We will turn to our friend C.T. when the unaskable needs to be asked!
It's a good question, one that I hesitate to state guesses and thoughts. Will like to hear what GoofyOne knows and thinks.
Ok, moment of hesitation has passed. LOL! Here's what I believe based on what I've read: it's a 90% chance the answer is no, we are not done if EM doesn't get the loan.
It's not my hope, it is my belief, that EM has what they need to produce the vehicles that have been reserved so far. Does EM need more money to go beyond producing say 40,000 vehicles (calm down everyone, just pulling a number out), setting up the marshalling stations and 60 stores, and umpteen things I don't even know about? I think so.
Has EM released any information about potential funds coming to them in the form of investments, loans, grants? No. Paul Elio has said he's confident, but what else would he say? He's said he's turned down big-time investments because the providers want to change Paul's plans.
I can speculate plenty based on what I have read but I really don't have much direct information on the current standing of the money side of the business as very few people at EM need to know these details and from my understanding a lot of it is locked behind confidentiality agreements.
What we do know is that EM is not putting all their eggs in one basket. They are working on several avenues of funding at once so while being denied the loan would not be a good thing it would definitely be far from the end of EM.
The biggest potential money maker we have not heard anything about, since it slipped out in some Caddo Parish commission meeting minutes, is changing federal rules to allow autocycles to be counted towards CAFE standards. Getting this change pushed through would allow EM to sell CAFE credits for quite a good deal of money. The reality is these credits would actually be more profitable than the actual base model Elio itself so if/when EM can get this changed I could definitely see them selling the base model Elio for $6800 even if it meant selling it at the break even point as EM would then make their money on the CAFE credits and options. This lower price would encourage more sales as the more vehicles EM sells under this scheme the more CAFE credits they have to sell to other auto manufacturers. Another advantage to this legal change would be that at least one or two major automakers would benefit from EM's existence and it always helps to have some big allies with deep pockets and a lot of government influence.
We also don't have any idea how much money EM has raised in the latest round of funding or how much they will make from selling off the excess equipment however these could be some considerable sums which would not only fund the completion of the vehicle development program but also make a nice dent in the $125 million or so it is supposed to take to get that plant operational.
I believe many of EM's current and potential investors are also waiting to see what happens with all these developments before they decide what their next investment steps should be. It is likely that we will have to hear news on the loan and/or the CAFE credits before we find out what else may be happening on the private investment side of things.
The best news is that as EM continues to make progress, both on the Shreveport plant and in the vehicle development program, this should encourage even more reservations to be made which should help encourage the government to give the loan and/or private investors that this really could be a profitable venture.
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