I'm talking about demand by those who have not put down a deposit at all, much less at the $1k level. I think 60,000 deposits indicates about 3 million will want one when it's available for immediate delivery.
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Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017
- Thread starter goofyone
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I'd venture to say your 20 number is low.
Sailor Dog
Elio Addict
Based on prior reservation models and historical precedent I believe that a multiple of 50-100 times would be accurate when a car can be bought from the showroom 62,000×50-100 likely means US demand within 1 year of 3-6 MILLION PEOPLE!!! WORLDWIDE DEMAND OF 9-18 MILLION!!! World wide demand based on greater interest for the Elio in India especially. Reservations will likely rapidly accelerate at 1500-1000 left...just based on what I'm hearing back from the the people I've preached about Elio to... everyone wants a reservation at the last minute.... hoping the deadline comes after the credit card billing cycle closes with all the Christmas gifts to pay for!!!
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Sailor Dog
Elio Addict
Which begs the question...with potential for US demand of 3-6 MILLION and production at 250,000 Elios annually...how to avoid a 12-24 year backlog!!!
Do you have a source for your 50 to 100X?
I believe Elio will sell globally, but not that we'll in India. It will be too expensive and not enough seat.
Rob Croson
Elio Addict
I understand there will be a lot of empty space at the factory even after they get the line moving at full speed.
Other than direct assessments our member have done, self included, Elio did a study where only 7% of people knew about it. I want to say that was around at 30k reservations. My determined assessment gave me over 10:1 ratio. 20:1 is possible best I can figure.
So we all calculated on that basis, I think figured around, that 30k * (100/7) = 478k potential reservations from the full population, and at production that means x * 10 = 4.75 million (in just the US) would go for it in the first year if enough product were available. ( or 9 mil if you use *20). This does not say what year 2 would be like once everyone gets past the novelty factor, or if all the demand was satiated.
I believe there is another variable that we really can't figure in yet; that is copycats. If Elio takes off that well (which I believe is quite possible) who is going to have the first knockoff? Possibly Polaris wither a slightly reworked Slingshot; that's the closest one on the market that's on the market that wouldn't have to do that much of a change; and their draw would be the performance difference, and the seating. Because it is higher performance they'll have to downplay the mileage side and the price difference.
CDJ27
Elio Fan
This. I will likely not bump up from $100 (11/12/2016) all-in to $1000 until at the earliest there is a firm production start date.
I did my bump up when the bonus was still 50%; plus since I was an early adopter, there was an additional bonus we received.