The Importance Of A Clear Direction

[cantwait]

I agree with the concept of doing one thing well. Once you have a working product, you still have to decide where to spend precious resources. Pontiac never figured it out with the Fiero, or did so too late. On the other hand, Ford took the Mustang successfully in several directions before losing their way. They successfully built an economy/secretary's car all the way up to serious hot-rods, and did so successfully for several years. VW's approach with the Beetle was very successful with essentially no model diversification for years.

There are lots of ways to succeed and fail in business, which is a great part of the appeal. Personally, I'd rather have seen Elio take an "enclosed motorcycle" approach, rather than the "sub-econo-car"/"enclosed scooter" approach that they are taking, but it's not my problem. For each of us, the final decision will rest upon whether they either build what we want or something close enough to what we want that we are willing to either live with it or fix it.

For Elio, the questions are funding, and whether they can sell enough of them at enough margin to stay in business.

I'm just guessing, but I think the market for "enclosed motorcycles" at $8-15K would hover around 50k units per year, repeatably. I would expect that the market for $8-10K ($7600MSRP) "enclosed scooters/sub-econo-cars" would cap at about 100k per year in the U.S.A.. To expand beyond that will require international sales, in my opinion.

Until a real product hits the market, we're all just speculating.

 

[Jeff Miller]

I agree with the concept of doing one thing well. Once you have a working product, you still have to decide where to spend precious resources. Pontiac never figured it out with the Fiero, or did so too late. On the other hand, Ford took the Mustang successfully in several directions before losing their way. They successfully built an economy/secretary's car all the way up to serious hot-rods, and did so successfully for several years. VW's approach with the Beetle was very successful with essentially no model diversification for years.

There are lots of ways to succeed and fail in business, which is a great part of the appeal. Personally, I'd rather have seen Elio take an "enclosed motorcycle" approach, rather than the "sub-econo-car"/"enclosed scooter" approach that they are taking, but it's not my problem. For each of us, the final decision will rest upon whether they either build what we want or something close enough to what we want that we are willing to either live with it or fix it.

For Elio, the questions are funding, and whether they can sell enough of them at enough margin to stay in business.

I'm just guessing, but I think the market for "enclosed motorcycles" at $8-15K would hover around 50k units per year, repeatably. I would expect that the market for $8-10K ($7600MSRP) "enclosed scooters/sub-econo-cars" would cap at about 100k per year in the U.S.A.. To expand beyond that will require international sales, in my opinion.

Until a real product hits the market, we're all just speculating.

It would be interesting to know exactly how many slingshots, can ams, etc. were sold last year and whether any one product was near your guess of 50k units.

As for the elio style vehicle, I believe EM thinks that the yearly cap for an elio is far in excess of 100k per year. Again, it will be interesting to see what the actual numbers are.

 

[Ty]

Elio DOES tout that whole 672 mile range as if you could actually pack for a cross country trip and just take off (I know some people could but most wouldn't even consider it). They could tout that at an average one-way commute distance of 14 miles, the Elio would only need to be fueled once every 24 work days, or less often than once per month! Or, the Tag line could be "Drive an Elio to work and back for less than a dollar! (in fuel)" OR "Drive an Elio to work and back for less than half a gallon of gas!"

 

[cantwait]

It would be interesting to know exactly how many slingshots, can ams, etc. were sold last year and whether any one product was near your guess of 50k units.

As for the elio style vehicle, I believe EM thinks that the yearly cap for an elio is far in excess of 100k per year. Again, it will be interesting to see what the actual numbers are.

I don't have the Slingshot numbers. I would guess that they probably sold about 10k or a bit less. The Slingshot is open and in the $20-25k range, so the demographics are a bit different. It is more of an "econo-sport-convertible" or a "stable touring motorcycle". A big touring bike costs about the same as a Slingshot, and they would compete with each other. For most motorcyclists, and enclosed trike would be a stable-mate to the bike, and would replace one of the cars.

In my mind, at least, the Elio would be an "and motorcycle", but an "or car". I would expect the Slingshot would be more of an "or motorcycle" or an "or convertible".

 

[cantwait]

Elio DOES tout that whole 672 mile range as if you could actually pack for a cross country trip and just take off (I know some people could but most wouldn't even consider it). They could tout that at an average one-way commute distance of 14 miles, the Elio would only need to be fueled once every 24 work days, or less often than once per month! Or, the Tag line could be "Drive an Elio to work and back for less than a dollar! (in fuel)" OR "Drive an Elio to work and back for less than half a gallon of gas!"

I like the tag line/advertising idea. Of course, the city mpg is only estimated to be 49mpg, so the figures would have to be adjusted.

 

[floydv]

Elio DOES tout that whole 672 mile range as if you could actually pack for a cross country trip and just take off (I know some people could but most wouldn't even consider it). They could tout that at an average one-way commute distance of 14 miles, the Elio would only need to be fueled once every 24 work days, or less often than once per month! Or, the Tag line could be "Drive an Elio to work and back for less than a dollar! (in fuel)" OR "Drive an Elio to work and back for less than half a gallon of gas!"

Or "Take the Elio on a long road trip, ship your luggage there, and you'll still save money!" (Maybe not)

 

[Ekh]

I do think I can take the Elio on a road trip because I can pack light and don't mind roughing it for a couple of weeks. Of course, if the coffee cup holder isn't there, fuggedaboudit! But if the car is too noisy or too uncomfortable .... well, only time will tell. Seriously, I feel that an Elio will allow me to start making a series of trip I just can't afford driving my Forester.

My main reason for wanting an Elio is that I'm a cheapskate. I simply cannot see continuing to burn up 3 times as much gas as I need to! 98% of my driving is solo, and when it's not, we take the wife's Camry hybrid. Most of my driving is bopping around within 50 miles of my home. It's about 50-50 city highway driving. Average trip is 20 to 55 miles, though some short "village runs" are 6 miles round trip (I try to avoid those).

I'm going to Detroit this week. The distance is about 270 miles one way, almost all highway. So my Elio could do it on one tank, easy. Round-trip Gas cost $14.00 (approximately). Subaru will cost $43.00 in gas for the same trip. The difference is a nice dinner in Detroit (if there is such a thing).

I've done the math, and need to do it again with gas so low. But with gas at $3.00 / gallon, an Elio will save me $2500/year compared to my paid-for '09 Forester, including insurance, maintenance, and purchase price of the Elio. Plus I'll have the fun of driving the thing, and the satisfaction of knowing I'm doing right by Planet Earth. Eric's perfect car!

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Remember, Fiero was a part of Pontiac. The Managers of the Fiero had to answer to layers of Hierarchy and through those layers, any idea, however idealistic, became distorted through committee.

The Elio is its own entity, and answers to no one but Paul Elio.

maybe the dash, he best not be making many of the complex issues associated to bring the E into production-

 

[RUCRAYZE]

My overall concern, is when, not if, -a "stock" Elio(s) have serious accident(s).( i.e. not sure how it affected sales, but a former President tripping over the Segway, did nothing to increase acceptance.)
The public is accepting of motorcycle crashes/deaths,
However, this "new" concept vehicle in a dramatic accident- read blood and gore, a fire with a kid trapped in the rear, will sadly have national negative news and dramatically affect sales, and value

 

[WilliamH]

I do think I can take the Elio on a road trip because I can pack light and don't mind roughing it for a couple of weeks. Of course, if the coffee cup holder isn't there, fuggedaboudit! But if the car is too noisy or too uncomfortable .... well, only time will tell. Seriously, I feel that an Elio will allow me to start making a series of trip I just can't afford driving my Forester.

My main reason for wanting an Elio is that I'm a cheapskate. I simply cannot see continuing to burn up 3 times as much gas as I need to! 98% of my driving is solo, and when it's not, we take the wife's Camry hybrid. Most of my driving is bopping around within 50 miles of my home. It's about 50-50 city highway driving. Average trip is 20 to 55 miles, though some short "village runs" are 6 miles round trip (I try to avoid those).

I'm going to Detroit this week. The distance is about 270 miles one way, almost all highway. So my Elio could do it on one tank, easy. Round-trip Gas cost $14.00 (approximately). Subaru will cost $43.00 in gas for the same trip. The difference is a nice dinner in Detroit (if there is such a thing).

I've done the math, and need to do it again with gas so low. But with gas at $3.00 / gallon, an Elio will save me $2500/year compared to my paid-for '09 Forester, including insurance, maintenance, and purchase price of the Elio. Plus I'll have the fun of driving the thing, and the satisfaction of knowing I'm doing right by Planet Earth. Eric's perfect car!

I'm not going to worry about insurance, but visited my niece in Gilbert, AZ over Christmas.
1800 miles round trip at 14.2 MPG. 2011 F150. 126.75 gallons, average speed 70MPH.
So if I had my Elio it would be about 30 gallons.
Gas averaged about $1.90/gal or about $241 for the trip in my truck.
It would have been about $57 in the Elio.
And I was thinking about that for the entire trip.