I doubt the price swings of the stock currently out on the market, will affect the ability to secure production funding. The people with big bucks are knowledgeable about these things and will know it is because there are so few shares out.
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Elio Motors A Billion Dollar Company
- Thread starter John Painter
- Start date
John Painter
Elio Addict
There are several reasons I can think of EM talks about producing 250k units annually. 1) that's part of their business model to get to a $6,800 vehicle, 2) it's what Shreveport can produce at full tilt, 3) one of the earliest comments I can think of is PE making back in February of 2010 a pitch to the City of Pontiac General Employees Retirement System where he discussed one of their markets being school age drivers, and that there are some 25.4 million of them, PE thought/thinks if they can entice just 1% of that group to purchased an Elio that would be 250k units, 4) they do not expect to get to producing 250k over night but over several years (there were some press releases back in in 2014 to that effect), though I'm aware of PE making some comments that came across that he was saying they would, rather than could produce that many in the first year, in short 250k is a goal they believe is very attainable, etc. I think it's hard to say EM is expanding too fast, with just 17 employees currently.... I haven't heard much of any expansion of management, though there would need to be some, maybe a couple dozen? But even with hiring 1500 employees for running the lines, and a few hundred more for finishing /assembling the engines, and what is it 4 employees per retail store? If anything, EM will be running ridiculously lean, though they might be really the right size for what they want to be as a corporate culture.
Over production is clearly not a problem for Tesla Motors, I don't think it will be for Elio Motors (though for different reasons) either, especially after there's a thousand or so bombing around each state. I do not agree with you that less than half of reservation holders will follow through with purchase of their Elio, in part because of the report PE gave at NYIAS that, at that point in time, less than five hundred people had requested refunds, or less than 1% of reservation holders at the time. That percentage is consistent with the range of "truth seekers, complainers, yadda, yadda" I've counted over the years. I think while there may be people who are just ok throwing money at an Elio, even though they have no intention of purchasing one, or even attempting to get their money back, that's not consistent with what little demographic data we have cobbled together which skews to middle class, middle age, white, males. As a cohort, I see that we tend to be pretty committed to the concept of Elio, and for the most part have just enough disposable income to make a calculated risk and put some skin in the game. I do not believe other groups Elio Motors is interested in selling to, have the money to risk on something not yet in production. I don't think EM will get 100% follow through on purchases from reservation holders, there's always going to be churn, I do think they'll get close to that. I think if EM gets to production, they'll have a hard time keeping up with demand.
RUCRAYZE
Elio Addict
Thanks for the middle age! I got the others covered.
Aprilia
Elio Addict
Happy to try and answer!
Without going into boring details...I'm an entrepreneur that has a long standing 30 year background within the automobile industry at a very high level...so this colors my "gut feeling" about Elio's reservation holder's...
So...the non-refundable $1,000 reservation holders (like myself) will probably have a very high conversion rate to delivery...maybe 70 to 75 percent...
But...the $100 reservation holder's have virtually no skin in the game...a high percentage of these individual's will more than likely never be heard from again...
Gas prices are low...and many reservation holder have already had to replace their aging transportation...
Let's face facts...Elio has been promising deliveries since late 2014...I assume a large percentage of the reservation holder have just moved on...and gone away quietly...
Based upon my own personal thought process...I feel even 25K deliveries out of the claimed 50K buyer's would be a huge success for Elio...
DISCLAIMER....it's just my opinion...either I'm right...or I'm wrong!
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The Elio looks to me like a brilliant idea and I do not see how in the world it could not be a smashing success. However, just because it looks like that to me does not mean it looks as appealing to everyone else. I assume EM has had market surveys done by market research firms and is basing a good amount of their optimism on these surveys. I hope they have had new surveys done since the gas prices have dropped.
I am reminded of the Nano, a car made in India for under $2,000. (At least it was planned to be that price but only a few were sold at that price, which quickly went up but was still inexpensive.) It was expected to be a big success--but it was not. It did sell but not nearly in the big numbers expected. I wonder if its parent company (Tatra Motors?) did market surveys or just assumed it would succeed.
I wonder if the Elio is headed down the same path. What worries me is that there was no large upswing in reservations after the NY Auto Show nor the LA Auto Show. I am expecting nothing from this second visit to the NY Auto Show.
I will be watching.
Besides wanting my two vehicles which I will probably get because they are both all in for $1,000, I want EM to succeed because of national pride. The rest of the world’s attempt at inexpensive transportation is the Smart car. The Elio is USA’s attempt at inexpensive transportation--and look at what a fantastic design it is. I hope it succeeds simply because of national pride.
I will be watching this too.
I am reminded of the Nano, a car made in India for under $2,000. (At least it was planned to be that price but only a few were sold at that price, which quickly went up but was still inexpensive.) It was expected to be a big success--but it was not. It did sell but not nearly in the big numbers expected. I wonder if its parent company (Tatra Motors?) did market surveys or just assumed it would succeed.
I wonder if the Elio is headed down the same path. What worries me is that there was no large upswing in reservations after the NY Auto Show nor the LA Auto Show. I am expecting nothing from this second visit to the NY Auto Show.
I will be watching.
Besides wanting my two vehicles which I will probably get because they are both all in for $1,000, I want EM to succeed because of national pride. The rest of the world’s attempt at inexpensive transportation is the Smart car. The Elio is USA’s attempt at inexpensive transportation--and look at what a fantastic design it is. I hope it succeeds simply because of national pride.
I will be watching this too.
RUCRAYZE
Elio Addict
I wonder if the Elio is headed down the same path. What worries me is that there was no large upswing in reservations after the NY Auto Show nor the LA Auto Show. I am expecting nothing from this second visit to the NY Auto Show.
my thinking goes beyond car shows/ tour stops- I had expected a surge after the commercials hit the screens, after all it's TV commercials that drive sales, from floor mats to working man's underwear!!
my thinking goes beyond car shows/ tour stops- I had expected a surge after the commercials hit the screens, after all it's TV commercials that drive sales, from floor mats to working man's underwear!!
CrimsonEclipse
Elio Addict
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that's how stocks work.
So, does your post mean there was no upswing in reservations after the TV commercials? I had never heard but wondered what the results were.
Perhaps EM should give us additional T-shirts with our vehicles or even right now, so we can do some advertising for him. We are the enthusiast and might be the best advertising for EM.
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If sales do not turn out to be as brisk as expected for EM, perhaps this will spur them on to develop the turbo more quickly, both the turbo vehicle and the retrofit kit. This would make it appealing to the sporty people and increase the market base. (I hope "market base" is the correct term here.)
