outsydthebox
Elio Addict
- Joined
- May 6, 2014
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I think EV's have a deffinite role to play in the future, but I think they'll be only one technology used. As far as the whole infrastructure/where to charge them and from what, I think it's all pretty academic really. There are a million ways to generate electricity, and the only questions are how much resources we have to put in, and how much we'll get out. Charging a battery with it once we've got it is hardly a great challenge of our century. My question remains; If lithium batteries are the best we've got and we want to go to an all EV world, Is there enough lithium? Sure we can recycle it, but we have to put batteries in a vehicle that replaces EVERY car on the planet, plus the MANY more that will be added between now and then. Seriously, I doubt we have that much. Also, I would really like someone to actually address the issue of cold weather operation. I'm not against EV at all, but we got to be real, It WON'T WORK in a northern winter. Not unless a quantum leap in batteries power density occurs. 'course the rural north is where it's coldest and the challenge of vehicle range is greatest at the same time. EV's will not take hold in the north. We will need a combination solution.
And we can't point to microelectronics as a predictor of the future of everything. There is a big, BIG difference in packing more computational power behind a prettier screen every year and using that trend to say cars of any kind MUST get cheaper and/or better ll the time. Granted, the more copies of something you make, the cheaper you can make it, but there's a limit in raw materials. A car is not a computer. It's a big metal box with a big metal engine, and a complex metal transmission. The cost of working all that metal into chapel will not be 1 tenth next decade what it costs today, despite they will have another 100 fold increase in computer capacity between now and then. The price of goods like steel and motors and batteries and labor fluctuate according to market forces, not by More's law.
I am all for exploring new technologies, but Supercaps I have little faith in. Sure a huge breakthrough could happen, but then again they might discover tomorrow that we can derive unlimited energy harnessing the brain energy in internet forums. I'm not putting my money on that one either. Can we build a better battery? Sure. Can we build a battery that's a million times better? probably not. And for Supercaps that is what we would need, a million-fold improvement in power density, and short of a miricle , it's NOT gonna happen. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to eat crow on that prediction. It would solve a LOT of problems, but I'm pretty sure based on 20+ years in electronics that this dog ain't gonna hunt.
That's why I stick to my multiple-source prediction for future of transportation. No one solution is presently looking like it will save us all. So with the game in the current lineup, there's no one winner.
Her is an alternative that no one here has talked about.
