Elio, Dept Of Energy Funding And Political Action

[Travelbuzz1]

with incentives for early birds (some over 1k) itll be a streatch to net 2k even with accessories as EM has mentioned a 10% above costs

Elio has a 20% minimum over cost on their options and this can rise depending on labor costs into installing them.

 

[Neal]

Wondering how many of the first wave of reservation folks like us are still waiting and hoping that Paul can pull this off.
Dusty & Linda #7770

Still here. Not as long as some others 1,798 days

 

[Ty]

Took my wife out for New Years and spent $100 same as my Elio investment .Sorry but my wife was the better investment .

... but at least the Elio isn't continually costing you!

 

[RSchneider]

Elio has a 20% minimum over cost on their options and this can rise depending on labor costs into installing them.

Elio is planning on an average selling price of $10,769 for the first 65K reservations ($700M/65K). So, that means that for the first 22K that locked in at $7K, and got a 50% bonus and 36K that locked in at $7.3K and got a 50% bonus. So, the profit margin on the first 65K with the bonus will average out to a pretty good profit for Elio motors and when it gets to the $7450 targeted price, that $10,769 will even go up to the potential average price of $11K. That's pretty good for Elio and should be a great incentive for investors as the $7450 is only there for the base model that barely anyone will ever buy (just like they do with regular cars). Since they sell factory direct to the consumer, no discounting and it'll just be that set profit margin. Pretty much like a Tesla.

Paul Elio stating 65K reservations and $700M in sales (at the 8:27 mark):

Page 36 lists the $7K and $7.3K locked in reservationists (I rounded the numbers):
https://ir.eliomotors.com/all-sec-filings#document-356-0001214659-17-005165

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Took my wife out for New Years and spent $100 same as my Elio investment .Sorry but my wife was the better investment .

ya never know, the wife could cost you much more than an Elio, just ask her attorney

 

[Elio Amazed]

Elio is planning on an average selling price of $10,769 for the first 65K reservations ($700M/65K). So, that means that for the first 22K that locked in at $7K, and got a 50% bonus and 36K that locked in at $7.3K and got a 50% bonus. So, the profit margin on the first 65K with the bonus will average out to a pretty good profit for Elio motors and when it gets to the $7450 targeted price, that $10,769 will even go up to the potential average price of $11K. That's pretty good for Elio and should be a great incentive for investors as the $7450 is only there for the base model that barely anyone will ever buy (just like they do with regular cars). Since they sell factory direct to the consumer, no discounting and it'll just be that set profit margin. Pretty much like a Tesla.

Paul Elio stating 65K reservations and $700M in sales (at the 8:27 mark):

Page 36 lists the $7K and $7.3K locked in reservationists (I rounded the numbers):
https://ir.eliomotors.com/all-sec-filings#document-356-0001214659-17-005165

Your logic is flawed. Let's take my example.
(#1) I'm $1000 all in. My bonus is $500 + $250 = $750.
They've already spent my $1000. So they are only going to get $5250 from me at this point for my Elio.
I'll have the base stock standard tranny version. I want cruise but they said that will be included.
According to what they've said, It will take them $6,450 to make an Elio.
Which means they will LOSE $1200 by fulfilling my order.

I believe there will be quite a few early adopters, like me, that will order their Elio stock or close to stock.
After all, Elio themselves have marketed this as an "and" vehicle for the working class and economically challenged.

So I think your estimates for the "profit" for the first 65,000 are very skewed.
Keep in mind that if you're saying they'll (lucky to break even IMO) make a small "profit" off of the 1st 65k...
It in no way will be enough to put a dent in the $250M debt they will have incurred to simply push the start button.
At best it may pay the interest that accumulates during the time it takes to build the 65k.

(#2) Elio Motors has said they anticipate a 20% markup on accessories and options.
$10,769 minus $7450 = $3319 x 20% = $663.80. So, add the $1000 projected margin per stock unit.
$1663. And that's if they're right about the average Elio going out the door dressed for a price of $10,769
That AVERAGE of $10,769 sounds pretty overly optimistic to me.
Even if that projection is accurate $1663.80 doesn't sound like an impressive margin.
It's all fun and games on paper until someone gets hurt. Murphy has a habit of crashing the party.

 

[slinches]

1663.80*65k = $108,147,000
1663.80*125k = $207,975,000
1663.80*250k = $415,950,000

~15% margin doesn't seem that bad to me. They can recoup the startup costs in the first couple of years of production. I personally think the sales numbers can be sustained at least at the 125k mark (comparable sales to a compact like the Nissan Versa), which means $200M in annual profit on 1.4 billion in sales.

 

[Sega]

The only numbers that are important are the ones that involve how much money elio has NOW....which is very little.

 

[slinches]

How much money Elio has now or can have in the immediate future is dependent on how much the people with money to invest think Elio can make in the long term. So, a discussion of the potential profitability is relevant.

 

[Elio Amazed]

1663.80*65k = $108,147,000
1663.80*125k = $207,975,000
1663.80*250k = $415,950,000

~15% margin doesn't seem that bad to me. They can recoup the startup costs in the first couple of years of production. I personally think the sales numbers can be sustained at least at the 125k mark (comparable sales to a compact like the Nissan Versa), which means $200M in annual profit on 1.4 billion in sales.

So, considering my conservative projection of the 1st 65k being close to a $ wash...
And your optimistic projection of two years maintained at 125k premium units per year...
It'll be a somewhat optimistic 3 years before EM sees a black balance on the scorecard...
Because, with all that's involved, I believe that ramping to more than 65k/yr will take a year.

And so the first truly positive return the investors will see will start at unit #315,000.
How many other vehicles continued to sell in large numbers after #315,000?

Add in the 76 weeks after initial investment and an investor is looking at 4 and 1/2 years of risk...
Before they break even and start to earn any kind of positive return on their investment.

.