Lose, but you can diagnose the probability beforehand.

(I don't think anyone in a general public really has a good estimate of Elios success at this point, so these numbers are entirely made up) I haven't purchase at all in this point, I'm just comparing the options. - Anyone at the top of the list have cold feet, feel free to contact me.

For me, I would probably go All-IN $1000 or not invest at all.

I'm pretty decent with numbers, but I don't tend to be the "Smartest Person in the Room" much of the time. Any thoughts on my thoughts?

*Sucess: define success how you'd like. For me I'm defining success as either they meet the All-IN reservations, or perhaps even meet my "All-IN" reservation.

 

[Brainmatter]

I thought of adding this in with my other thread creation, but my text got to the size that this really needed to be separate thread. As someone in the Finance / Accounting field I haven't seen 'timing' discussed nearly as much as I would expect concerning the down payment / reservation. Perhaps that's because such a large portion of the people on here have already made a reservation so it's a 'moot point' once that happens.

I don't see why I would consider putting $100 all in today, Rather than a $1000 All-IN in the future.

For example: Someone putting down a $1000 all-in in 6-9 Months could be taking a much smaller risk overall than someone putting down $100 all-in today. Assume that today there is a 25% chance of success*. In 9 months it is clear the company will be producing and there is a 95% Chance of success , (On the other hand if things looks less likely you may not invest at all.).
Probability wise your expected outcome is to to lose $75 on the $100 investment. You expect to lose $50 on the $1000. The person placing the $1000 bet took much less risk and gets their car sooner. Yes just like placing a single bet at a roulette table you are going to either win or lose. I.e. It might be similar to place a thousand dollar bet split between Black and Even on a roulette table or placing a $100 on the number 20. In a single bet you will either Win or Lose, but you can diagnose the probability beforehand.

(I don't think anyone in a general public really has a good estimate of Elios success at this point, so these numbers are entirely made up) I haven't purchase at all in this point, I'm just comparing the options. - Anyone at the top of the list have cold feet, feel free to contact me.

For me, I would probably go All-IN $1000 or not invest at all.

I'm pretty decent with numbers, but I don't tend to be the "Smartest Person in the Room" much of the time. Any thoughts on my thoughts?

*Sucess: define success how you'd like. For me I'm defining success as either they meet the All-IN reservations, or perhaps even meet my "All-IN" reservation.

I have to say that this is right along with my reasoning for going all-in at $1000 right now. We differ in specifics, but the general idea is right along with my thinking.
That said I want Elio to be a runaway success. But I believe that ultimately this will be a niche vehicle, and long term prospects are slim. Best result IMO is it will be a springboard to another project that is more mainstream, and Elio is a success.
But I still want one of these. So I'm taking the chance and giving Elio the best chance I can.

 

[goofyone]

This really just comes down to what level of risk people are willing to take with their money.

There are a lot of people who have heard about Elio who are just waiting to see more action in the next six to nine months or so before they decide to jump in as they feel it will be a safer bet at that time.

There are also many people who are hedging their bets by putting in $100 all in now knowing that they can upgrade later and still get the 50% bonus while keeping their risk as low as possible.

I initially dipped my tow in with a $100 all in reservation before raising it to $1K because I believe in the product and know that Elio Motors needs all the support it can get right now as it helps to show potential investors that so many people are wiling to put their money on the line for this product. I did this understanding my own finances and knowing that, even if I may not be happy about it, I could lose the $1K and never even realize it was gone.

 

[Autoxdriver]

There are those who simply might not be able to afford to go $1000 all in at any time, or at least it would be difficult for them to do so. The economy is still in the doldrums and there are a lot of people struggling to make ends meet. The Elio's price point targets these people so I could see someone eating beans for a month to scrape up the extra hundred dollars to go all in now so they can start saving gas in the first year, but not necessarily be able to upgrade to the $1000 all in later.

I myself am in at $100 and do plan on upgrading at a later date. I assume/hope that by going all in at $100 now (actually I think it was about a month ago), when I do upgrade I should be placed ahead in line of someone else who goes $1000 all in at the same time I do. I don't know for a fact that this is true however, but I hope so.

 

[BlioKart]

I myself am in at $100 and do plan on upgrading at a later date. I assume/hope that by going all in at $100 now (actually I think it was about a month ago), when I do upgrade I should be placed ahead in line of someone else who goes $1000 all in at the same time I do. I don't know for a fact that this is true however, but I hope so.

This is me basically

 

[lafrisbee]

I play a little poker. I don't go all-in till I see as many cards as I can, but I ante'd up for a hundred dollars so I can keep getting cards.
If I thought Elio really needed people to give em a grand to make this happen I'd toss in some more chips, but they need tens of millions to get off the ground.
I do feel like this autocycle will be made, and a thou isn't gonna bother me if I am wrong, but just plain sense makes me seem cautious.

 

[WAYNE]

I've been watching the age of the buyers. I think Because of the baby boomer's retiring at a fantastic rate and ready to get whatever their fancy toys might be and older bikers see this as a way to keep going. Also at the mpg this thing gets it's a perfect comfortable road machine for older folks. (no Kids to take.) But bottom line I think folks will see it as a perfect machine for first school car, grocery getter, road trips, commuter, Drag racing (souped up), Patriot Guard Riders (with straight pipes), and just about any other thing in sports you can think of. Basically this thing won't have to set in the garage like the other expensive toys do at a fraction of the price. JMO.

 

[Autoxdriver]

I've been watching the age of the buyers. I think Because of the baby boomer's retiring at a fantastic rate and ready to get whatever their fancy toys might be and older bikers see this as a way to keep going. Also at the mpg this thing gets it's a perfect comfortable road machine for older folks. (no Kids to take.) But bottom line I think folks will see it as a perfect machine for first school car, grocery getter, road trips, commuter, Drag racing (souped up), Patriot Guard Riders (with straight pipes), and just about any other thing in sports you can think of. Basically this thing won't have to set in the garage like the other expensive toys do at a fraction of the price. JMO.

I can absolutely see Elios being towed behind boomers RVs, it would be the perfect vehicle for that. I don't see the attraction of the Elio to motorcycle riders though as some kind of replacement. IMHO It has almost nothing in common with the motorcycle riding experience, which is why people ride, right? No wind, no leaning (riding!), no being out in the elements, no engine noise, etc. etc. You don't ride an Elio, you drive it. It's a car experience, not a bike experience IMHO. You're not the only one to make the connection though, so maybe you can tell me what I'm missing? BTW thank you for being a Patriot Guard Rider.

 

[WAYNE]

[/quote]

I can absolutely see Elios being towed behind boomers RVs, it would be the perfect vehicle for that. I don't see the attraction of the Elio to motorcycle riders though as some kind of replacement. IMHO It has almost nothing in common with the motorcycle riding experience, which is why people ride, right? No wind, no leaning (riding!), no being out in the elements, no engine noise, etc. etc. You don't ride an Elio, you drive it. It's a car experience, not a bike experience IMHO. You're not the only one to make the connection though, so maybe you can tell me what I'm missing? BTW thank you for being a Patriot Guard Rider.

Cause were getting too old to hold the bike up. It's not fun to cook in the sun. it's too cold on old bones. Mama don't like to ride anymore.
PGR Thanks It's the right thing to do.

 

[lafrisbee]

LOL, I can see the ad now....
"Mama Don't like to Ride No More."