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Reservations: 65341 As Of 6/20/2017

S

Snick

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Ekh said:
Well, I'm not so sure the numbers do speak for themselves. If they did, we wouldn't have people panicking at normal common cause variations.

You're right that selling cars isn't a directly controllable process. However, like any process its stability can be tracked using common statistical methods. Why bother? Because folks here are getting in more of a sweat about short-term swings in reservation numbers than they need to.

I picked on the 6-point example not because it is the only indicator of a trend, but because it's one that people who don't do statistical process control can grasp. You are correct, that there are many charting methods -- most of which I'm rusty on, not having used them in 15 years or so. But if people can get it that apparent swings in sales per unit of time may not be telling any story at all, that's important and helpful to folks who are desperate for Elio to succeed and doubtful that it will.

It's like trying to track the stock market daily, and make buying decisions on that basis. Good way to lose your shirt. So with Elio reservation numbers -- the total number is, of course increasing, but the RATE of increase can vary ... without necessarily meaning the company is floundering or triumphing.

I do think your comments about my knowledge of SPC (or lack thereof) were inappropriately harsh. At least I went through a Deming 3-day ... did you?
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Please accept my apology for harshness of tone.
 
Ty

Ty

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Ekh said:
84/day is about a 15% reduction from the last month or so's numbers. It's disappointing, but, folks, we're looking at what's technically called a "run" chart, creating daily averages from a weekly (more or less) total. The actual daily numbers are probably scattered very widely, ranging from 25 to 175 or so per day. And that's normal. There is going to be plenty of variation within any given week, or month for that matter -- let alone day-by-day.

@Ty -- what's the period covered by your bar chart dated 1/1/1900 ? Also, where are you getting your daily numbers? (I think it's great if they're straight from the source).

In process control, you don't even have a trend line unless 6 or so measurement periods in a row are significantly up OR down from the weekly baseline average (or daily, if we were actually able to count that way).

This is fundamental stuff for measuring quality of a process. So far, there's nothing here to indicate any particular problems with the sales effort... nor any great successes, either. The boost after June 7 IS significant. What happened then?

There does seem to be a correlation between TV air time and reservations upticks, but I haven't don't have the data to really look at it.

Bottom line: if we saw weekly numbers dropping over a six week period, I'd worry. If we saw a huge spike (or drop) sustained over a couple of weeks, I'd ask why. But what we are actually seeing is a normal run chart, cooking along at a normal pace.

Believe me, Mr. Elio (and his production people) know all about the various kinds of run and quality charts. It's meat and bread for the auto industry. Marketing guys may be a little less familiar with such charts ... but I'm guessing they know what the trend line is, if there is one.

What will put a temporary spike (and maybe a permanent one) into the numbers (on the positive side) would be a major purchase order, a completed RUNNING engine, a Federal grant or other major investment ... heck, even a list of options (and estimated prices for them) might really help lift the trend line.
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My data comes straight from the Elio web page and includes every public release of reservations that they put out. My lower chart reflects the one above. The dates are all 1900 because I was fed up with Excel at the time but still wanted to put the information out there. If I'm remembering correctly, there was significant TV exposure right before the spike. It was the one where the reporters got in and drove off. There has been no long-term change in the weekly numbers that has been sustained. However, slow and steady wins the race. Elio probably wants to keep interest up to keep them relevant long enough to start production. It wouldn't do to be extremely popular and then fall off the edge of the earth.

Thinking about it, I wonder if they are shooting for a theoretical number of vehicles that the regional prep center (the one there at the plant) can actually produce in a year. At the speed of the GM line (one vehicle every 52 seconds), the plant would be able to produce well over 100,000 vehicles using just one shift. Their local prep center where all the options are put in per customer order wouldn't normally be as busy as they will that first year as many people will probably take Elio up on their "pick it up, get a tour" offer.

Thinking about it, keeping the Elio kind of exclusive for a year could drive up demand which could result in a price increase for year 2 on. Surely, producing a bunch of vehicles and having no extra capacity for the first year could make some people sell their Elios at quite a profit if there is demand for them. Remember the Miata back in 1992 was selling for $13,900 new or $35,000 used... The dealers were not allowed to sell them higher but there was quite the demand at the time. I could see some people profiteering in the first year while demand is high and production is low.

I'll fix my graphs some time this week so they'll be good next week. The data is correct but the dates on the one are just from some other galaxy.
 
Ty

Ty

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tazairforce said:
Ty,
I'm just curious, in the 'Cars Per Day' bar graph, do you have any idea what caused the spike on 01/19/1900??lol

This just proves that I, and a lot of others, not just like but pay attention to the info you provide, Thanks.
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LOL... The dates are screwed up, that's for sure. I'll have those fixed by next time. That spike was right after Elio was on that morning show where the two reporters got in the car and drove off... and broke the exhaust... Anyway, I think that was the catalyst. I'm not sure if there was a whole new audience that became aware of Elio or if being on a real TV station lent Elio a certain amount of real-ness.
 
zelio

zelio

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eddie66 said:
Here is a TV news file video from when the P3 was there in February 2014

http://www.wnem.com/video?clipId=9051756&autostart=true
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Very interesting. Now we have a face for Joel Shelltron (SP?). I have wondered what the significance of it being in West Branch is but have not been able to find any connection. Troy doesn't seem to be nearby. Thanks for posting that. I don't remember seeing anything about it at that time and I thought I had seen and read everything available. LOL Nice to know I am fallible after all. :-) Z
 
eddie66

eddie66

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zelio said:
Very interesting. Now we have a face for Joel Shelltron (SP?). I have wondered what the significance of it being in West Branch is but have not been able to find any connection. Troy doesn't seem to be nearby. Thanks for posting that. I don't remember seeing anything about it at that time and I thought I had seen and read everything available. LOL Nice to know I am fallible after all. :) Z
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Women will never be equal to men until they can walk down the street with a bald head and a beer gut, and still think they are sexy.:p:p:p
 
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