Usa Today - Money Article And Video

[Jeff Porter]

http://usat.ly/1t4TvuI

Interesting quote from Paul, towards the end, not for it's news-worthiness, just ... interesting:

"I predict that we will sell out the first-year's production before we make the first vehicle."

That's sort of a "duh" to us, yes? :-) And probably a goal for Elio Motors, one would think.

You can slide the scales back and forth to your liking... but we are at 27,000+ now, on track to be 39,000+ by end of '14... production estimates in the first year vary... and then the plan for now is around Sept 2015 for production to start. It's straight-forward, maybe even obvious (*gasp!*), that first-year will sell out before production starts. I think most of us agree that they will need to give that 30-day notice, I've read in various threads here, when reservations reach the number that Elio Motors feels they can crank out the first year. Example text from them: "Reservations will no longer be taken as of ______, as we have reached the number of reservations that we feel we can fulfill during the first year of production."

One variable that's been floating in the back of my mind for weeks now: fleet sales. I would not be surprised if EM has 'x' number of consumer vehicles and 'y' number of fleet vehicles = the first year of production.

Thoughts? Comments? Jabs? :-)

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

The sticky bit for me is what is the first year's capacity for production? Have they released a number?

Mr. Elio likes to tout the 250,000 units a year number, but that is probably complete fantasy for at least the first couple of years. I think it would be wildly optimistic to say they would hit 100,000 vehicles by the end of 2016. I could be wrong.

 

[zelio]

The sticky bit for me is what is the first year's capacity for production? Have they released a number?

Mr. Elio likes to tout the 250,000 units a year number, but that is probably complete fantasy for at least the first couple of years. I think it would be wildly optimistic to say they would hit 100,000 vehicles by the end of 2016. I could be wrong.

I know 40,000 keeps popping up but honestly don't know the source. Although there has been some suggestion that the plant will be capable of a much higher production figure but the staging of the pre-orders will be limited to around 40,000. This is because the staging will be done at the plant rather than setting up stores in advance to handle the orders for options and delivering the vehicles. It is all speculation though, as far as I know. :-) Z

 

[zelio]

http://usat.ly/1t4TvuI

Interesting quote from Paul, towards the end, not for it's news-worthiness, just ... interesting:

"I predict that we will sell out the first-year's production before we make the first vehicle."

That's sort of a "duh" to us, yes? And probably a goal for Elio Motors, one would think.

You can slide the scales back and forth to your liking... but we are at 27,000+ now, on track to be 39,000+ by end of '14... production estimates in the first year vary... and then the plan for now is around Sept 2015 for production to start. It's straight-forward, maybe even obvious (*gasp!*), that first-year will sell out before production starts. I think most of us agree that they will need to give that 30-day notice, I've read in various threads here, when reservations reach the number that Elio Motors feels they can crank out the first year. Example text from them: "Reservations will no longer be taken as of ______, as we have reached the number of reservations that we feel we can fulfill during the first year of production."

One variable that's been floating in the back of my mind for weeks now: fleet sales. I would not be surprised if EM has 'x' number of consumer vehicles and 'y' number of fleet vehicles = the first year of production.

Thoughts? Comments? Jabs?

Good video. I know EM is planning on fleet sales because the name of the VIP of that division/department was announced sometime within the last few weeks. Do you mean you think they will try to reach that goal after the reserved orders but before they start producing for the general public, or something else? :-) Z

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

40,000 is in my inexperienced opinion an achievable and reasonable number for the first year of production. I will be encouraged If they cut off reservations at that number since it will tell me their heads are not completely in the clouds.

 

[Jim H]

The sticky bit for me is what is the first year's capacity for production? Have they released a number?

Mr. Elio likes to tout the 250,000 units a year number, but that is probably complete fantasy for at least the first couple of years. I think it would be wildly optimistic to say they would hit 100,000 vehicles by the end of 2016. I could be wrong.

If I recall correctly Elio Motors plans on beginning slowly at 250 vehicles per day and has the capacity to increase to 1000 per day based on the demand. That's why I am fairly confident I will have mine before Christmas 2015 because at the 250 per day rate it will only take 14 production days to get to my number. They can start as late as November and I will still have mine before Christmas.

 

[Ty]

Rather than set a date to stop accepting "first year's production", it makes more sense to say "Elio will stop taking reservations at 40,000 (or whatever number)" If they said "Elio will stop taking reservations December 31st.", they can't control that number of reservations and would have to change production to match.

Has anyone thought that maybe Elio will call September - December 2015 their first model year? They'd be hard pressed to produce them all in the 12 weeks (October - December), but at 533 per day starting September 1st... Anyway, it was just a thought that struck me... And they wouldn't necessarily have to complete their "year" by the end of December... I'd rather see them use fiscal years as their production year... Starting 01 October 2015, they'd produce their 2016 Elio yourfavoritename's... and would produce them till the introduction of the 2017 Elio ElectroHybridSuperSportster on 01 October 2016.

 

[Jeff Porter]

Good video. I know EM is planning on fleet sales because the name of the VIP of that division/department was announced sometime within the last few weeks. Do you mean you think they will try to reach that goal after the reserved orders but before they start producing for the general public, or something else? Z

Z, if I understand your question, yes something along what you said. During the first production year, they satisfy all reservations AND make some fleet vehicles too. Perhaps with fleet vehicles, they could have a target with some organization for 25 vehicles, and if they delivered 15 or 40, might not be a huge thing. If there's say 50 organizations, EM would have some play perhaps if they under-produced.

Rather than set a date to stop accepting "first year's production", it makes more sense to say "Elio will stop taking reservations at 40,000 (or whatever number)" If they said "Elio will stop taking reservations December 31st.", they can't control that number of reservations and would have to change production to match.

Has anyone thought that maybe Elio will call September - December 2015 their first model year? They'd be hard pressed to produce them all in the 12 weeks (October - December), but at 533 per day starting September 1st... Anyway, it was just a thought that struck me... And they wouldn't necessarily have to complete their "year" by the end of December... I'd rather see them use fiscal years as their production year... Starting 01 October 2015, they'd produce their 2016 Elio yourfavoritename's... and would produce them till the introduction of the 2017 Elio ElectroHybridSuperSportster on 01 October 2016.

I hear ya Ty. Maybe it'll be a combination, since they probably don't have an up-to-the-hour tote board of the latest total reservations, and EM won't want to turn away reservations. "Since we are at 38,000+ reservations on ______, we'll go with 2 weeks from today and end the reservations at 11:59pm on ________, as we anticipate a slight increase in daily reservations for these last 2 weeks." And again, this 40,000 number is just pulled from the air and my memory, I'm not sure that we could get a specific number from any of the 25 Elio employees at this time.

 

[zelio]

Rather than set a date to stop accepting "first year's production", it makes more sense to say "Elio will stop taking reservations at 40,000 (or whatever number)" If they said "Elio will stop taking reservations December 31st.", they can't control that number of reservations and would have to change production to match.

Has anyone thought that maybe Elio will call September - December 2015 their first model year? They'd be hard pressed to produce them all in the 12 weeks (October - December), but at 533 per day starting September 1st... Anyway, it was just a thought that struck me... And they wouldn't necessarily have to complete their "year" by the end of December... I'd rather see them use fiscal years as their production year... Starting 01 October 2015, they'd produce their 2016 Elio yourfavoritename's... and would produce them till the introduction of the 2017 Elio ElectroHybridSuperSportster on 01 October 2016.

What is that strange object in your avatar! I miss the other one. And I want my Elio to be a 2015! :-) Z

 

[Gas-Powered Awesome]

Has anyone thought that maybe Elio will call September - December 2015 their first model year?

Not likely. They will probably only produce a few hundred by the end of 2015 if they begin production on time. That's also unlikely.

Likely they will either call it a September-August fiscal year or will just call it 2016 plus the last quarter of 2015.