Is Elio Sandbagging?

[Oldfarmer]

Talked to a couple of the guys with the Elio team Saturday in Charlotte about production startup. As I expected, they both said what we all have heard over and over- 4th quarter '15.
But- I sorta got the impression that they might be holding back and it could start as early as the first of September as originally planned. One of them flat out said he expected to start earlier than currently predicted with as few as 100+ cars a day with a very limited production crew and hours.

 

[goofyone]

Talked to a couple of the guys with the Elio team Saturday in Charlotte about production startup. As I expected, they both said what we all have heard over and over- 4th quarter '15.
But- I sorta got the impression that they might be holding back and it could start as early as the first of September as originally planned. One of them flat out said he expected to start earlier than currently predicted with as few as 100+ cars a day with a very limited production crew and hours.

At this point with the engine undergoing full scale development to be followed by full vehicle testing when the engine is tested enough for that I do believe EM has set things in motion to make a serious run of at the very least having some pre-production vehicles coming of the line by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Having said that I also believe that 3rd quarter production is predicated on receiving the ATVM loan in the first half of the year and my guess is that EM is using the production schedule as a carrot to encourage the DOE to approve that loan. Politicians like opportunities to look good, as they generally do a good job looking like idiots, so it would look really good if the DOE approves the loan and less than six months later the first of 10's of thousands of pre-ordered vehicles begins rolling of the assembly line in Shreveport.

If the ATVM loan takes longer than expected or the ATVM loan is denied then timing may shift but hopefully the private funds which EM says they have commitments materialize at this point as a denial of the ATVM loan would not be good news for EM and would be a hurdle they would have to overcome very quickly to keep the negative publicity this would cause them under control.

 

[CompTrex]

At this point with the engine undergoing full scale development to be followed by full vehicle testing when the engine is tested enough for that I do believe EM has set things in motion to make a serious run of at the very least having some pre-production vehicles coming of the line by the end of the 3rd quarter.

Having said that I also believe that 3rd quarter production is predicated on receiving the ATVM loan in the first half of the year and my guess is that EM is using the production schedule as a carrot to encourage the DOE to approve that loan. Politicians like opportunities to look good, as they generally do a good job looking like idiots, so it would look really good if the DOE approves the loan and less than six months later the first of 10's of thousands of pre-ordered vehicles begins rolling of the assembly line in Shreveport.

If the ATVM loan takes longer than expected or the ATVM loan is denied then timing may shift but hopefully the private funds which EM says they have commitments materialize at this point as a denial of the ATVM loan would not be good news for EM and would be a hurdle they would have to overcome very quickly to keep the negative publicity this would cause them under control.

So @goofyone , currently, what is the official, announced, EM production start date? 3qtr 2015 or 4qtr 2015? or end of 2015? or sometime in 2015?

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

Invoking Betteridge's Law of Headlines: No.

I don't see any incentive for them to sandbag, but strong incentive for them to be optimistic.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Agreed with GPA here... in most lines of business, you strive to under-promise and over-deliver. I makes no sense to say 3rd qtr or 4th qtr if you have no intention of making it. It does make sense to have plans and backup plans and contingencies to those backups, so that you can do everything possible to make or beat a stated milestone date.

I'll keep howling it from the rooftops: there are variables out of Elio's control that directly affect the start of production. That and Elio Motors is a startup company. If you keep that in mind, you can keep your sanity and your blood pressure down 8 points.

Paul Elio said it in an interview... you have a task that needs done, that is the right thing to do... you focus on doing that, then when it's done, you move forward to the next task, and start working on it.

My mantra over the years: plan the work, and work the plan.

So sure, we can hope or guess or wonder that they really might be able to start production in Sept. But rather than unbuckle your seat-belt, stand up, look around, and have your hands free... it's best to sit down, buckle your seat belt, grab on to something, and enjoy the ride. That's what I'm doing.

 

[Tomg3rd]

I haven't heard that progress has been made on finding a new air conditioner supplier or developing the transmission...Still a lot to do before production begins. I do hope it happens in 2015 though!

 

[Neal]

Invoking Betteridge's Law of Headlines: No.

I don't see any incentive for them to sandbag, but strong incentive for them to be optimistic.

I don't know. With past delays, I think they are smart at this point to under promise and over deliver. If they gave a mor eoptimistic date and something came up that they had to delay, it would be devistating. I think they will hold fast until they are %1000 sure.

 

[Mr Deleon]

with 100% accuracy 34% of the time I can predict that production of the Elio will begin the the moment the first production Elio begins its journey down the assembly.

 

[Neal]

with 100% accuracy 34% of the time I can predict that production of the Elio will begin the the moment the first production Elio begins its journey down the assembly.

You may be on to something there!

 

[goofyone]

So @goofyone , currently, what is the official, announced, EM production start date? 3qtr 2015 or 4qtr 2015? or end of 2015? or sometime in 2015?

The official production start date has only moved once this year in May when Paul said they could not be able to do it in the first half of 2015 so 3rd quarter of 2015 was the goal. As I said above, and was mentioned by Oldfarmer, they are apparently still trying to make it within that time frame so we just have to watch and wait to see if they can indeed get the line up and running by then.

I haven't heard that progress has been made on finding a new air conditioner supplier or developing the transmission...Still a lot to do before production begins. I do hope it happens in 2015 though!

The issue is that most of this stuff happens behind the scenes so it is hard to say exactly what has or has not been accomplished so far.

What we do know is that according to Jerome Vassallo in Charlotte this past weekend they now have an all electric AC unit lined up which also provides the benefit of allowing them to remove the AC compressor from the side of the engine. This is indeed a change versus where things were earlier in the year but is not unexpected as in the town hall we heard there was an issue with the other unit exiting production.

Jerome also told us in Charlotte that the Aisin 5-speed transmission was still their choice and as this is completely off the shelf I don't foresee it being a big deal as the only thing EM needs to do is verify the gear ratios work as indicated by the computer models and refine the AMT programming. There has been some conflicting information on the transmission which I hope we can get cleared up in the next few weeks however this all appears to be well under control for them.