When Will Production Begin?

[Ekh]

I know that unfortunately you are going to need some new transportation however late summer may be a bit early to really know unless we see little or no movement at all.

I would estimate that the end of this year is when EM's window of opportunity really closes fast. This is when people likely will, and with good reason, begin bailing out on this dream. Without substantial progress in vehicle development and production funding by the end of this year the chances of EM making the mid 2016 deadline are slim as it is highly likely that sometime in the first quarter of 2016 EM will hit a hard deadline where RACER Trust and IRG tell them to put up or shut up.

I highly doubt there will be another delay announcement unless it is obvious things are really on track as EM would have to convince RACER Trust and IRG that they are really good production. If EM were to hit that 'put up or shut up' moment and lose control of the plant I would bet the investors move to sell, or more likely liquidate, EM as an attempt to recoup whatever they can.

Hopefully we do not have to test these scenarios and EM is able to work things out this year via the ATVM loan program and/or private investment. It is only January so they have plenty of time to show the needed progress this year. There is still plenty of time before things become desperate.

I think their window is much narrower than you do. If they haven't gotten a big chunk of cash prior to June of this year, August at the absolute latest, they're cooked. Meanwhile, they MUST find a way to get the engine running in a true prototype, not a mule. That needs to be done by June, and earlier would be better. If I were Elio, getting that done, and capitalizing on the real-world data that results, would be priority #2 -- priority #1 is getting investors or the ATVM business online. Actually, I think getting that engine into a true prototype might sway both investors and DOE. Get it done, Paul!

 

[goofyone]

I think their window is much narrower than you do. If they haven't gotten a big chunk of cash prior to June of this year, August at the absolute latest, they're cooked. Meanwhile, they MUST find a way to get the engine running in a true prototype, not a mule. That needs to be done by June, and earlier would be better. If I were Elio, getting that done, and capitalizing on the real-world data that results, would be priority #2 -- priority #1 is getting investors or the ATVM business online.

The 'big chunk of cash' is one thing we will likely not see unless it is from the ATVM loan and even then EM would use the loan guarantee in stages as there is no need to run out and get a single huge loan which EM must begin paying straight away. This was actually one thing that Paul Elio made sure to emphasize during the town hall as most people do not understand it. Investors will never simply hand EM $200+ million at once, and EM does not want the burden of taking on all that money at once, as it also increases EM's carrying costs as that money comes with a cost. Funding will happen in stages where smaller amounts of money are committed to the project over time as EM meets various objectives and/or requests more funds from investors. Indeed the reason why EM is in the tight sport they are right now is because this round of funding was supposed to come from equipment sales which took longer to get started than EM expected they would.

I agree that moving engine and vehicle development forward needs to be a priority after the funding. Indeed EM is very aware of this also so it will happen in a timely fashion as they understand that sooner is better for this. This very well may happen by June however I do need to ask what is your reasoning behind the June deadline on the vehicle as it sounds very arbitrary?

 

[Ekh]

The 'big chunk of cash' is one thing we will likely not see unless it is from the ATVM loan and even then EM would use the loan guarantee in stages as there is no need to run out and get a single huge loan which EM must begin paying straight away. This was actually one thing that Paul Elio made sure to emphasize during the town hall as most people do not understand it. Investors will never simply hand EM $200+ million at once, and EM does not want the burden of taking on all that money at once, as it also increases EM's carrying costs as that money comes with a cost. Funding will happen in stages where smaller amounts of money are committed to the project over time as EM meets various objectives and/or requests more funds from investors. Indeed the reason why EM is in the tight sport they are right now is because this round of funding was supposed to come from equipment sales which took longer to get started than EM expected they would.

I agree that moving engine and vehicle development forward needs to be a priority after the funding. Indeed EM is very aware of this also so it will happen in a timely fashion as they understand that sooner is better for this. This very well may happen by June however I do need to ask what is your reasoning behind the June deadline on the vehicle as it sounds very arbitrary?

Of course you're correct about doling the money out in stages.
"big chunk" in this context -- getting the prototypes built and keeping the doors open -- would amount to about 5-7 million, at a guess, but anything beyond that and beyond june would certainly take large amounts of money.

 

[Ekh]

The 'big chunk of cash' is one thing we will likely not see unless it is from the ATVM loan and even then EM would use the loan guarantee in stages as there is no need to run out and get a single huge loan which EM must begin paying straight away. This was actually one thing that Paul Elio made sure to emphasize during the town hall as most people do not understand it. Investors will never simply hand EM $200+ million at once, and EM does not want the burden of taking on all that money at once, as it also increases EM's carrying costs as that money comes with a cost. Funding will happen in stages where smaller amounts of money are committed to the project over time as EM meets various objectives and/or requests more funds from investors. Indeed the reason why EM is in the tight sport they are right now is because this round of funding was supposed to come from equipment sales which took longer to get started than EM expected they would.

I agree that moving engine and vehicle development forward needs to be a priority after the funding. Indeed EM is very aware of this also so it will happen in a timely fashion as they understand that sooner is better for this. This very well may happen by June however I do need to ask what is your reasoning behind the June deadline on the vehicle as it sounds very arbitrary?

Let me put together a little gant chart (purely speculative, but so what) answering your question. June 1 IS arbitrary, but not nuts.

 

[BlioKart]

I agree with G1 the end of the year does seem like a better indicator of where they are. 11 months or so to go. I have a feeling this will all pan out and production will start in April/May of next year. Would be nice to know about funding as its the only obstacle for production now. Seems like a big waste to let all this work go for naught..

 

[Robert Moorman]

When I became an all in owner # 3257 the production date was slated for the latter part of 2014 but I knew different being involved in the design and production in the aircraft industry; then a new production date came out for the 3rd quarter of 2015 and just today I find out it is now the later part of 2016; really? Give us a solid realistic production date!

 

[JEBar]

Give us a solid realistic production date!

after reading everything I can find on this forum, releases from EM, news reports (mostly from Louisiana), and other news sources I have no doubt that EM would love to be able to do just that .... to me it appears the problem is, variables they can't control are making it impossible for them to do so .... I really don't think that they know .... it all boils down to funding .... they can't control when the feds will make an announcement on the loan .... it seems logical to believe that they are working on gaining private funding but the gorilla in the room is that federal loan .... they have been burned in the press and by their supports as well by missing production dates to the point that I can understand them being a vague as possible .... while I don't really like it, I can understand their position

 

[Rickb]

As Elio tends to announce delays about half a year prior to planned production I am waiting till late summer this year, if there is another announced delay I will be declaring Elio dead to me and buy something else.

I agree, but if there is no word that funding is secure, prototypes aren't being built and tested, with that first prototype sent off to tool up the plant for production, and the ride and drive events aren't underway providing renewed excitiement, you won't have to wait for the official delay announcement it will be obvious.

 

[Rickb]

When I became an all in owner # 3257 the production date was slated for the latter part of 2014 but I knew different being involved in the design and production in the aircraft industry; then a new production date came out for the 3rd quarter of 2015 and just today I find out it is now the later part of 2016; really? Give us a solid realistic production date!

Without realistc funding there can be no realistic production date.

 

[imageon]

I will be looking more for incremental advances as the year 2015 progresses. With a few blossoms of hope from the government loan or unidentified flying donators.Including the engine going into the P4 or even better a P5. If I haven't seen anything incremental in by July or August, I will become worried very worried.
MK