Atvm Loan Requirement Changes

[Rob Croson]

Another thing is that every year longer that this car takes to come out, the less likely it is to be that beneficial (in regards to MPGs).

This is actually something that I have to agree with, somewhat.

I have to call you on this one. Mpg is a constant. So is inflation and cost increase. My house will always raise in value over a long period. Over the long run, it doesn't matter what fuel costs, higher mpg will always be a benefit. The higher the cost of fuel the more benefit, but that doesn't mean a less likely chance of being a benefit at a lower cost of fuel.

One of the Elio's major draws is the fuel economy. But vehicles are getting more efficient every year. And every time a manufacturer releases a new vehicle that gets very high mileage figures (say, >40mpg), the draw of getting "up to 84" goes down a bit. Why would someone buy a two-seat three-wheeler that gets 84 when they can buy a full size four passenger car that gets, say, 50mpg? Not only that, but electric's are getting better every year. Chevy Bolt? Tesla Model 3? Electric three-wheelers? What if someone like Polaris decides to build an economy version of their Slingshot?

Let's face it, EM doesn't have forever to get this thing out the door. The viability of an Elio that goes into production mid-2017 is *way* higher than the viability of an Elio that gets delivered late 2018. (Even if their credibility could survive another year-long delay.)

To add to that: If EM succeeds in getting autocycles qualified for CAFE, you can bet the Elio's mpg rating will be highly relevant.

CAFE standards go up every year. That means that every year that goes by, the value of any CAFE credits that EM could one day get are worth less and less. (And this is assuming that federal laws are changed to allow autocycles to benefit from CAFE credits, which I personally am highly skeptical about ever happening.) Someone posted an analysis of the value of Elio's prospective CAFE credits over the coming years, and it declines at a remarkable rate as the CAFE standards go up. Something to the tune of tens of millions of dollars in decrease per year, IIRC.

EM has made great progress this year, there's no denying that. The release of additional E1 vehicles is very nice. And the coming release of even more E1 vehicles will do nothing but increase confidence. But Horn is at least partially correct, in that the longer it takes for EM to actually produce a vehicle, the less viable/revolutionary the idea becomes. Other manufacturers continue to step up to fill the niche with their own products, and the continual march of progress by the major OEMs with increased fuel efficiency in their own economy models makes the 84 MPG less and less attractive. EM has to get the Elio out the door, do it at the low price they are advertising, and in real customer hands in 2017, or they are going to be in serious trouble.

 

[Ekh]

I have to call you on this one. Mpg is a constant. So is inflation and cost increase. My house will always raise in value over a long period. Over the long run, it doesn't matter what fuel costs, higher mpg will always be a benefit. The higher the cost of fuel the more benefit, but that doesn't mean a less likely chance of being a benefit at a lower cost of fuel.

I believe the real underlying problem for Elio is the emergence of electric cars, either hybrid or EV, as competitors. If Elon Musk succeeds in cutting the cost of batteries in half, electric cars with more amenities and more room will be fully competitive with Elio. Autonomous electric cars pose a true threat as fewer and fewer people wants to own cars when they can call them up and have them take them where needed on a moment's notice. Who wouldn't rather pay a dime at a time than thousands out right, provided you had the same flexibility and sense of freedom to go where you want when you want that car ownership now provides.

 

[Karnaj]

I agree, EVs are going to be the killing stroke. I do however think too much credit is being given to the auto makers on mpg. Imho, the only reason fuel efficiency has improved over the last decade is because of federal mandate. Mpgs raised very little from the 60's to the 80's. None of us can state for sure the reason, but all of us have an opinion why.

 

[slinches]

I don't think gas powered 4-wheel automobiles are a threat to the Elio. Their prices are increasing at a faster pace than the savings due to those mpg improvements. It has only gotten more expensive to own a car over the last few decades.

Electrics are the only vehicles trending the other way.

 

[Horn]

Electric vehicles are very very interesting to look at. They aren't viable if you want to drive much more than 100 miles. Great for city use. Once they can get several hundred miles on a charge, they will have something. OR once the infrastructure is built around them. I think they have super fast speed chargers (30 mins) or so that will speed them up. They are big stand alone units.

I recently went to an smaller electric car convention. One interesting point is the only people that can actually sell electricity is the electric companies. I'd assume one way around that is for a gas station/electric charging station would charge you more of a convenience fee. They would technically be selling it, but just call it something else. You know how companies work.

Also, I would be surprised that if/when electric cars get more popular, the quick charging stations would charge a good bit. They are providing you with convenience. That's just the way capitalism is.

Another thing to think of is that as electric cars increase and gas cars decrease, the demand for gas will decrease....When that happens, gas prices go down.

 

[Ty]

Along those lines, I just realized that I am older today than I have ever been in my entire life!

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...4E542793C00987DBE82B4E542793C00987D&FORM=VIRE

 

[Ty]

I have to call you on this one. Mpg is a constant. So is inflation and cost increase. My house will always raise in value over a long period. Over the long run, it doesn't matter what fuel costs, higher mpg will always be a benefit. The higher the cost of fuel the more benefit, but that doesn't mean a less likely chance of being a benefit at a lower cost of fuel.

His point is that the average MPG right now is around 27 but by 2025, it will have to be 54. Thus, the advantage of the Elio is diminished. And, he's right. Eventually, every car may get 84 MPG and if that is ever the case, cost would be the only thing Elio has to their advantage... other than the neat factor.

 

[Ty]

Electric vehicles are very very interesting to look at. They aren't viable if you want to drive much more than 100 miles. Great for city use. Once they can get several hundred miles on a charge, they will have something. OR once the infrastructure is built around them. I think they have super fast speed chargers (30 mins) or so that will speed them up. They are big stand alone units.

I recently went to an smaller electric car convention. One interesting point is the only people that can actually sell electricity is the electric companies. I'd assume one way around that is for a gas station/electric charging station would charge you more of a convenience fee. They would technically be selling it, but just call it something else. You know how companies work.

Also, I would be surprised that if/when electric cars get more popular, the quick charging stations would charge a good bit. They are providing you with convenience. That's just the way capitalism is.

Another thing to think of is that as electric cars increase and gas cars decrease, the demand for gas will decrease....When that happens, gas prices go down.

In New Mexico, I know, a homeowner can sell electricity that they generate.

 

[Horn]

His point is that the average MPG right now is around 27 but by 2025, it will have to be 54. Thus, the advantage of the Elio is diminished. And, he's right. Eventually, every car may get 84 MPG and if that is ever the case, cost would be the only thing Elio has to their advantage... other than the neat factor.

Sure, several cars only get 27, but the person shopping for MPG or decides not to buy an Elio isn't going to buy a big truck. They will shop for another fuel efficient vehicle. For example, I know several people with eco cruzes that get almost 50 mpg. I get 50MPG hwy with my 2003 Jetta.

And 27 mpgs is a joke. We should be way higher than it is right now. They know how to do it. "They" just keep screwing around.

 

[Horn]

In New Mexico, I know, a homeowner can sell electricity that they generate.

I guess what the electric car people told me was false. I know you can sell back to the electric company, but not to individuals. Is that what you mean?