Devilstower
Elio Aficionado
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2014
- Messages
- 96
- Reaction score
- 291
Warning: lost and somewhat despairing post
When I look at what Elio is promising, I feel like it's perfectly possible to hit the 5-star safety rating. After all, the kind of frame-cell they're proposing has a good history in racing and has been demonstrated to provide good protection with low weight. The ever-changing details of the NHTSA and insurance industry testing make it perfectly possible that Elio might turn out to be vulnerable from some unexpected angle and not get an actual 5-star rating when the production vehicles are actually tested, but I'm willing to bet (in fact, I have -- in the form of putting my deposit in) that they can build a safe vehicle that will see me through a 60 mile commute each day.
I feel like they can hit the mileage -- though this is a tougher task -- with the combination of reduced drag, light weight, and an engine tuned for miles over speed. Hey, I got more than 50 mpg in an actual Geo Metro once upon a time, and averaged 51mpg over a period of 7 years with a Prius, both of which are much heavier vehicles with a much higher Cd than I expect from the production Elio. Again, the government test cycle isn't kind to every vehicle, but I'd be very surprised if I couldn't consistently run up numbers of 80mpg in a vehicle like the one Elio is promising.
Which leaves me with just one concern. I honestly can't see how they can hit the $6800 price.
Yes, I know they're buying essentially "off the shelf" components were possible, and yes I know that the cost to the manufacturer is considerably lower than what the retail price of something like an engine, tires, etc runs to the consumer. However, looking at just the basic components, I can't see any margin in the cost. In fact, without expectations of near zero assembly, overhead and support and without assumption of massive quantity discounts, I can't see how the Elio can be built without taking a hit on every sale. Heck, just OEM cost on the airbags would eat something like 10% of the retail price. A Piaggio MP3 3-wheeled scooter with a 500cc engine sells $2k more without an enclosure, without airbags, without air conditioning, without... well, you get my drift. And while I know that the cost of the scooter reflects markup for dealers, shouldn't the Elio pricing reflect at least something of the cost needed to establish their direct-dealerships?
I know that many feel that the number being quoted to us for reservations represents a considerable discount over the ultimate walk-up price. Maybe, but if so, that seems like a strange business model. It means that each of the reservations ticked up actually means a potential loss. Not just that, it would mean that reservations are not indicative of sales potential down the road. Neither of these would seem to be a great lure to investors.
Personally, I'd be willing to pay considerably more (hey, I stayed signed up for an Aptera even as it moved above $20k, I'd certainly go beyond $10k for an Elio) but I know there are some here, perhaps many, who would not. I'd have been much happier if Elio had started this with the announcement that the first generation models were going to be $15k, but they expected to be able to lower the price in the future. I'd have still had my name on the list, along with an assuredly reduced set of early-adopters. But at least each of those names on the list would represent profit.
That $6800 price worries me, if only because of everything Elio is touting, it seems by far the most difficult to achieve.
When I look at what Elio is promising, I feel like it's perfectly possible to hit the 5-star safety rating. After all, the kind of frame-cell they're proposing has a good history in racing and has been demonstrated to provide good protection with low weight. The ever-changing details of the NHTSA and insurance industry testing make it perfectly possible that Elio might turn out to be vulnerable from some unexpected angle and not get an actual 5-star rating when the production vehicles are actually tested, but I'm willing to bet (in fact, I have -- in the form of putting my deposit in) that they can build a safe vehicle that will see me through a 60 mile commute each day.
I feel like they can hit the mileage -- though this is a tougher task -- with the combination of reduced drag, light weight, and an engine tuned for miles over speed. Hey, I got more than 50 mpg in an actual Geo Metro once upon a time, and averaged 51mpg over a period of 7 years with a Prius, both of which are much heavier vehicles with a much higher Cd than I expect from the production Elio. Again, the government test cycle isn't kind to every vehicle, but I'd be very surprised if I couldn't consistently run up numbers of 80mpg in a vehicle like the one Elio is promising.
Which leaves me with just one concern. I honestly can't see how they can hit the $6800 price.
Yes, I know they're buying essentially "off the shelf" components were possible, and yes I know that the cost to the manufacturer is considerably lower than what the retail price of something like an engine, tires, etc runs to the consumer. However, looking at just the basic components, I can't see any margin in the cost. In fact, without expectations of near zero assembly, overhead and support and without assumption of massive quantity discounts, I can't see how the Elio can be built without taking a hit on every sale. Heck, just OEM cost on the airbags would eat something like 10% of the retail price. A Piaggio MP3 3-wheeled scooter with a 500cc engine sells $2k more without an enclosure, without airbags, without air conditioning, without... well, you get my drift. And while I know that the cost of the scooter reflects markup for dealers, shouldn't the Elio pricing reflect at least something of the cost needed to establish their direct-dealerships?
I know that many feel that the number being quoted to us for reservations represents a considerable discount over the ultimate walk-up price. Maybe, but if so, that seems like a strange business model. It means that each of the reservations ticked up actually means a potential loss. Not just that, it would mean that reservations are not indicative of sales potential down the road. Neither of these would seem to be a great lure to investors.
Personally, I'd be willing to pay considerably more (hey, I stayed signed up for an Aptera even as it moved above $20k, I'd certainly go beyond $10k for an Elio) but I know there are some here, perhaps many, who would not. I'd have been much happier if Elio had started this with the announcement that the first generation models were going to be $15k, but they expected to be able to lower the price in the future. I'd have still had my name on the list, along with an assuredly reduced set of early-adopters. But at least each of those names on the list would represent profit.
That $6800 price worries me, if only because of everything Elio is touting, it seems by far the most difficult to achieve.