7/31/2014 - Fastcoexist - People Flock To Put Deposits Down For A Three-wheeled, $6,800 Vehicle

[AriLea]

I'm sure it's less than 24,156. See my signature...

I'm in one of the latest batches, before 25,000 was reached.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Some interesting numbers from this latest article that I had not seen before, all to be taken "with a grain of salt", i.e. no way to know if these are facts or errors:

• about 86% of the deposits are all-in
• the gas credit card has a limit of $300 per month
• EM has changed laws in about 12 states for helmets and mc license

 

[karl]

As I am Happy with my all in for $100. Look forward to driving mine.

 

[AriLea]

Some interesting numbers from this latest article that I had not seen before, all to be taken "with a grain of salt", i.e. no way to know if these are facts or errors:

• about 86% of the deposits are all-in
• the gas credit card has a limit of $300 per month
• EM has changed laws in about 12 states for helmets and mc license

BY 86% I assume that's comparing to the refundable program, not referring to the amounts. I wonder, of course, what percent of a years production is in, but I think that the actual production level will be based on the eventual count of reservations at the time they are required to 'harden' their production planning.

 

[Jeff Porter]

BY 86% I assume that's comparing to the refundable program, not referring to the amounts. I wonder, of course, what percent of a years production is in, but I think that the actual production level will be based on the eventual count of reservations at the time they are required to 'harden' their production planning.

I hear ya AriLea... we can all make guesses and read from folks that have worked on assembly lines before, as to what a first year's production count will be. I've seen a 40k number suggested, but Elio isn't mentioning specifics anymore.

But yes, the 86% means out of let's say 26,000 reservations, 86% of them are all-in. 26k * .86 = 22,360.

It's sort of a "chicken or the egg" thing on which comes first: do they have a date where they say if we don't have more than a certain number of reservations, we'll just moved forward with plans for the current number... or are they saying we won't start to plan for production until we get to a certain number? I think those that have worked in this industry, would say that you have to sort of work to a plan and a date, and when that date arrives, if you have 30k or 60k, you move forward. Good news for reservation holders today: at current rates, 40,000 will be reached by January.

A thousand little details, timing has to be followed, people have to be hired, the lease on the plant may need to be renewed, etc.

 

[karl]

Just like the correlation with fuel prices, the number of "units" they can sell and reservations I believe are fairly low correlation factor. Someone willing to buy something sight unseen is fairly low. Most of us need to see feel and touch something before writing a check. Needing a motorcycle endorsement is the biggest "No thanks" factor in my personal view. Helmet requirement is number two. Small is not safe #3. Never seen anything like that coming in at #4. You could go on forever with this but the bottom line for me is I want one and will do what it takes to get it parked in my driveway.

 

[Music Man]

The numbers I remember is about 25 percent.

Like to think that you are correct, fpelsdca; 25% of the 25,000 are in for $1000 dollars.

Do the math. If that is correct: we are talking about 6250 folks in for $1000, and that equals $6,250,000 dollars that Elio Motors has taken in from us.

I think they are doing quite well for themselves!!!

PLEASE show us the NEW NUMBERS.

 

[Ty]

I hear ya AriLea... we can all make guesses and read from folks that have worked on assembly lines before, as to what a first year's production count will be. I've seen a 40k number suggested, but Elio isn't mentioning specifics anymore.

But yes, the 86% means out of let's say 26,000 reservations, 86% of them are all-in. 26k * .86 = 22,360.

It's sort of a "chicken or the egg" thing on which comes first: do they have a date where they say if we don't have more than a certain number of reservations, we'll just moved forward with plans for the current number... or are they saying we won't start to plan for production until we get to a certain number? I think those that have worked in this industry, would say that you have to sort of work to a plan and a date, and when that date arrives, if you have 30k or 60k, you move forward. Good news for reservation holders today: at current rates, 40,000 will be reached by January.

A thousand little details, timing has to be followed, people have to be hired, the lease on the plant may need to be renewed, etc.

While you are correct that at current rates, 40,000 will be reached by January, it would also be correct to say that at the rate of reservations this year (which is trending slowly upwards), they will reach 40,000 reservations 151.36 days after July 21, 2014... or December 19th... LOL - I just did the math here and thought it would be in November but that is not the case... So, I desist. You are pretty darned close with your assessment. As for the production amount per year? Well, that's totally up to Elio to decide when to call it... I know (firsthand, of course) that the GM line in Shreveport was capable of popping vehicles off the line faster than one per minute... Which is more than 480 per day. But, again, it'll take a bit for the line to get to full speed (or at least the logistics)... Plus, the slowest process will determin line speed... Can they only produce 100 motors a day? There you go.

 

[Jeff Porter]

While you are correct that at current rates, 40,000 will be reached by January, it would also be correct to say that at the rate of reservations this year (which is trending slowly upwards), they will reach 40,000 reservations 151.36 days after July 21, 2014... or December 19th... LOL - I just did the math here and thought it would be in November but that is not the case... So, I desist. You are pretty darned close with your assessment. As for the production amount per year? Well, that's totally up to Elio to decide when to call it... I know (firsthand, of course) that the GM line in Shreveport was capable of popping vehicles off the line faster than one per minute... Which is more than 480 per day. But, again, it'll take a bit for the line to get to full speed (or at least the logistics)... Plus, the slowest process will determin line speed... Can they only produce 100 motors a day? There you go.

Excellent info Ty, thanks!

 

[Music Man]

Just like the correlation with fuel prices, the number of "units" they can sell and reservations I believe are fairly low correlation factor. Someone willing to buy something sight unseen is fairly low. Most of us need to see feel and touch something before writing a check. Needing a motorcycle endorsement is the biggest "No thanks" factor in my personal view. Helmet requirement is number two. Small is not safe #3. Never seen anything like that coming in at #4. You could go on forever with this but the bottom line for me is I want one and will do what it takes to get it parked in my driveway.

DITTO to that, karl! Already pushed one of my other vehicles out into the rain & weather. My new Elio already has a nice, warm, place to roost.