Atvm News - 2018 Fed Budget Proposal

[RSchneider]

Paul Elio told everyone that he had extensive plans on private funding and beginning production in June 2014. We all know how well that turned out. So, I assume that that the plans for service and distribution are to be believed also? Honestly, what can you believe? Back on topic, can Elio afford to all of this distribution and service. It doesn't come free. That's an ongoing expenditure and quite expensive upon startup. I could start my own car company right now if I had the proper funding. I think this is becoming a great textbook example of a middle aged mechanical engineer who worked for a supplier and had a dream.

Problem is, he has the dream like many do but realize that it's like deciding at 50 you are going to become the starting quarterback for the Patriots. It's not impossible but the odds are stacked against you. There's no Hollywood script writers to make for a good ending. The automotive industry is a mature industry. There's a certain way that things get done and what customers expect. Paul didn't have the personal funding like Musk had. He didn't have a new industry like Steve Jobs was able to carve out of nothing. Paul had to have known back around 2010 what it was going to cost to do all of this. Here we are 7 years later and wondering, if he just had the proper funding, everything would be fine. You have to ask your self, "Why were we not informed about this back in January 2013 when we started paying for reservations?" The industry didn't change. There was not massive change in the laws or policy that resulted in massive change in funding.

 

[Rob Croson]

Elio Amazed said nothing about paying of their debts. You mention that they over estimated bonuses and discounts lock ins etc. How do you know this?

Sorry, perhaps I wasn't as clear as I should have been. My comments were related to my original post, and the post it responded to, not to amazed's post. (And perhaps conflating in responses to others, as well. I was in a hurry...) Those numbers in my post were my own guesses, as Elio has not released any such numbers or estimates. (Nor would I expect them to do so.) I was trying to state that my estimates are pessimistic against Elio. I intentionally tried to estimate on the low side of possible revenue.

 

[Marshall]

You are counting $425 million income but are not counting expenses. They will likely lose money from each All IN ,due to the fact that they spent all the deposit and still owe the bonus. If they can make $500 on each car they sell it would be amazing. Of the $425 million sales they would be lucky to break even.

I think I remember them saying they are trying to get their unit cost down to about $5300 so let's say at full production, they actually get it t $5450 and make $2K/unit excluding options. While the initial vehicles will certainly not permit a profit due to ramp up costs, prepayments and discounts, they will likely move into profitability before the reservations are filled. At that point, there should be about 100 vehicles/day @ $2K/unit of profit for a daily profit stream of about $200,000/day or $73,000,000 per year.

That would take about 5 years to pay back start-up costs (~$370M). This is within traditional parameters for capital intensive projects, even at a 10 year payback. I don't think the financial side is a problem if the market demand is there to sustain 100 vehicle a day or more.

 

[Rob Croson]

The warranty thing is easy. Take it to any mechanic, and have them fix it. The Magnuson Moss act says you have that right, and the seller has to pay for it. You are not required to have the manufacturer do it, not are they allowed to require it.

 

[Marshall]

The warranty thing is easy. Take it to any mechanic, and have them fix it. The Magnuson Moss act says you have that right, and the seller has to pay for it. You are not required to have the manufacturer do it, not are they allowed to require it.

Ah! But does that apply to Autocycles or just cars?

 

[Kuda]

I think I remember them saying they are trying to get their unit cost down to about $5300 so let's say at full production, they actually get it t $5450 and make $2K/unit excluding options. While the initial vehicles will certainly not permit a profit due to ramp up costs, prepayments and discounts, they will likely move into profitability before the reservations are filled. At that point, there should be about 100 vehicles/day @ $2K/unit of profit for a daily profit stream of about $200,000/day or $73,000,000 per year.

That would take about 5 years to pay back start-up costs (~$370M). This is within traditional parameters for capital intensive projects, even at a 10 year payback. I don't think the financial side is a problem if the market demand is there to sustain 100 vehicle a day or more.

65,000 brightly colored billboards in the HOV lanes of the good 'ol USA will create a sizable demand in the short term. If the quality control is good they should make it to production year
# two & take a serious look at exporting in year # 3. Then it's anybody's guess............not to mention EV & Autonomous.

 

[Ekh]

Really tired of the old cloak and dagger "alluding to things known that can't be talked about because of the the SEC" thing.
Either say it or not. One man's "restrained" tease could easily be construed as another man's non-disclosure violation.
It's gone on for a very long time. Others have sung the same song as well.. And always with the same results.

It's getting to feel more like manipulation from the top and a bad urban legend than anything else.
Or maybe a little like the X-files. I feel like I should be asking Mulder for a link.

But what would be the point. Just sayin'.

Really tired of the old cloak and dagger "alluding to things known that can't be talked about because of the the SEC" thing.
Either say it or not. One man's "restrained" tease could easily be construed as another man's non-disclosure violation.
It's gone on for a very long time. Others have sung the same song as well.. And always with the same results.

It's getting to feel more like manipulation from the top and a bad urban legend than anything else.
Or maybe a little like the X-files. I feel like I should be asking Mulder for a link.

But what would be the point. Just sayin'.

For what it's worth, I don't like it either. But I won't burn relationships for your convience. My track record here is of great accuracy. Sorry that's not good enough for you.

 

[KenK]

So is anyone considering how much money Elio will make beyond just what they take in from the sale of the cars? Like how much the company stock will be worth if it triples/quadruples because they are finally in production? That seems like it could be a huge source of capital.

 

[Karg]

Since it seems like the DOE has no interest in supporting Elio. Therefore, if I were Paul, I'd move everything down to Mexico, cheaper labor, reduced costs, government support, and still North American content. As along I get mine in the driveway, it could be made on URANUS, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[booboo]

Since it seems like the DOE has no interest in supporting Elio. Therefore, if I were Paul, I'd move everything down to Mexico, cheaper labor, reduced costs, government support, and still North American content. As along I get mine in the driveway, it could be made on URANUS, as far as I'm concerned.

Not to mention many other countries like Mexico actually have better trade policies for their exports than us.

I also think all vehicles should have at least one Swiss movement.