Will It Happen

[Marshall]

While I too would pay $10k (loaded, out the door) for my Elio, that is because it is on paper the exact vehicle I have been looking for as a companion to my motorcycle for commuting. My "and" vehicle, since we have my wife's SUV for shopping, family hauling, etc.

But if we want it to be an explosive hit, it needs to be much cheaper than what is currently on the market. Smart cars are what I usually compare it to, small car with better gas mileage than a lot of other cars on the road, two person capacity with limited trunk space. And at $14k, looks like they are moving about 10,000 cars per year. Would double the MPG help that? I highly doubt it. But if it were half the price, I think they would be everywhere.

The Nissan Versa, much more practical for most families since it is not an "and" car, has a base MSRP of $11,600. Not the MPG queen the Elio should be, but can carry the spouse, kids, and a dog. Last year, it looks like they sold 144,000 Nissan Versas in the US: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-versa-sales-figures.html

Assuming the general public can be convinced the Elio is not a death trap, I really think it has to be priced significantly under something like the Versa to make up for the lack of utility. Much more than just $1,600 less.

Interesting you should mention the Versa. That's what My daughter got with my assistance and will retain it's utility for an econimical passenger vehicle. But will struggle as the entry level economic choice for many who are the SECONDARY target group after the AND market like I am. I want a vehicle to keep miles off my Prius and extend it's life. It is also a good way to add life to all those expensive trucks on the road who were purchased for their utility, but widely driven to commute when that utility is not needed.

 

[JEBar]

I agree completely, I was just responding to the possibility of pricing the Elio at $10k, versus $6,800. At $6,800 you are in a new car market of one, competing with used cars outside of their warranty and of dubious reliability. At $10k, you are perilously near new compacts with much more utility and slightly used cars still in their warranty period.

I am sure Elio's market research shows good numbers at the projected price point, it is one that makes sense on many fronts. I am sure that if they did the same research at $10k, the forecast would not look quite so good. At least until Elio is established in the marketplace and has a solid reputation. Then the premium Elio luxury and performance models can tickle that price point

agree, we are saying pretty much the same thing in a different manner .... one key is "base price" .... I believe that the early generation VW Beetles is a pretty good analogy of what is on the horizon for an Elio .... I have every confidence that the aftermarket customization market is going to be huge .... an Elio lends itself to personalization on a scale that very few other vehicles can match

 

[Jeff Porter]

I agree completely, I was just responding to the possibility of pricing the Elio at $10k, versus $6,800. At $6,800 you are in a new car market of one, competing with used cars outside of their warranty and of dubious reliability. At $10k, you are perilously near new compacts with much more utility and slightly used cars still in their warranty period.

I am sure Elio's market research shows good numbers at the projected price point, it is one that makes sense on many fronts. I am sure that if they did the same research at $10k, the forecast would not look quite so good. At least until Elio is established in the marketplace and has a solid reputation. Then the premium Elio luxury and performance models can tickle that price point

I see your point and I hear ya.

A person could go several different directions on this topic, but focusing on the statements above... if you are talking a car dealer, you can't find a quality used vehicle under 100k miles and less than 8 yrs old for $10k.

And comparing apples to apples, if you put the options on an Elio to get the price to $10k, you can't touch a new compact with the same options for what, $15k? Can't be done. I love shopping for cars, if someone wants to get on a website and quote a new compact with extra options, that'd be educational. I see the Chevy Spark 2016 starts at $16k+. Hyundai Elantra starts at $14,700+.

Moving on to used cars within a warranty... you wouldn't get a quality vehicle for $10k. Just don't see it. I recently shopped for a car for my son aged 22, and long story short, we ended up getting him an '04 Buick Lesabre that had 67k miles for $9k. As I was shopping for vehicles, if the vehicle year got anything near '09 and had 10k miles/yr, and it was a quality vehicle, the price went above $10k. Yes, buying a car from a private individual would reduce the price.

It was my experience that you have to give up something: age of the car, quality of the car, miles on the car... to get a used car at $10k.

Getting back to apples to apples: you can find used compacts of high quality that are $6800, but those are not new. Yes, there are folks that argue how much value you lose as you drive a new vehicle off the lot, and how they prefer to buy a used one.

But for this discussion, at $10k, I can't find a new compact and I can't find slightly used cars within warranty. If someone else can, I'm open to it.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Elio brings you options.

There won't be mandatory "package" upgrades. So if you want cruise control in most cars, you have to buy the Luxury package that includes leather seats and foot warmer.

I also think that the "Secondary Car" market is overstated to buy the confidence of potential investors.
Most buyers are likely going to be people ditching "junkers", college students, people with tight budgets, and heavily influenced by modders.

 

[wizard of ahs]

Don't forget us downsizing old geezers

 

[Marshall]

Incorrect, debt is a huge thing. I understand your a mod here but please don't say such things as you and I both know its false. Debt is huge. Debt determines how much more money you can get from people that are not....you guessed it...in debt. So for a small company this is big.

Debt also determines which\when\if and how other businesses will work with you. If you come to me and want me to give\make parts for you guess what, if your in over your head 1) you will get parts but only on a cash basis. 2) you are not going to get the economy of scale. Which as a niche vehicle it has already given up.




If any of you believe that Elio will sell 275k in the first year then there is no hope for you at all. I don't believe most of you understand what is involved in producing 275k of anything in a year much less 350k in the second.

If we can guestimate a 15% profit margin on 6800$ that gives us a total cost to manufacture of 5780. Heck lets assume im off and be generous and give them 20% of that 6800, that is $5440 cost to manufacture. The cost to manufacture 275k units in year 1= $5440x275000= $1,496,000,000. Yes and that's year 1. Where is this money going to come from? Hopes and dreams? Fairies? You guys? You read that number right?

To me the obvious answer is that it doesn't. This still excludes all the money that it takes just to get to the point where they CAN produce something, anything.

Years not months folks of pushing back dates. The same rag tag few vehicles making the rounds for the last 3-4 years. The same hype and same song and dance of "next year".

Once again, I would love to have one and I hope I am absolutely wrong. But nothing they have done says to this point says otherwise.

I understand you're tired of the wait. But it can work and there is every indication it will work. Just a little longer and we'll get there.

 

[slinches]

Incorrect, debt is a huge thing. I understand your a mod here but please don't say such things as you and I both know its false. Debt is huge. Debt determines how much more money you can get from people that are not....you guessed it...in debt. So for a small company this is big.

Debt also determines which\when\if and how other businesses will work with you. If you come to me and want me to give\make parts for you guess what, if your in over your head 1) you will get parts but only on a cash basis. 2) you are not going to get the economy of scale. Which as a niche vehicle it has already given up.

Debt is important, but it is also necessary. It's the only way other than being a billionaire to start a company that produces something as complex as a motor vehicle.

If any of you believe that Elio will sell 275k in the first year then there is no hope for you at all. I don't believe most of you understand what is involved in producing 275k of anything in a year much less 350k in the second.

If we can guestimate a 15% profit margin on 6800$ that gives us a total cost to manufacture of 5780. Heck lets assume im off and be generous and give them 20% of that 6800, that is $5440 cost to manufacture. The cost to manufacture 275k units in year 1= $5440x275000= $1,496,000,000. Yes and that's year 1. Where is this money going to come from? Hopes and dreams? Fairies? You guys? You read that number right?

This is what EM had to say about that in the Reg A+ disclosure:
"... the estimated $7,600 retail price is based on a 125,000 annual production volume and a BOM cost target of $5,654 that management expects to achieve at start of production. At 250,000 annual sales, we believe we can achieve the target $6,800 retail price due to lowered BOM costs (a target BOM cost of $5,132) resulting from economies of scale. Our management believes that based on the public response received to date, selling 250,000 vehicles per year at the $6,800 retail price is achievable."

Based on some rough market size calculations, I see no reason to doubt their statement. And the cost to manufacture those vehicles will come from the $2.1 Billion in revenue due to sales (assuming $7600 average sale price).

To me the obvious answer is that it doesn't. This still excludes all the money that it takes just to get to the point where they CAN produce something, anything.

This is the ~$300 Million number that Paul Elio has been touting for quite a while. I can't remember the most recent total offhand, but I think they've raised ~$85 Million of that so far.

Years not months folks of pushing back dates. The same rag tag few vehicles making the rounds for the last 3-4 years. The same hype and same song and dance of "next year".

Once again, I would love to have one and I hope I am absolutely wrong. But nothing they have done says to this point says otherwise.

Okay, you do better. There are no patents protecting the design, so there's nothing stopping you.

 

[Coss]

Incorrect, debt is a huge thing. I understand your a mod here but please don't say such things as you and I both know its false. Debt is huge. Debt determines how much more money you can get from people that are not....you guessed it...in debt. So for a small company this is big.

Debt also determines which\when\if and how other businesses will work with you. If you come to me and want me to give\make parts for you guess what, if your in over your head 1) you will get parts but only on a cash basis. 2) you are not going to get the economy of scale. Which as a niche vehicle it has already given up.




If any of you believe that Elio will sell 275k in the first year then there is no hope for you at all. I don't believe most of you understand what is involved in producing 275k of anything in a year much less 350k in the second.

If we can guestimate a 15% profit margin on 6800$ that gives us a total cost to manufacture of 5780. Heck lets assume im off and be generous and give them 20% of that 6800, that is $5440 cost to manufacture. The cost to manufacture 275k units in year 1= $5440x275000= $1,496,000,000. Yes and that's year 1. Where is this money going to come from? Hopes and dreams? Fairies? You guys? You read that number right?

To me the obvious answer is that it doesn't. This still excludes all the money that it takes just to get to the point where they CAN produce something, anything.

Years not months folks of pushing back dates. The same rag tag few vehicles making the rounds for the last 3-4 years. The same hype and same song and dance of "next year".

Once again, I would love to have one and I hope I am absolutely wrong. But nothing they have done says to this point says otherwise.

Ok then, you've stated your opinions. So now the question is: Why are you here?

 

[HonestTex]

(...hmmmm...Aprilia goes silent, Da Stig pipes in... Same Song, Different Dance...)

 

[bunchathrees]

Their arguments are soooooooooo compelling. I am selling all my shares to the lowest bidder.