Anyone Else Think It Wont Happen?

[Hog]

As long as they can keep the interest up, the people who sign up will increase exponentially. Any publicity is good publicity at this point. I wear the shirt, share the posts, and in general, am an unpaid ambassador for the concept. But its the concept I buy into, not necessarily this particular car. This one may make it, maybe it won't, but the idea will live on, and sooner or later, someone will pull it off.

 

[rracer]

It'll be Elio.

 

[rracer]

The time has come.

 

[Carolyn]

I can't imagine all the hoops to jump through a brand new company has to do before it achieves it's goal. As Buckeyejake said, "keep the faith!" And as someone else said, no-one should invest money (in the unrefundable category) that he or she can't afford to lose. We were willing to show good faith by making a reservation, and we will be patient. The idea of Elio is excellent, some serious work and finances have gone into the startup, and I do believe it will happen all in good time.

 

[Elio Amazed]

This is a piece of history in the making.

"We may lose,
We may win,
But we will never be here again,
So open up, I'm climbin' in,
And take it easy."

"If you build it, they will come."

"Stay the course."

 

[eddie66]

The universal language is mathmatics. That's why I love doing the math.
According to the EM site, they are now averaging almost 1000 new deposits EACH WEEK.
As of 06-29-14, they report having 23,000+ deposits.
We have 60 weeks till Sept. 2015 (the current projected manufacturing launch).

IF the average number of new deposits per week stays the same...
(I believe that number will only increase as future progress on the Elio is made public)
...it means that EM will have around 83,000 deposits by Sept. 2015.

I personally think that that weekly number will skyrocket not too far in the future.
The people who are signing up for this vehicle are not stupid.
Maybe a bit special, farsighted and imaginative, but definitely not stupid.
I can imagine that almost every one of them did online research before they pulled the trigger.
If this many people are now popping with all the debate and naysaying that's currently easily found on the web...
Well, I'm sure you see my point.

I'm not saying that all of the current depos are "All in"s @ $1000, but I'm thinking a substantial number are.
I'm also thinking that the closer the production date gets, the more folks will upgrade thier depo.
Barring a EM legal, financial or PR catastrophe, I think we might see 100,000+ $1000 depos by Sept. '15
I've seen numerous mentions of EM needing an additional 145 M to start actually pumping
the finished product out the exit ramp of the future factory.
What's 100,000 X $1000? Could that be 100 M of the 145 M?
Even if EM only breaks even on the first year's production in order to make it happen,
they should end up with a very sweet second year all around.

If those depo numbers stay @ approximately 1000/wk or more, I wouldn't worry much.
Thoughts?

The problem with your math is, Elio has already stated that they will cut off reservations when they reach first year production numbers. Around 40,000 is what I believe I read. I think someone was told by an Elio staff member at one of the showings, that before they cut off reservations, everyone will be given an opportunity to upgrade to the "all in" category

 

[Elio Amazed]

Not saying it wasn't thrown out there at some point, but I read the same information about cutting off reservations
without any mention of what that approximate figure would be.

EM also said that they should be able to initially produce 250 to 500 units per day when production begins.

5 Days a week (@ $6800, I don't think they'll be able to pay time & a half for overtime) = 260 production days a year
260 production days a year x 250 units (the most conservative units/day projection) = 65,000 units

I would have to say that 40,000 units would be a good conservative goal for them to meet in the first year.
Being that conservative may be a good indicator of the character of this company,
But I doubt if they will purposely throttle back to 40,000 if they can comfortably run (and sell) @ 75,000+
.
Think about it. You'd be paying a work force and the constant costs of the property to NOT run at your comfortable and safe maximum?

Again, I have no doubt that they can sell @ 75,000+ per year.
And Again, a possible reason for restricting the first "Years" run to 40,000 could also be a safety catch
to facilitate a (already projected as necessary) price increase for the second year's production.
If that's a factor, the first "year" run may be paced at capacity but be quite shy of a full year.

 

[eddie66]

Not saying it wasn't thrown out there at some point, but I read the same information about cutting off reservations
without any mention of what that approximate figure would be.

EM also said that they should be able to initially produce 250 to 500 units per day when production begins.

5 Days a week (@ $6800, I don't think they'll be able to pay time & a half for overtime) = 260 production days a year
260 production days a year x 250 units (the most conservative units/day projection) = 65,000 units

I would have to say that 40,000 units would be a good conservative goal for them to meet in the first year.
Being that conservative may be a good indicator of the character of this company,
But I doubt if they will purposely throttle back to 40,000 if they can comfortably run (and sell) @ 75,000+
.
Think about it. You'd be paying a work force and the constant costs of the property to NOT run at your comfortable and safe maximum?

Again, I have no doubt that they can sell @ 75,000+ per year.
And Again, a possible reason for restricting the first "Years" run to 40,000 could also be a safety catch
to facilitate a (already projected as necessary) price increase for the second year's production.
If that's a factor, the first "year" run may be quite shy of a full year.

You have to remember for all us $1000 all in reservations, Elio is matching that by 50%. If the demand for the vehicle is that great, why would they continue to give away $500 per vehicle when they don't have to? At some point the party would have to be over.

 

[Danno]

Paul said in an interview, the plant would run one shift for 9 days to get going, 500 cars per day...on the 10th day increase to two shifts, 1000 a day. So the math in Elio Amazed's post doesn't make sense. They only said they would stop taking orders and confirm at 40,000, that's not JUST the first years production.

 

[eddie66]

Paul said in an interview, the plant would run one shift for 9 days to get going, 500 cars per day...on the 10th day increase to two shifts, 1000 a day. So the math in Elio Amazed's post doesn't make sense. They only said they would stop taking orders and confirm at 40,000, that's not JUST the first years production.

I like your numbers even better. That means I will get mine around the 9th day.