What To Do With The Gas?

[Elio Amazed]

OK, project 10 years or so into the future. What if EVs do take off like madness (probably will) and the vast majority of vehicles on the road are EVs instead of ICEs. Wouldn't it be logical thinking that most of the gas stations will fold? What if some of us hold-outs end up having to drive 20 miles or more to the next town just to fill up? I'm not talking about those that live in Goat's Beard Ridge and already have to drive 20 miles to fill up, I'm talking most of us. And what the heck will we do with all the petroleum that's left?

I'm thinking at that point the days of widespread free charging outlets will be over. I think the oil companies will take over the electrical generation and distribution industries. I also look for the price of electricity to go way up. Electricity won't be the cheap alternative, it'll be the monopoly. Someone's not only going to have to pay the stockholders, but they're also going to have to pay for vast improvements to the grid. Once they've become the norm, EVs may not be nearly as inexpensive to operate as they are now.

Not that wild of a thought. Consider that just 10 or so years ago, the internet was basically a free market. Site owners and advertisers dealt directly with each other. Now, Search Engines and advertising companies have stepped in and dictate what you can and cannot and what you will and will not do. They control the advertising, and that pretty much controls the net. The days of the little guy achieving the American Dream on the internet are just about over. You have to ask the internet middlemen for permission for just about anything and everything. And then you have to pay them. Or you just remain a bystander.

 

[Chaz]

The chargers will not be free.

 

[Muzhik]

But ... but ... but ... where will I go to get my Slurpee fix? or buy the gallon of milk I forgot to get at the grocery? Or exchange the propane tank for my grill (unless propane/natural gas also take off as transportation fuel sources).

The thing is, EV isn't going to take off like you (or a lot of other people) think it will. Every time I read or hear something about the growth of the EV market, I always write or call in with a simple question that leaves them stumped. All of their comments and statements are based on the belief that everyone lives in a house with a garage. I live in an apartment complex that was built almost 50 years ago. A dozen buildings built in roughly a square, but on a hillside so there are very few level places. AND NO GARAGES! Just a parking lot, no assigned spaces, first come first parked.

How, by all that is holy, are the two hundred or so people living in my apt. complex going to charge their EVs? And this is only one complex out of many, many apartments in my city. And my city is only one of how many in my state that have a lot of apartment dwellers?

Nope, the ICE is still going to be around and popular for quite a while.

 

[Elio Amazed]

But ... but ... but ... where will I go to get my Slurpee fix? or buy the gallon of milk I forgot to get at the grocery? Or exchange the propane tank for my grill (unless propane/natural gas also take off as transportation fuel sources).

The thing is, EV isn't going to take off like you (or a lot of other people) think it will. Every time I read or hear something about the growth of the EV market, I always write or call in with a simple question that leaves them stumped. All of their comments and statements are based on the belief that everyone lives in a house with a garage. I live in an apartment complex that was built almost 50 years ago. A dozen buildings built in roughly a square, but on a hillside so there are very few level places. AND NO GARAGES! Just a parking lot, no assigned spaces, first come first parked.

How, by all that is holy, are the two hundred or so people living in my apt. complex going to charge their EVs? And this is only one complex out of many, many apartments in my city. And my city is only one of how many in my state that have a lot of apartment dwellers?

Nope, the ICE is still going to be around and popular for quite a while.

Now you know as soon as the gas flow starts to subside the convenience stores will install pay-to-charge stations.

To address your last line... I don't think so.
People gave similar reasons (lack of infrastructure) for the continued use of the horse and buggy.
People believed the horse and buggy was still going to be in widespread use well into the late 20th century.
It seems they loved their horses as much as we (me included) love our ICEs.

I'm surprised that those people that you mentioned were stumped. Your answer isn't that hard to come up with...

You'll be driving the few models of ICE powered vehicles left on the market for a while.
When they're gone, or they become too cost prohibitive or undesirable to buy and drive...
The infrastructure issue becomes your dilemma. To be solved between you and your landlord.

I'm very confident that by then, there will be easy made-to-order solutions to that "dilemma".
Where there's an obvious need, people usually show up with dollar signs in their eyes.

 

[skychief]

I think there will come a day when EVs will outnumber ICE cars. But that will be waaaaay more than 10 years from now. There's 3 things that would change this prediction:

1) The price of oil goes through the roof. Like $150/bbl.

2) Battery tech makes a quantum leap so a EV battery will provide a 300+ mile range, and cost $1200 to replace it, instead of $5k or $10k.

3) The makers of EV's start selling new cars for $7300.

 

[Elio Amazed]

I think there will come a day when EVs will outnumber ICE cars. But that will be waaaaay more than 10 years from now. There's 3 things that would change this prediction:

1) The price of oil goes through the roof. Like $150/gal.

2) Battery tech makes a quantum leap so a EV battery will provide a 300+ mile range, and cost $1200 to replace it, instead of $5k or $10k.

3) The makers of EV's start selling new cars for $7300.

Again, with all due respect, similar things were said about the horse and carriage and the first automobiles.

I think the cost will come down over the next ten years, and keep a close eye on that range meter.

Who's selling new cars for $7300?
Let me know when that actually happens.

I'd like to buy one.

 

[Elio Amazed]

Another aspect of all this that no-one has mentioned yet is the Federally mandated mpg requirements.
It's been tough enough to get the 1300lb. aerodynamic Elio anywhere near 84mpg.

The US auto industry and the imports know that it's next to impossible to meet those requirements.
That is, all the way through 2025 with competitively priced 3500+lb ICE powered cars.

And if they found that they could.... How's 0-60mph in 11.5 seconds sound to those who still want to drive a new ICE 4-wheeler in 2025?

BTW... I don't have a garage... I don't plan on building one... I'm buying an EV... and I don't see a problem with that.

.

 

[johnsnownw]

But ... but ... but ... where will I go to get my Slurpee fix? or buy the gallon of milk I forgot to get at the grocery? Or exchange the propane tank for my grill (unless propane/natural gas also take off as transportation fuel sources).

The thing is, EV isn't going to take off like you (or a lot of other people) think it will. Every time I read or hear something about the growth of the EV market, I always write or call in with a simple question that leaves them stumped. All of their comments and statements are based on the belief that everyone lives in a house with a garage. I live in an apartment complex that was built almost 50 years ago. A dozen buildings built in roughly a square, but on a hillside so there are very few level places. AND NO GARAGES! Just a parking lot, no assigned spaces, first come first parked.

How, by all that is holy, are the two hundred or so people living in my apt. complex going to charge their EVs? And this is only one complex out of many, many apartments in my city. And my city is only one of how many in my state that have a lot of apartment dwellers?

Nope, the ICE is still going to be around and popular for quite a while.

ICE is going to be around for a LONG time. However, consider that there are roughly 84 million households in the US with access to home charging. While there are indeed many multi-dwelling housing residents...there are A LOT of people that can make EVs work. It's also true that many people living in multi-dwelling properties often take mass-transit, use car sharing, etc...so they don't own a vehicle and therefore the statistics alone don't necessarily give an accurate representation.

Another avenue for charging is work place charging, perhaps you work in a place where that could be a possibility? Many companies are doing this on the West Coast, and it seems to be working rather well.

Then there are many companies building out charging infrastructure that can charge to 300 miles in about an hour, and this time is only going to get shorter. Also the way they work, which is to taper as the battery charges, a Tesla can charge a vehicle to 140 miles in roughly 20 minutes.

BEVs aren't currently able to cover the needs of everyone, but they can do so for many...and the pool will only grow in the future.

 

[larryboy]

There are already brown-outs in some places during the summer. Where is the extra power generating capacity going to come from? I can see major problems when millions of Americans come home from work on a hot August afternoon and plug in their EV's and go in and crank up the AC. There is a device on my AC that allows the power company to shut off the compressor for a few minutes during peak load. I have had that installed for two summers and cannot tell if and when it shuts off. The fan continues to run and the shut off is short duration. That technology will have to be a part of any large adoption of EV's

 

[WilliamH]

There are already brown-outs in some places during the summer. Where is the extra power generating capacity going to come from? I can see major problems when millions of Americans come home from work on a hot August afternoon and plug in their EV's and go in and crank up the AC. There is a device on my AC that allows the power company to shut off the compressor for a few minutes during peak load. I have had that installed for two summers and cannot tell if and when it shuts off. The fan continues to run and the shut off is short duration. That technology will have to be a part of any large adoption of EV's

Or maybe people will wake up and realize that climate change has at least as much or maybe more to do with "Milankovitch Cycles" than it has to do with carbon credits and politics.