I disagree on several levels. On the surface, the only thing observable is that Elio Motors exists and continues, euphemistically, to move the ball down the field towards production. The end score is not known yet either for the home team or the rival. Until those are known, the outcome can not be determined. Unless you cheer for the Pats of course.
Actually I'm a Seahawks fan.
No, they are collecting money, running a roadshow, and working on legislation. They are not moving towards production. They have been 15-18 months away from production since they started taking reservations in January 2013. Before that, they were 15-18 months from production "once funding was obtained".
The football analogy breaks down because there is no rival team.
On the other hand, Elio's score is fairly clear: $65M raised and spent.
$20M owed on equipment.
$25M potential liability for reservations.
0 pre-production prototypes. 0 fully tested engines. 0 engines that have been seen by outside observers.
Legislation - laws changed in several states.
Plant - under lease. Past due on hiring deadline. Hiring deadline extended. Equipment sale $50K sold vs $70M+ claimed value.
Private securities offerings - no evidence that any money has been raised above the filing fees.
ATVM loan - 1st step done (ie they filled out the application) Nothing since. Time frame - 1-4 years. They will lose access to the plant before a positive determine could be announced.
The score is known. It's just not being accepted. The idea was good. The window of opportunity was there. They blew it.