At What Point

[nthawk68]

Paul Elio is an engineer. Those numbers are his design criteria(84MPG,6800$,5*), if he doesn't meet them he will not have been successful in his own mind. Also he has taken this "in hand" and is going to follow the plan and engineering/fincianial models used to get this far. An engineer does not willingly comply with the "bean counters" who will want to price it to "what the market will bear". Again ,he will follow the "program", which will definately include price increases as dictated by content and inflation. He has a profit margin in mind and pricing will be driven by that number. On MPG, weight,CD,engine design are the primary players. All a part of the design, 55HP in a sub 1500 pound car with good areo will do it. Now that isn't to say everyone will get thatMPG, depends on your conditions and how you drive it. I always get rated MPG or better and I do not do the hypermile thing, just smooth ,and aware driving. On the price, I can see that he may have to yield some to inflation over the development time. That being said I feel he will hold the base at 6800$ for the first year, options will "make it up". Mine will be a BASE car, that's what I want, simple and efficient. He will have met his personally established goals and the model ,I'm sure, allows for price corrections as production continues. That's my opinion, based on being an engineer with a major car company and the frustrations of dealing with "stupid wasteful C**P" every day!
Crash testing is a pointless undertaking to me, get hit by a full size pickup and your toast. That is the same for any small car. The requirements to make a 5* rating are known and can be incorporated into the design. I drive my full size truck as if it were a motorcycle and taught my kids the same way, do not depend on hardware to protect you. I'll drive the Elio like my K75 and be a happy camper regardless of the "gov safety rating", but I know he will achive it. I bet it already has in computer simulation, many times during the design evoloution. Sorry about the spelling ,as I said I'm an engineer and this doesn't have spell check appearently.

I agree and think the 6800 - 7200 is the price for the first year, and then the demand will grow and the price will increase to meet demand. Mileage, anything over 70 will be awesome, the 5 star rating is not that important to me. as a motorcycle rider, and helo door gunner, I believe that you will go when it is your time and you cant stop it no matter how safe you are. You only have one life to live, if you live it right, that should be good enough.

 

[imageon]

6801.00 - 7999.00, I'm good.
83 mpg - 70 mpg, I'm good.
Crash tests - 3.5 - 4.5, I'm good.
Buy by - December 2015 - March - 2016, I'm good.
MK

 

[AriLea]

China will be selling Elio knockoffs as soon as they can steal blueprints or get their mitts on one to reverse engineer.

They already have suitable hardware, engineers and technology. All they need is the proof to give the policy makers this will make them money. There is no proof better than having it inside your own territory and succeeding.
I'm thinking other types of vehicles and products will keep them distracted until well down the road, so long as it's kept off their shores for now.

 

[JEBar]

China will be selling Elio knockoffs as soon as they can steal blueprints or get their mitts on one to reverse engineer.

knockoff is a good way to put it and that's pretty much the limit to what one from China would ever be .... the heart of an Elio is its motor and whatever motor they would use is highly unlikely to measure up

Jim

 

[Craig]

They already have suitable hardware, engineers and technology. All they need is the proof to give the policy makers this will make them money. There is no proof better than having it inside your own territory and succeeding.
I'm thinking other types of vehicles and products will keep them distracted until well down the road, so long as it's kept off their shores for now.

Do you have more pictures of the car in your avatar?

 

[AriLea]

Do you have more pictures of the car in your avatar?

Oh, far, far, too many.

Are you able to go on facebook?
http://www.facebook.com/ArakLea?ref_type=bookmark

Click on photos, there are a few over crowded albums in there. Keep in mind this is only step-1 of tooling, a 'plug'.
I had under-documented some work in the 80's, and I tend to go overboard these days. My intention was to eventually show how to do lofting, the old fashioned way. Although I did start with a digital model.

And starting around page three on this thread.
http://www.elioowners.com/threads/altc-designs.1574/

And if that subject is interesting to you, this can also be fun...
http://www.elioowners.com/threads/morphic-studies.1773/

 

[tonyspumoni]

This sure has been a fun process to witness and one that, from a business case perspective, remains highly unusual. I see many comparisons to the early Apple here. A zealot engineer leader? Check. An unconventional business model? Check. A disruptive product that is evolutionary not revolutionary? Check.

What interests me most from the business side is how the capital structure works and what the odds are that if this is successful it becomes an acquisition target. So far it is all private or angel money (or if they get their USDE loan, a pre-bailout car company) so there is no threat, but the investors will want an exit and they'll want to make money doing so. With Paul's rigid retail price point of $6800 I have to think that they must have factored in a pretty good starting margin, e.g. they cannot lose money on each initial vehicle under the presumption that they can make that up later in volume and production efficiency gains. If they get the loan they'll be in the hole to the tune of what, $300M? Gotta sell a lot of cars at a net profit of $750 a pop to make that up.

I haven't seen anywhere, but can they/will they resort to the carbon credit trading scheme that has made Tesla so popular or, because this is a motorcycle and not a car, is that off the table as a business strategy. If Paul could figure out a way to sell CAFE and CARB credits to car manufacturers who are having trouble meeting the mandated requirements, he would be able to print money.

 

[JP]

Please don't draft to save fuel mileage. I drive SUVs and trucks and small cars draft me. It's very dangerous as you cannot stop soon enough and I can't see you back there if you're closer that 4 or 5 feet away. Either pass or back off

 

[tonyspumoni]

Yeah. Back in the day we used to drive to Utah from Wisconsin on spring break to ski. We carried CB radios and would draft on semi's from time to time. We didn't note great efficiency gains, though we did note that it is NOT safe and that the truckers did NOT like it. I cannot imagine that driving a vehicle as light as the Elio in the vortex of a semi would be a relaxing experience anyway. In fact, one of the major concerns I have is how the Elio will handle in crosswinds in general. I'll do a search and see what sort of sway setup is planned.

 

[goofyone]

This sure has been a fun process to witness and one that, from a business case perspective, remains highly unusual. I see many comparisons to the early Apple here. A zealot engineer leader? Check. An unconventional business model? Check. A disruptive product that is evolutionary not revolutionary? Check.

What interests me most from the business side is how the capital structure works and what the odds are that if this is successful it becomes an acquisition target. So far it is all private or angel money (or if they get their USDE loan, a pre-bailout car company) so there is no threat, but the investors will want an exit and they'll want to make money doing so. With Paul's rigid retail price point of $6800 I have to think that they must have factored in a pretty good starting margin, e.g. they cannot lose money on each initial vehicle under the presumption that they can make that up later in volume and production efficiency gains. If they get the loan they'll be in the hole to the tune of what, $300M? Gotta sell a lot of cars at a net profit of $750 a pop to make that up.

I haven't seen anywhere, but can they/will they resort to the carbon credit trading scheme that has made Tesla so popular or, because this is a motorcycle and not a car, is that off the table as a business strategy. If Paul could figure out a way to sell CAFE and CARB credits to car manufacturers who are having trouble meeting the mandated requirements, he would be able to print money.

$6800 is not a final price but instead a target and EM has openly stated that if they had to set the price right now it would be about $7300. The last we heard they are looking for $1K margin and the estimated cost of actually producing this vehicle is about $5.5K. The remainder of the money would account for liability, marketing, and retail operations.

EM has actually discussed the possibility of CAFE credits and they are supposed to be working on this angle as this could potentially provide for more profit per vehicle than the margin they already have in the base model. Use for forum search function to find more information on this as this information originally leaked out via meeting notes from the Caddo Parish Commission which is where the plant is located.