Elio Motors A Billion Dollar Company

[JEBar]

So, does your post mean there was no upswing in reservations after the TV commercials? I had never heard but wondered what the results were.

Perhaps EM should give us additional T-shirts with our vehicles or even right now, so we can do some advertising for him. We are the enthusiast and might be the best advertising for EM.

I honestly don't expect any big upswing in reservations until after the E series tests bring the DOE loan in.

I don't know what's going on, I'm just looking at the numbers ....if you look back at the info in this thread, you will see that the most recent release of having 50687 as of Feb 29, 2016 equaled an average of 54.6/day .... for a long time, the vast majority of the weekly releases have shown average daily increases in the 20's .... it will be interesting to see how the numbers go from here

 

[RUCRAYZE]

XII:XXII, night all

 

[Marshall]

So Elio gets to keep the reservation money, from that point of view it's a win/win for Elio.

The price point is the primary reason for failure of startups and what distinguishes the Elio model from most eclectic startups.

I personally do not feel there is a true difference from guaranteed and non guaranteed reservations and most must agree since there are so few "guaranteed" reservations. You put money down based on faith at this point.

 

[bowers baldwin]

The price point is the primary reason for failure of startups and what distinguishes the Elio model from most eclectic startups.

I personally do not feel there is a true difference from guaranteed and non guaranteed reservations and most must agree since there are so few "guaranteed" reservations. You put money down based on faith at this point.

I was just playing devils advocate with Aprilia, he was saying the dropout rate was going to be high and therefore Elio would loose money.
Let's just play this out to the extreme, let's say 100% of reservations bail (die, loose interest, buy other cars etc.)
So now Elio has all that money (85% of it non refundable), so that's millions of dollars and they don't even have to make units for that money.
Now let's say they actually go on sale at the malls of America and people buy them up like hot cakes (excluding the 50,000 people who plunked down money), So they get $ for units not made and $ for units made, WIN/WIN.

 

[bunchathrees]

The only path I can see for a vehicle not getting produced is down an articulated IF-THEN-IF-THEN-IF. Say EM collapses under the financial burden. There are a lot of big players with skin in this venture. Would they sell for pennies on the dollar? Unlikely. They would more likely try to salvage their investment. The killer would be if they could not unify to drive the project forward.

In business, sometimes deep pockets come with big personalities. More often they come with ambition and savvy.

 

[AriLea]

It's kind of insane (very insane actually) to challenge the meaning of 50k reservations. No mater what happens with reservationists, it's a confidently representative number in the marketing industry, meaning plenty of people will step in should some portion of that fail to materialize. That's the nature of this type of segment of the full customer population. The nature of all in is that EM makes money if a customer exists.

I'm just confident that cynical talk will get worse as Elio Motors gets closer to 'making it'. After Elio does 'make it', the trolls will not go away, just move into areas they feel they can succeed at.

BTW, a customer base in this context would be people who buy for the 'base attributes' or primary target market of the product. Secondary attributes or alternative customers would be a market segment of the product marketed. In this sense, the base is also a segment of the total. You could also use market segment to indicate a part of a total population, or part of those who who buy any category of product, so the term segment and base are generalized terms, where one should mention what population you are using them in context with. To be explicit in statistics and numbers, you would always be sure to explicitly identify the population in scope and any useful subgroups.

Generally in marketing a product the customer is a targeted subgroup of the general public purchasing behavior. i.e any one person may buy more than one item. The base would then be the people motivated by primary product attributes or reasons, and a segment would be secondary reasons not related to the base motivators. So you have to keep in mind a person might buy a product for multiple reasons, but might also buy separate ones for each reason. (this is why the analysis is about purchase events over time and not as much about a head count )

So I can guarantee there will be someone that buys more than one Elio for more than one reason. Like me, I want three. Myself to commute, and one for a adult child who needs to commute, and one for a new teen driver. When the value-to-purpose is high compared to the price, these things happen more easily.

Here's a thought, in the future, how often do his and hers Mustangs get purchased vs his and hers Elios, given that two new Elios cost less than one used Mustang?

 

[Frim]

The Elio looks to me like a brilliant idea and I do not see how in the world it could not be a smashing success. However, just because it looks like that to me does not mean it looks as appealing to everyone else. I assume EM has had market surveys done by market research firms and is basing a good amount of their optimism on these surveys. I hope they have had new surveys done since the gas prices have dropped.

I am reminded of the Nano, a car made in India for under $2,000. (At least it was planned to be that price but only a few were sold at that price, which quickly went up but was still inexpensive.) It was expected to be a big success--but it was not. It did sell but not nearly in the big numbers expected. I wonder if its parent company (Tatra Motors?) did market surveys or just assumed it would succeed.

I wonder if the Elio is headed down the same path. What worries me is that there was no large upswing in reservations after the NY Auto Show nor the LA Auto Show. I am expecting nothing from this second visit to the NY Auto Show.

I will be watching.

Besides wanting my two vehicles which I will probably get because they are both all in for $1,000, I want EM to succeed because of national pride. The rest of the world’s attempt at inexpensive transportation is the Smart car. The Elio is USA’s attempt at inexpensive transportation--and look at what a fantastic design it is. I hope it succeeds simply because of national pride.

I will be watching this too.

Market

I believe that there is a large market of school commuters, both HS and Jr. College that we do not hear from. When Elios are available in real time for next semester, Dad will buy the most reliable cheap transportation for his student. (I believe there are thousands like me). That was my plan. She graduates HS in May. I would be much happier if she was driving a 7k Elio than the 5 year old, 20k Mustang she is currently driving on the 25 mile commute to Jr. College. In three years, I will have to make the decision again, 2nd graduate. I want to see an Elio on my driveway. Even if I drive it.

 

[Rickb]

I could be right...I could be wrong...flip a coin!

I just can not get my head around the need to produce 250K annual units...I'm not sure I see that kind of demand...

Over production has always been an "Achilles' heel for the automobile industry...

I've been an entrepreneur my whole life...and I stumbled hard several times...the problems occurred when I expanded too fast...finally I learned to control the rate of growth...and my business prospered beyond my wildest dreams...

My grandmother always said "Never get to big for your britches"!

No one will agree with me...but I actually believe that less than half of the 50K reservation holders will ever compete the purchase of an Elio vehicle...

I agree that some reservationists won't complete their initial reservation purchase, but will likely be second production run Elio customers. I have been following the Elio for 8 years, have a $100 refundable reservation, and no risk. I could walk away anytime, but hang around because I have serious interest in the Elio concept. A certain % of refundable reservationists may already have lost interest due to production delays or will lose interest if production doesn't start soon. My gut feeling is that the max. 250,000 units after production begins is likely when people see the Elio on the roadways.

Your personal start small and scale business philosophy is one that's shared in Arcimoto's business model. It seems like a financially sound startup business logic.

Our grandmothers........pretty much the same...........wise women!

 

[Kuda]

So they get $ for units not made and $ for units made, WIN/WIN.

$16,658,000 all in @1k current.
27,000 x 283 (850/3)= $7,641,000
$16,658,000+$7,641,000=
$24,299,000. This is an approximation of the real money
the current reservation 85% all in's
have provided....doesn't reflect
stock offerings or previous equity
investment....all this on one man's
Dream.... pretty cool......

 

[bowers baldwin]

$16,658,000 all in @1k current.
27,000 x 283 (850/3)= $7,641,000
$16,658,000+$7,641,000=
$24,299,000. This is an approximation of the real money
the current reservation 85% all in's
have provided....doesn't reflect
stock offerings or previous equity
investment....all this on one man's
Dream.... pretty cool......