Sondors Electric Car

Sethodine · Dec 5, 2016

Everybody talks about "replacing the battery" but I hardly see that as an issue with EVs. The battery degredation curve on the Leaf projects roughly 75% capactiy after 5 years, and between 60-70% capacity at 10 years. The first few years see the greatest drain on the battery's capacity, but after that the speed of degredation plateus to a lower (but steady) rate.

This isn't stellar for the first generation of EVs: an EPA-rated 82-mile range Leaf at 10 years old will only be getting around 55 miles on a full charge. But for cars like the new Chevy Bolt, it's 238-mile range will still be over 150 miles at 10 years old. And at 20 years old, with only about 30% of it's original capacity, it will still have over 70 miles of range (about what my 4-year old Leaf is doing).

But what if I do decide to replace the battery? We throw around numbers like "$5,500 battery pack", but the only people who have actually had to replace the batteries in their Leaf were done under warrenty due to bad batteries. We don't know if Nissan will even offer replacement batteries by the time the first 2011 Leafs are 10 years old. And if they do, would Nissan be selling 10-year-old batteries using a practically ancient formula, or would they be replacing the batteries with the same modern technology that they have logistical access to (i.e. whatever the modern battery formula is)?

It makes more sense that they would offer the latest battery technology to replace the old battery, and this is exactly what Nissan has said they would do. With continuous market-driven research into EV battery technology, I wouldn't be surprised if a replacement battery either a) is cheaper in the future for an 82-mile range replacement, or b) I pay $5,500 and recieve a 200-mile range battery. I would be happy with either outcome.

In short, worrying over replacing the battery is least on my mind.

Coss · Dec 5, 2016

Sethodine said:
Everybody talks about "replacing the battery" but I hardly see that as an issue with EVs. The battery degredation curve on the Leaf projects roughly 75% capactiy after 5 years, and between 60-70% capacity at 10 years. The first few years see the greatest drain on the battery's capacity, but after that the speed of degredation plateus to a lower (but steady) rate.

This isn't stellar for the first generation of EVs: an EPA-rated 82-mile range Leaf at 10 years old will only be getting around 55 miles on a full charge. But for cars like the new Chevy Bolt, it's 238-mile range will still be over 150 miles at 10 years old. And at 20 years old, with only about 30% of it's original capacity, it will still have over 70 miles of range (about what my 4-year old Leaf is doing).

But what if I do decide to replace the battery? We throw around numbers like "$5,500 battery pack", but the only people who have actually had to replace the batteries in their Leaf were done under warrenty due to bad batteries. We don't know if Nissan will even offer replacement batteries by the time the first 2011 Leafs are 10 years old. And if they do, would Nissan be selling 10-year-old batteries using a practically ancient formula, or would they be replacing the batteries with the same modern technology that they have logistical access to (i.e. whatever the modern battery formula is)?

It makes more sense that they would offer the latest battery technology to replace the old battery, and this is exactly what Nissan has said they would do. With continuous market-driven research into EV battery technology, I wouldn't be surprised if a replacement battery either a) is cheaper in the future for an 82-mile range replacement, or b) I pay $5,500 and recieve a 200-mile range battery. I would be happy with either outcome.

In short, worrying over replacing the battery is least on my mind.

The people that worry about replacing the battery are most likely the same people that worry about changing the alternator and jump starting the Elio; and I keep seeing that come up on here. Only reason I cab come up with is because the majority of folks are note used to buying a brand new vehicle.
I was the same way for a long time; I always bought used and would have to repair it within the first 5 years, or when I got it, it wasn't running (those are the really cheap one you can buy.
After I got hurt, working on cars was the last thing on my mind, and I was still buying used, but not used as much as other cars and trucks I have had. the ones I buy now and 6 months to a year old, and someone else paid the depreciation on it.

Rob Croson · Dec 5, 2016

I keep cars a long time. Usually until they are ready for the junk yard. So if a vehicle has a planned repair like that, it really factors into the price of ownership. Especially if the cost of that repair is 25% or more of the purchase price. Range degradation may not be a factor to many people, but it is to me. If it can't get two commutes without a recharge, I don't want it. That's minimum 168 miles for me. So a 20% range loss in five years makes a 200 mile range battery unable to meet my needs. Even assuming that you can trust the manufacturers rated range.

CrimsonEclipse · Dec 5, 2016

The Prius (Gen 1, 2, 3 at least) Are relatively easy to repair/replace the batteries.
Honestly not sure about other electric and hybrid vehicles.

Sethodine · Dec 6, 2016

Rob Croson said:
I keep cars a long time. Usually until they are ready for the junk yard. So if a vehicle has a planned repair like that, it really factors into the price of ownership. Especially if the cost of that repair is 25% or more of the purchase price. Range degradation may not be a factor to many people, but it is to me. If it can't get two commutes without a recharge, I don't want it. That's minimum 168 miles for me. So a 20% range loss in five years makes a 200 mile range battery unable to meet my needs. Even assuming that you can trust the manufacturers rated range.

I gotta say, "two commutes without a recharge" sounds kinda silly to me. It only takes a few seconds to plug in the car when you get home at night, so there's no reason not to plug in every night. And if you are concerned about forgetting to charge up, then they make wireless induction chargers that automatically begin charging your car once you park over them. But forgetting to plug in is like forgetting to stop at a gas station when you had the chance; it's a mistake you only make once in a very long while.

99% of EV charging is done at home, not at public stations. 0.01% of gas car fillups are done at home, and 99.99% at public stations. It's a different way of living, which requires a different way of thinking. And costs less. (Here in Washington The State, we pay < $35 to fuel the Leaf for an entire month.)

By all means, keep the car that works for you.

But if your only concern is cost and range, then I think you are short-changing EVs in your calculations.

And please, don't take any of this as confrontational.

I'm just trying to share my personal experience, as someone who owns an EV and as someone who has bought, sold, fixed, and scrapped more than a handful of clunkers in my brief lifetime. And I plan on holding onto our Leaf for as long as all the other cars I've had.

Rob Croson · Dec 6, 2016

I appreciate your candor and your experiences with EVs in general. I don't take it as confrontational. I think that in the long run, EVs will be the norm for most light duty vehicles.

Maybe my insistence on two commutes without a charge is unreasonable, but that's what I want. Crap happens. I don't want to have to call work and say I'm going to be an hour or two late because the cat knocked the plug out of the car last night. Or run out of charge getting stuck in a giant traffic jam in the middle of a blizzard. (And yes, I commute through nasty snowstorms several times a year.) So yeah, I would probably charge it every night. But I want that insurance just in case something happens. (Just like I fill up when I get down to a quarter tank, even though that's more than enough to make a single commute, and there are at least a dozen gas stations between home and work. Because crap happens.)

AriLea · Dec 6, 2016

For me the issue of the battery pack marketing is about acceptance of the whole industry. These issues were many of the ones that put people off from buying in, keeping the total sales volume suppressed.
The Leaf move to offer future tech is a good first step. But will they finance that pack replacement? It's a big commitment to a change in the business model.
If you can make the entire package financially sound over the entire life cycle, the reasoned segment of the buying public will come around. The tail WILL wag the dog if you clamp it down.

AriLea · Dec 6, 2016

PS, the sparrow is back.... new thread

Rickb · Dec 6, 2016

AriLea said:
For me the issue of the battery pack marketing is about acceptance of the whole industry. These issues were many of the ones that put people off from buying in, keeping the total sales volume suppressed.
The Leaf move to offer future tech is a good first step. But will they finance that pack replacement? It's a big commitment to a change in the business model.
If you can make the entire package financially sound over the entire life cycle, the reasoned segment of the buying public will come around. The tail WILL wag the dog if you clamp it down.

Keep in mind the 300,000 Tesla Model 3 pre-orders when you consider acceptance of EV's and future sales volume.

Rickb · Dec 30, 2016

Sonder's hit the $1 Million fundraising goal! It will be interesting to watch and see if this new start up company can build a proof of concept on that funding.

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