Hey Goofyone, it's been a while since I last checked in and I would say you're doing a good job keeping this site civil.
First of, I've been all in for 1K so I'm with everybody who wants this Elio at the promised $6800.00 Now having said that, do you honestly believe in your heart that it's possible? Here's some lingering questions that I've heard from my buddies who does not think so and most likely will cause more delays in production from 2015 to a much later year. Here's what they're saying:
1) Paul Elio has been saying all along that this reverse trike has "no new technology" with parts readily available right now. So why is it taking this long to get this to production? If the funding is abundant and readily available, it won't take 12-24 months to bring this out! The current P4 design is fine...a little more additional feature to bring it to P5 shouldn't take that long!
2) Elio Motors need to find, buy or lease the 60+ locations all over the country and get them set up even before the first Elio rolls down the assembly line....again money is involved in this huge undertaking! Nothing has been mentioned about this let alone some activities or acquisitions of possible sites.
3) The 1500 employees that needs to be hired and get paid, again money is at the top of the list on this!
I know how much this Elio means to a lot of us and our attraction to this $6800. price is what drove us to commit "all in" but bringing this to fruition AT A LOSS will not play well with investors which brings this back to my original question....do you honestly believe it will happen or are we all be disappointed with yet another delay or worse yet....being slapped with totally different price? Time is never in anyone's side and the longer they wait, the more expensive "this available parts" and salaries will be! Of course, we all say, better do it right the first time than getting a lemon by receiving it early, but the fact remains that there's nothing new to test except the new engine and the reverse trike design! Everything else are proven parts that's been in use reliably in other cars, right? So, is it really the testing that's taking too long or is it something much more serious like funding or the promised $6800. price? I'm currently in for 2 Elios and would gladly pay for that price + the necessary taxes, etc.
Thanks and welcome back jetpack! Glad you could to join us and participate in this conversation.
I do honestly believe it is still possible for EM to produce these vehicles for first year reservation holders and keep the base price at $6800 while generating a profit. I also agree with you that as time moves forward and if/as EM suffers more delays then the likelihood of being able to provide this price to first year reservation holders decreases. You may have noticed I confined my previous statements to 'first year reservation holders' as at this point I do not believe the chances are very good of anyone beyond the first year reservation holders receiving the $6800 price.
As for your other points:
1. The fact of that matter is that current P4 design may look nice but it is nothing more than a very nice looking but rough mule with virtually none of the final parts, including the engine, which will actually make up the production vehicle. The P5 and subsequent E series are very important steps as while there is not a lot of new technology in there this is still an all new vehicle which must be thoroughly developed and tested before production.
In my opinion the current timeline of less than 12 months from P5 being built to production is not a long time at all but actually very short with not a lot of wiggle room. The P5 should lock down the major pieces such as final chassis and body design but then you move into the E series where testing has to determine which combination of parts will actually be best in terms of safety, comfort, reliability, and price via extensive laboratory and real world testing. Prior to production EM must also program and test all the on board computer controlled systems for this vehicle such as engine and transmission management, ABS braking, stability control system, supplemental restraint system sensors, and who knows what else. This is why they need to build 25 or so test vehicles as there is actually a lot of work in testing and development left to be done even after the chassis and body/aerodynamics are locked down and regardless of whether most of the parts are available 'off the shelf'.
2. It is my understanding that the retail stores and decentralized distribution/finishing centers will not open in the first year.
This information also matches up well with the 40K to 60K number we keep hearing as estimates for the number of vehicles to be produced in the first year as it is my opinion that the finishing/distribution center that is part of the Shreveport plant complex is the limiting factor in how many vehicles EM can deliver in the first year to reservation holders. While the plant is being designed to be able to produce 250K base vehicles per year it would stand to reason that the Shreveport finishing center, where base vehicles are finished with options and prepped for delivery, would only be designed to handle a fraction of that 250K as the rest of the base vehicles produced in subsequent years will be completed by the other finishing/distribution centers spread throughout the country.
This information also leads to my belief the reservations most of us here have on the vehicles also play a much bigger role than many have realized. In my opinion not only do the reservations prove there is interest to potential investors and ensure the production line will stay online for at least the first year but more importantly all these vehicles are being sold without all the extra overhead of running an entire network of distribution and sales centers which actually gives EM the extra profit margin they need to help pay to set up the sales and distribution system and an extra year of time to do so.
3. First I just need to clarify that the number of workers in Shreveport is 800 workers to begin with and up to 1500 as production levels ramp up over time. The question about how you pay for all these workers, and build out the plant itself, is really about financing and to me this is indeed the biggest question mark. My opinion is that we have not had great transparency from EM on how fundraising is going. I am guessing this is due to a combination of private investors reluctance to make their investments public and EM not really wanting potential reservation holders to become too focused on funding issues while EM is trying to market this vehicle to them. EM has said they have the funding lined up to finish vehicle development but I acknowledge that as these are private investments in a private company there is no requirement for public reporting of the information so we really do not have any way of independently verifying any investments in EM.
So in summary based on the information I have today I do believe that the $6800 price is still a realistic possibility for first year reservation holders but not likely for anyone else. In my opinion there is a lot of vehicle development and testing to be done however I feel everything can be realistically completed prior to expected production in the third quarter of next year. I am realistic and fully acknowledge that any delays in funding and/or the development timeline could easily affect either or both the production date and the final vehicle price.