Elio Tv Commercial - 60 Second Tv Spots (link)

[Rob Croson]

You mention the SRK. I have no idea if the SRK will make it to production or how many units will be pre-ordered over the next year if or when they do. Now that Arcimoto has finally started marketing the SRK reservation numbers could exceed the Elio's. Different business models and my hope is they both sell the maximum number of units they need to succeed. What they both need is a finished product to sell.

I think someone mentioned that Arcimoto plans to build 5K units the first year, then use that as seed money to ramp up following years. It's a valid plan if they can sell the 5k models. I have no reason to suspect they won't, it seems like a good product for strictly urban commutes. Not quite for me, as even when I lived a 15 minute drive from work, it was 10 minutes of 70 MPH highway drive, and 5 minutes of driving to/from the highway. These days it's 50+ minutes almost all freeway at 65-70 mph.

What would be cool is if EM gets their 25 E's and Arcimoto gets their 50 Beta's out at the same time since they both started about the same time back in 2007-08.

Two different paths from the same starting line.

The more of these kinds of vehicles that make it to the streets, the more mainstream they will become, and the greater chance that we have of seeing even more variety and choice. These smaller vehicles are definitely a great starting point for reducing our rapacious energy consumption.

 

[Rob Croson]

Therefore, I still think this 'public awareness' program is more about the 'leadership decision makers' than it is about reservations and backlog. Even though extra reservations now does help with public awareness. How much does 50k vs 75k reservations make in the minds of investors and government? At least a little. 100k plus? Even more.

25k reservations, at a $450 average reservation amount is $11.25M! (I think I heard someone quote $450 as the average.) That's nothing to sneeze at, if for no other reason than it provides extra working capital to keep the company going until the big funding arrives. Wouldn't you agree that investing $1M in TV ads that provides an $11.25M in reservations is a worthwhile investment?

Not to mention that another 25k reservations is another $170M in orders! That would bring the total received orders to $510M! If someone came to you and said "I need $300M to build this thing, and here is the list of people that have already put money down to buy it, and the total receipt from those sales alone is, at a minimum, $510M", what would you think of that investment? (Of course we need to discount that $510M by the $33M already received, plus whatever the average bonus amount is. As much as another $16M.) And don't forget to add the estimated extra money from options. If you assume a meager average $500 per vehicle for options, that's another $37.5M. (Those numbers are assuming a 75k reservation count you posited.) If half the people buy it as an automatic, you've already met that, or close enough. I bet upgraded stereos will be popular, too, if the stock doesn't come with things like bluetooth and/or USB/SD card.

If the advertising program boosts reservations, then it shows continued interest from a wider market, and that the current reservation holders aren't just a fluke, or the sum total of the market. At some point, someone just has to stand up and say "Shut up and take my money! Build it!"

 

[Coss]

If you go over to the thread that has the counts on reservations; the average has been around 28 or 29 a day.
Ever since the commercials came out there has been a jump to 50 per day.
Could be coincidental but who's to say.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Were we not expecting a jump after recent car shows- NY comes to mind. There we had automotive folks who paid to get in, and I think it had little or minimum uptick in reservations. I've been to two "showings" Jacksonville, (in a dying mall),and the Barrett Jackson in Palm Beach, the lines were shorter than my H.S. cafeteria. Which for me and other reservationists, was great time to talk to Jerome, and inspect the machine.

 

[Rickb]

25k reservations, at a $450 average reservation amount is $11.25M! (I think I heard someone quote $450 as the average.) That's nothing to sneeze at, if for no other reason than it provides extra working capital to keep the company going until the big funding arrives. Wouldn't you agree that investing $1M in TV ads that provides an $11.25M in reservations is a worthwhile investment?

Not to mention that another 25k reservations is another $170M in orders! That would bring the total received orders to $510M! If someone came to you and said "I need $300M to build this thing, and here is the list of people that have already put money down to buy it, and the total receipt from those sales alone is, at a minimum, $510M", what would you think of that investment? (Of course we need to discount that $510M by the $33M already received, plus whatever the average bonus amount is. As much as another $16M.) And don't forget to add the estimated extra money from options. If you assume a meager average $500 per vehicle for options, that's another $37.5M. (Those numbers are assuming a 75k reservation count you posited.) If half the people buy it as an automatic, you've already met that, or close enough. I bet upgraded stereos will be popular, too, if the stock doesn't come with things like bluetooth and/or USB/SD card.

If the advertising program boosts reservations, then it shows continued interest from a wider market, and that the current reservation holders aren't just a fluke, or the sum total of the market. At some point, someone just has to stand up and say "Shut up and take my money! Build it!"

EM could have 2 X the reservations ($600 Million in pre-order sales)and would be no closer to production. I have been saying start building for quite some time now and nobody is listening. I don't consider the current 50,000 reservations a fluke. If that's the case then any number of pre orders could be considered a fluke if there is in fact any EM concern about market demand after production begins. Wait to long and the clock stops. I'll say it again, You've taken our money, now build it, or at least fnish the P5 and start the E Builds. One more year and we will know for certain. Popcorn munching on the edge of my seat.

 

[Elio Amazed]

The wonderful thing about numbers is that you can get them to support any position you want.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

EM could have 2 X the reservations ($600 Million in pre-order sales)and would be no closer to production. I have been saying start building for quite some time now and nobody is listening. I don't consider the current 50,000 reservations a fluke. If that's the case then any number of pre orders could be considered a fluke if there is in fact any EM concern about market demand after production begins. Wait to long and the clock stops. I'll say it again, You've taken our money, now build it, or at least fnish the P5 and start the E Builds. One more year and we will know for certain. Popcorn munching on the edge of my seat.

Thank you!! (skip the butter- (use nutritional yeast) )

 

[DeltaMike]

EM could have 2 X the reservations ($600 Million in pre-order sales)and would be no closer to production. I have been saying start building for quite some time now and nobody is listening. I don't consider the current 50,000 reservations a fluke. If that's the case then any number of pre orders could be considered a fluke if there is in fact any EM concern about market demand after production begins. Wait to long and the clock stops. I'll say it again, You've taken our money, now build it, or at least fnish the P5 and start the E Builds. One more year and we will know for certain. Popcorn munching on the edge of my seat.

I'm not totally certain I follow you. I totally get the desire to see VIN 1 roll off the line.
If the desire is to have EM skip the remainder of the engineering, then I'm not with you. From my experience, it may take longer to engineer a final product that incorporates existing part than when most or all are 'clean slate'. I also don't believe that anyone at EM is intentionally delaying but actually pressing ahead as fast as possible within limitations. This all goes back to the engineering axiom: Faster, Cheaper, Better; pick any two. Elio has obviously chosen to target lowest cost using existing parts. And better with a unique vehicle design. So...faster is not an engineered option. And I agree that throwing more money and engineers at the problem can actually result in more problems and longer timeframe. Paul is an engineer so I don't think he would agree to spend money on marketing/ads if engineering were shorted in doing so. And way beyond our relatively small concerns would seem to be the substantial interests of his few big investors. Doubtless, they know details we can only imagine and must be onboard with Paul.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

. "And way beyond our relatively small concerns would seem to be the substantial interests of his few big investors"
Not my call, but the big investors seem to be keeping their checkbooks at home. I'd of thought a few would provide the $ to make it happen at this time, with all the recent announcements.
There's always tomorrow's Blog,I'm hoping not to hear about the floods in California, etc.

 

[Rickb]

I'm not totally certain I follow you. I totally get the desire to see VIN 1 roll off the line.
If the desire is to have EM skip the remainder of the engineering, then I'm not with you. From my experience, it may take longer to engineer a final product that incorporates existing part than when most or all are 'clean slate'. I also don't believe that anyone at EM is intentionally delaying but actually pressing ahead as fast as possible within limitations. This all goes back to the engineering axiom: Faster, Cheaper, Better; pick any two. Elio has obviously chosen to target lowest cost using existing parts. And better with a unique vehicle design. So...faster is not an engineered option. And I agree that throwing more money and engineers at the problem can actually result in more problems and longer timeframe. Paul is an engineer so I don't think he would agree to spend money on marketing/ads if engineering were shorted in doing so. And way beyond our relatively small concerns would seem to be the substantial interests of his few big investors. Doubtless, they know details we can only imagine and must be onboard with Paul.

I said the opposite of skip engineering. I think EM should spend all the available funding on whatever engineering and production protocol is needed to get the Elio to production and minimize (skip any additional) funding spent on marketing and advertising. Advertise only after the product is ready to sell.

Frankly, I have been following EM since '08 and feel that is an adequate amount of time to design and engineer freeze the heck out of the simple Elio platform. What I don't understand is why they are still retrofitting and tinkering around with the P5.

I thought the E builds and testing would verify the design and engineering freeze specifications of the P5 and E testing would mandate any design or engineering changes. That process would result in a final production ready Elio. I don't think they can officially start the E's and testing until there is an engineering freeze based on the certifiable P5. Some think E building has already started. It's possible, but I need verification.

RUCRAYZE, Serious investors may see this as an issue too and won't provide venture capital for additional prototyping and testing that is currently funded. They are waiting on EM. When there is a peformance tested, fully certified Elio that has some verifiable daily driving miles on the Elgin Odometer, I think venture capitalists will open their wallets to provide the production funding needed, but no additional development funding public or private. I could be wrong and appreciate all other view points.