Less Than $7,600, No Sooner Than 4th Qtr 2016

[Bilbo B]

I think the Elio Vehicle is a great concept, but it certainly does not advance automobile technology, not a single engineering patents that I'm aware of.

The Tesla was a game changer, and holds hundreds of patents.

My point, comparing Tesla & Elio Motors is absurd on any level.

Elon Musk is a "World Class" entrepreneur with a proven track record.

Musk deserved the ATVM loan, he's a brilliant businessman, and was able to successfully execute his dream!

Elio certainly has the potential to be a game changer. A sub-$8,000 vehicle getting 50+ MPG combined running on regular fuel, while offering a relatively high level of passenger protection, certainly could change the game. Tesla is showing us the way towards one future, but we're not living in the future quite yet. The infrastructure isn't there yet to support electric vehicles. The price isn't there yet to reach the masses and really have an impact. Batteries have a limited life (how long does that 3 year old cell phone run on a charge these days?). I've not seen that addressed. The Eilo doesn't suffer from any of those. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing but respect for what Musk/Tesla has done, and the latest Consumers Reports score is the final proof they're doing a lot of things right. If someone dropped a Tesla in my driveway for me to drive, I'd be all over it. But I'll never spend $80,000 on one.

Whether the Elio is enough of a potential game changer to warrant ATVM support we'll eventually find out. I think it is. Whether EM's financials are to the governments liking is the big question, IMHO.

 

[Ekh]

I keep asking myself that if I did NOT have a vested interest in Elio, would I want my government investing my tax dollars in it? I haven't been able to come up with an answer. As noted by others, we really don't know what the DOE criteria is, what other recipients financial reports looked like when their applications were approved. I'm not as confident in Elio receiving the loan was I was a week ago. I'm really not confident in Elio getting to production without the loan. Unless there is a very generous Angel Investor out there.

Mr. B. here is why DOE should support Elio Motors' application -- regardless of the shaky financial underpinnings of the company.


Why DOE should support Elio Motors ATVM Loan Guarantee

In 2014, about 136.78 billion gallons (or 3.26 billion barrels) of gasoline were consumed in the United States, a daily average of about 374.74 million gallons (or 8.92 million barrels). (Source: Energy Information Adminstration)

Putting gas at $3.50 per gallon, in 2014 people spent $479 billion dollars on gasoline.

If you could reduce the consumption by 0.5%, you would save 685 million gallons of gas. That’s’ a lot of dinosaurs, pops. Even with gas at 2.50 a gallon, that’s $1.712 BILLION dollars Americans could spend on other things.

So, what’s a $184 million investment by DOE do to help make that happen? It’s roughly 1/9 of the money saved EVERY YEAR (after five years of full production) by the nationwide fleet of Elios.

The potential return isn’t measured in dollars alone. It’s reduced carbon footprint, reduced wear on the highways (lighter construction = less road wear), less methane emitted, etc. What the money saved does do is empower people to spend money more constructively. This echoes in economically and socially positive ways.

So what’s a one-time expenditure or $184 million compared to saving 1.7 billion dollars in any given year, even with cheap gas? Chicken feed. So if DOE thinks this issue through, they may (and should) give Elio Motors a chance to reach production. Good bet, good strategy.

 

[Rickb]

Mr. B. here is why DOE should support Elio Motors' application -- regardless of the shaky financial underpinnings of the company.


Why DOE should support Elio Motors ATVM Loan Guarantee

In 2014, about 136.78 billion gallons (or 3.26 billion barrels) of gasoline were consumed in the United States, a daily average of about 374.74 million gallons (or 8.92 million barrels). (Source: Energy Information Adminstration)

Putting gas at $3.50 per gallon, in 2014 people spent $479 billion dollars on gasoline.

If you could reduce the consumption by 0.5%, you would save 685 million gallons of gas. That’s’ a lot of dinosaurs, pops. Even with gas at 2.50 a gallon, that’s $1.712 BILLION dollars Americans could spend on other things.

So, what’s a $184 million investment by DOE to help make that happen? It’s roughly 1/9 of the money saved EVERY YEAR (after five years of full production) by the nationwide fleet of Elios.

The potential return isn’t measured in dollars alone. It’s reduced carbon footprint, reduced wear on the highways (lighter construction = less road wear), less methane emitted, etc. What the money saved does do is empower people to spend money more constructively. This echoes in economically and socially positive ways.

So what’s a one-time expenditure or $184 million compared to saving 1.7 billion dollars in any given year, even with cheap gas? Chicken feed. So if DOE thinks this issue through, they may (and should) give Elio Motors a chance to reach production. Good bet, good strategy.

The shaky financial underpinnings you mention may be ATVM loan deal breaker. There is no doubt that the Elio could be a game changer based on affordability and that gas sipping 84 mpg. The Fisker ATVM loan default doesn't help Elio's chances either. Risky bet, good strategy for EM, for Elio fans, & Reservationists.

Is there a guarantee that the Elio is manufactured even if the ATVM was approved? I don't see to many Fiskers traveling the Roadways.

 

[pistonboy]

Once Elio Motors receives the ATVM loan, its finances are no longer shaky.
They can go ahead and march into production.
Perhaps I see things too simply.

 

[Ekh]

The shaky financial underpinnings you mention may be ATVM loan deal breaker. There is no doubt that the Elio could be a game changer based on affordability and that gas sipping 84 mpg. The Fisker ATVM loan default doesn't help Elio's chances either. Risky bet, good strategy for EM, for Elio fans, & Reservationists.

Is there a guarantee that the Elio is manufactured even if the ATVM was approved? I don't see to many Fiskers traveling the Roadways.

The Fisker fiasco isn't really analogous. The Fisker was a high-priced sports car which was never intended for a mass market. Elio, on the other hand, really is aimed at a collection of market clusters, intended to be more than a niche car. Think VW bug vs Porsche 356 (same vintage, which is why I'm referencing these antiques). Fisker = Porsche, Elio = beetle in terms of potential market size and relative cost. DOE backed a Porsche in the Fisker affair. I don't know a great deal about the inner details of that failure, but surely it was off-target in terms of what DOE is supposed to be achieving, which is technology that significantly reduces the nation's oil consumption. Solenta was the other big failure DOE supported. That had to do with China producing the same of better products more cheaply, and Solenta couldn't stay competitive. Plus some mismanagement -- but again, I'm not an expert on that failure either.

Looking at Elio, the risk vs. gain equation is pretty favorable, from DOE's point of view. If they get the loan guarantee, they WILL enter production. It may take them longer to build their market than they're calculating, and that could cause a failure -- they acknowledge this in the SEC filing. But if they succeed, DOE looks wonderful, and really does do something that supports their mission. If EM gets the loan and doesn't succeed, DOE can always say "the odds were in favor of success, and the payout was at least 9 times greater than the money at risk. Seemed sound enough to us."

 

[pistonboy]

Some in government want to close the Department of Energy (DOE). The Elio has the potential to be the next Volkswagen, that is, supplying transportation to world masses of people. To make themselves look good, the DOE would love to claim having brought into existence a vehicle of the Elio's significance. Governmental regulations are so complex, those regulations can be used to rationalize anything they want to rationalize. Perhaps we should look at this from a viewpoint other than number analysis.

 

[Ekh]

At the risk of cross posting, there is news that affects EM's situation. It looks like RACER trust is not about to foreclose on EM due to the latest delay

A RACER Trust spokesman says they will likely grant Elio Motors another extension to the 4th quarter of 2016.

"RACER Trust maintains full faith and confidence in Elio Motors and its plan to produce its three-wheel vehicles in the former GM Assembly and Stamping Plant in Caddo Parish," said RACER Trust Vice President Bill Callen in a statement.

"CEO Paul Elio has kept RACER fully informed of his progress in securing capital, building a supply chain and other important business milestones. We recognize the challenges of launching a successful startup, particularly in the automotive sector, but we are satisfied with Mr. Elio’s business plan and his progress to date," Callen said.

 

[BADBOY]

I live in the Mohave desert of southern California. None of my cars have AC. I was counting on the Elio providing that next summer. I don't know if I will even have it for the summer of 2017.

I suggest getting a bigger vehicle and moving the heck out of the desert!

 

[BADBOY]

This statement has given me more insight than anything else. First few pages so negative ($45 million in loss with way more on way). yikes!!

It also answered my question about why nothing moving on the Gov't loan. EM has to prove they have financial backing to get the loan. I have seen post saying this but thought it was just sarcastic comments. Man was I incorrect. Most positive spin I can come up with is EM has to have sources to repay the loan; rather like when a person buys car on credit, there must be a job or assets indicating person can make the payments. EM does not have that..yet.

 

[Rickb]

The Fisker fiasco isn't really analogous. The Fisker was a high-priced sports car which was never intended for a mass market. Elio, on the other hand, really is aimed at a collection of market clusters, intended to be more than a niche car. Think VW bug vs Porsche 356 (same vintage, which is why I'm referencing these antiques). Fisker = Porsche, Elio = beetle in terms of potential market size and relative cost. DOE backed a Porsche in the Fisker affair. I don't know a great deal about the inner details of that failure, but surely it was off-target in terms of what DOE is supposed to be achieving, which is technology that significantly reduces the nation's oil consumption. Solenta was the other big failure DOE supported. That had to do with China producing the same of better products more cheaply, and Solenta couldn't stay competitive. Plus some mismanagement -- but again, I'm not an expert on that failure either.

Looking at Elio, the risk vs. gain equation is pretty favorable, from DOE's point of view. If they get the loan guarantee, they WILL enter production. It may take them longer to build their market than they're calculating, and that could cause a failure -- they acknowledge this in the SEC filing. But if they succeed, DOE looks wonderful, and really does do something that supports their mission. If EM gets the loan and doesn't succeed, DOE can always say "the odds were in favor of success, and the payout was at least 9 times greater than the money at risk. Seemed sound enough to us."

The only Fisker/Elio analogy is shaky finances as new startups with no product to sell, no employees, no sales revenue, and no guarantee of future sales needed to repay the loan after the loan approval. I'm ok with the DOE's track record on picking winners. I support the need for and importance of the Program and have no issues with the Fisker or Solyndra losses. I'm very happy to see Tesla's success because it may help to set the stage for more affordable EV's in the near future.

I would like to see a successful EM on the winner's side of the DOE's venture capital ledger, but feel they may not qualify based on the shaky financial underpinnings you mentioned. We can only hope.