Probability Of Success Of Investment Concerning Timing Of Various Down Payment Options.

[Autoxdriver]

I recently sold my last motorcycle. Why? Because while I loved riding, I never actually rode. Why not? Because the most obvious time to ride (to work and back) makes riding suck. In the winter it's cold as hell in the morning but beautiful in the afternoon. In the summer it's beautiful in the morning but miserably hot during the afternoon. In other words, I quit riding because the weather was always utter crap for 50% of my daily ride and I just decided that the 50% that was nice wasn't worth the 50% that sucked ass. But along comes Elio....

Winter mornings? Roll up the windows. Turn on the heater. Ah.....
Winter afternoons? Roll down the windows, stick an arm out *each* window. Ah.... Not *quite* the same as riding a motorcycle, but damned close.
Summer mornings? Same as winter afternoons. Sweet!
Summer afternoons? Roll up windows and turn on the AC. Nice...

Thus, the 50% of my riding that sucked should no longer suck.

Oh, and I've never felt the wind through my hair while riding a motorcycle. They're called helmets. I *have* however, enjoyed the heck out of that experience while driving/riding in my wife's convertible. Driving with the top down is *almost* as much fun as riding. I imagine an Elio will be closer to riding than a roadster, but with all the same comfort.... Which means it will be awesome.

I think driving your wife's convertible will be closer to a bike than driving the Elio, but I guess its all in how you define it. If having a seat behind instead of next to you does it for you then so be it.

 

[Daniel Venzke]

When I bought in ($250 nonrefundable) last year I envisioned being pretty high on the 'list'. Now, with reservations approaching 13K and gaining momentum every week, I just may want to up my deposit, eh?

 

[Inigo93]

I don't see why I would consider putting $100 all in today, Rather than a $1000 All-IN in the future.

It dawns on me that in my previous post in this thread I didn't answer the question.

For me it's a balance.... How much money do I want to lose if Elio fails vs. the knowledge that even if they succeed there will come a time when they end the "All-In" program. Looking at the two extremes... I go all in for $1k and Elio fails. I'm out $1k. On the other end of the spectrum I hold on to my money awaiting the day I'm certain that Elio will succeed. But what if Elio hits that magic point without any obvious signs to the public? At that point there's no longer any reason for them to offer the benefits of "All In." BANG! Not only did I not get a place in line, but I don't get a bonus for spending some money a bit early.

To balance those two positions... I got in for $100. If it becomes clear that Elio will happen, I will upgrade to $1k. But if Elio ends the "All In" program without warning (and before I've upgraded), at least I still am in line ahead of the general public.

 

[Jim H]

One of the reasons Elio likes the all-in category is that those of us who paid that amount are far more likely committed to buying an Elio because we have "skin in the game". We have made a firm commitment to Elio and only get our return on investment when we buy. Those that make refundable deposits can withdraw them at any time to protect their investment and provide no financial guarantee to Elio.

 

[Charles]

I think driving your wife's convertible will be closer to a bike than driving the Elio, but I guess its all in how you define it. If having a seat behind instead of next to you does it for you then so be it.

Most die hard 'motorcycle enthusiasts' are probably not trading in their rides for Elio. They probably wouldn't 'trade' their motorcycle for an Elio. But there are a portion of motorcycle riders that are primarily riding to save on fuel.

Me: I started riding for fun, and after a couple years quickly switched to riding for economy. I really enjoyed my significant other's GS500F and ended up getting one for myself. A GS has the plastics, looks and handling of a motorcycle, but the economy of a scooter. (No way I would ride a scooter) I agree with the other poster that stated motorcycles have a 50% problem with commuting. Also my neck and back problems didn't help.

This clearly isn't going to appeal to all motorcyclists, but I could see this appealing to a fair portion of them.
Because of the ability for this to entirely replace a car it's much more economical (Only insure one vehicle).

But overall I agree this isn't a motorcycle replacement. It's an alternative.

 

[Charles]

It dawns on me that in my previous post in this thread I didn't answer the question.

For me it's a balance....
To balance those two positions... I got in for $100. If it becomes clear that Elio will happen, I will upgrade to $1k. But if Elio ends the "All In" program without warning (and before I've upgraded), at least I still am in line ahead of the general public.

I see several people with with $100 all-Ins planning to upgrade to $1000 later. I personally see this as the worst of both worlds:

1. I could get the same result with none of the initial risk. I.e. You decide to go $1000 all-in in 6 months. that same day I decide to do the same. I get my car the same time as you, but I didn't take the initial risk you did.

2. Because you 'have skin in the game." it could make you more likely to upgrade if you shouldn't. I.e. the company is still questionable in 6 months, but clearly looking like it will produce. It might be temping to go ahead and upgrade hoping to get a car. (Not everyone thinks this way but many do. I.e. the idea of something going to waste is a very strong psychological effect. The instinct of most people is to try and recover a "sunk cost".

- Everyone has their right to do as they please though. I realize many of these are sorta like a 'donation'. I.e. Hoping to help the companies chance of success.

*I disagree with the concept that all-in to show the company or banks that you are serious in following through with the purchase. a $1000 refundable deposit is over 14% of the final price. refundable or not I can't imagine someone putting that up without the intent of following through. (I.e. the major things I see causing someone to back out are: dissatisfied with final product, lack of patience, and personal financial reasons) Amount is extremely important in these decisions. For example I'd have a lot more faith in a $1000 refundable deposit than I would a $1 all in deposit. But it is true The "skin in the game" / "sunk cost" does have the tendency to feel more committed. In the end the bank will choose how to weigh each of these.
By the way, every deposit does cause 'skin in the game' so to speak. If the time frame was 2 years the $1000 deposit would forgo $100 in lost interest at simple interest rate of 5%. (This makes a good argument for the $100 all-in option, over a $1000 refundable).

Just curious anyone do a $250 or $500 all-in? I'd love to hear the reasoning. I really have trouble wrapping my mind around the decision behind either of those.

 

[zelio]

Most die hard 'motorcycle enthusiasts' are probably not trading in their rides for Elio. They probably wouldn't 'trade' their motorcycle for an Elio. But there are a portion of motorcycle riders that are primarily riding to save on fuel.

Me: I started riding for fun, and after a couple years quickly switched to riding for economy. I really enjoyed my significant other's GS500F and ended up getting one for myself. A GS has the plastics, looks and handling of a motorcycle, but the economy of a scooter. (No way I would ride a scooter) I agree with the other poster that stated motorcycles have a 50% problem with commuting. Also my neck and back problems didn't help.

This clearly isn't going to appeal to all motorcyclists, but I could see this appealing to a fair portion of them.
Because of the ability for this to entirely replace a car it's much more economical (Only insure one vehicle).

But overall I agree this isn't a motorcycle replacement. It's an alternative.

Finances! Finances! Finances! Not everyone has $1000 to buy in. I am $100 all in but am already saving for the next step up to $500 (Elio doesn't allow the mid step to $250). Once I am at $500 I will start accumulating again to get up to $1000. I feel doing it this way is helping me in two ways. 1. I am in the top 4 categories of reservationist - albeit the 4th level. 2. I am getting used to "making payments" after being totally debt free for 9 years. At 72 and on fixed low income this is a huge step for me but I love this car and I want one. Therefore I am willing to make other sacrifices to get it. My current car is a 1999 Toyota Camry with almost 214,000 miles on it. The Elio will be my only car er autocycle? whatever! :-) Z

 

[Joshua Caldwell]

Reasoning: setting aside a little money every month for the car and reducing the temptation to spend on something else by increasing your all-in.

I'm planning on putting my contract signing bonus that I get in 2 weeks towards this, and the rest going into a savings account dedicated to getting the Elio. I'm planning on $10k after fees and options.

My only concern is whether my existing car will crap out before the Elio is manufactured, I already put $1600 in repairs into it last year + normal maintenance on top of that. Thus far, I have encountered every single known issue with my model.

 

[Jim H]

I see several people with with $100 all-Ins planning to upgrade to $1000 later. I personally see this as the worst of both worlds:

1. I could get the same result with none of the initial risk. I.e. You decide to go $1000 all-in in 6 months. that same day I decide to do the same. I get my car the same time as you, but I didn't take the initial risk you did.

2. Because you 'have skin in the game." it could make you more likely to upgrade if you shouldn't. I.e. the company is still questionable in 6 months, but clearly looking like it will produce. It might be temping to go ahead and upgrade hoping to get a car. (Not everyone thinks this way but many do. I.e. the idea of something going to waste is a very strong psychological effect. The instinct of most people is to try and recover a "sunk cost".

- Everyone has their right to do as they please though. I realize many of these are sorta like a 'donation'. I.e. Hoping to help the companies chance of success.

*I disagree with the concept that all-in to show the company or banks that you are serious in following through with the purchase. a $1000 refundable deposit is over 14% of the final price. refundable or not I can't imagine someone putting that up without the intent of following through. (I.e. the major things I see causing someone to back out are: dissatisfied with final product, lack of patience, and personal financial reasons) Amount is extremely important in these decisions. For example I'd have a lot more faith in a $1000 refundable deposit than I would a $1 all in deposit. But it is true The "skin in the game" / "sunk cost" does have the tendency to feel more committed. In the end the bank will choose how to weigh each of these.
By the way, every deposit does cause 'skin in the game' so to speak. If the time frame was 2 years the $1000 deposit would forgo $100 in lost interest at simple interest rate of 5%. (This makes a good argument for the $100 all-in option, over a $1000 refundable).

Just curious anyone do a $250 or $500 all-in? I'd love to hear the reasoning. I really have trouble wrapping my mind around the decision behind either of those.

I went in at the $100 level in Oct 2013' advanced to the $500 level in February 2014, and finally to $1000 in March 2014. One of the reasons was the number of new people paying the $1000 level kept moving me farther down the distribution line and I want mine as soon as possible. I seriously doubt that you will get your Elio the same time as those who went all in. It may be shortly after but with the rapidly increasing numbers of all-ins I believe your delivery will be significantly delayed.
I realize everyone's finances are different and there are many factors that impact their priorities. My choice was to "invest" my $1000 in Elio. Like all investments there is no guaranteed return but like any other investment I have confidence in the company.

 

[Jim H]

Finances! Finances! Finances! Not everyone has $1000 to buy in. I am $100 all in but am already saving for the next step up to $500 (Elio doesn't allow the mid step to $250). Once I am at $500 I will start accumulating again to get up to $1000. I feel doing it this way is helping me in two ways. 1. I am in the top 4 categories of reservationist - albeit the 4th level. 2. I am getting used to "making payments" after being totally debt free for 9 years. At 72 and on fixed low income this is a huge step for me but I love this car and I want one. Therefore I am willing to make other sacrifices to get it. My current car is a 1999 Toyota Camry with almost 214,000 miles on it. The Elio will be my only car er autocycle? whatever! Z

I started at the $100 level and over time reached the $1000 mark. Each time you aDvance to the next level you get closer to your dream.