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Elio, Dept Of Energy Funding And Political Action

Sega

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How much money Elio has now or can have in the immediate future is dependent on how much the people with money to invest think Elio can make in the long term. So, a discussion of the potential profitability is relevant.

I think those numbers have been ran several times by the people with money. Also, as some have stated here that Paul wants to keep control....If, if that's the case, those people with money will not invest large sums into this company. It's going on 10 years now of them trying to get the funding.
 

Sega

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And idk where you guys are getting your sales numbers. They seem optimistic.

Look at Fiat. They have a big marketing campaign and funding behind them. They have sold around 140k Fiat's in the U.S. since 2014.
http://fcauthority.com/fiat-chrysle...automobiles-sales-numbers/fiat-sales-numbers/

I think you guys are being way optimistic with your numbers for a brand new car. No, the fiat isn't a perfect comparison, but you guys are nuts with your numbers. Gas is cheap right now and not as many people are looking for an EXTRA car that they have to worry about maintenance on, insurance, plates, etc. I think the boat passed. I think demand for this car would be directly related to gas prices.

Also, many many people put a value on the comfort of a car. This car will be lagging in that department.

I absolutely think a cheap car like this would be great for most people, but people are more likely to buy the vehicle they want, not the vehicle they need.
 

Elio Amazed

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And idk where you guys are getting your sales numbers. They seem optimistic.

Look at Fiat. They have a big marketing campaign and funding behind them. They have sold around 140k Fiat's in the U.S. since 2014.
http://fcauthority.com/fiat-chrysle...automobiles-sales-numbers/fiat-sales-numbers/

I think you guys are being way optimistic with your numbers for a brand new car. No, the fiat isn't a perfect comparison, but you guys are nuts with your numbers. Gas is cheap right now and not as many people are looking for an EXTRA car that they have to worry about maintenance on, insurance, plates, etc. I think the boat passed. I think demand for this car would be directly related to gas prices.

Also, many many people put a value on the comfort of a car. This car will be lagging in that department.

I absolutely think a cheap car like this would be great for most people, but people are more likely to buy the vehicle they want, not the vehicle they need.
I just filled both Caravans up this afternoon in Western PA. $2.15 a gallon.
 

RSchneider

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And idk where you guys are getting your sales numbers. They seem optimistic.

Look at Fiat. They have a big marketing campaign and funding behind them. They have sold around 140k Fiat's in the U.S. since 2014.
http://fcauthority.com/fiat-chrysle...automobiles-sales-numbers/fiat-sales-numbers/

I think you guys are being way optimistic with your numbers for a brand new car. No, the fiat isn't a perfect comparison, but you guys are nuts with your numbers. Gas is cheap right now and not as many people are looking for an EXTRA car that they have to worry about maintenance on, insurance, plates, etc. I think the boat passed. I think demand for this car would be directly related to gas prices.

Also, many many people put a value on the comfort of a car. This car will be lagging in that department.

I absolutely think a cheap car like this would be great for most people, but people are more likely to buy the vehicle they want, not the vehicle they need.
I think you are right. People don't necessarily buy what they need because if they did, they would do two things:

1. Keep their car until it's too expensive to keep going.
2. Buy the cheapest no frills car they can buy which has a trunk and can hold 4 people (i.e. Nissan Versa).
3. Use public transportation when available and not put gas, wear and tear on their car.

As we all know, very few people do that. Fiat has sold a grand total of 190K 500's from 2011 to today. In 2018, they sold 5.4K of them when in 2012 they sold 47K. The Versa had an all time high of 144K in 2015 and in 2018, 75K. So people right now are not buying cheap cars that make sense as to what they should buy. With the national average for regular at $2.25 yesterday, people are not going to go the efficient route in large numbers. Maybe that's why an electric Elio might get people interested.
 

Mel

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I've never been accused of being average in any respect, but electric just would not work for me. My commute is not cut and dried. I have to go to where the aircraft is. Often it is several hundred miles each way.
 

Ty

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So, considering my conservative projection of the 1st 65k being close to a $ wash...
And your optimistic projection of two years maintained at 125k premium units per year...
It'll be a somewhat optimistic 3 years before EM sees a black balance on the scorecard...
Because, with all that's involved, I believe that ramping to more than 65k/yr will take a year.

And so the first truly positive return the investors will see will start at unit #315,000.
How many other vehicles continued to sell in large numbers after #315,000?

Add in the 76 weeks after initial investment and an investor is looking at 4 and 1/2 years of risk...
Before they break even and start to earn any kind of positive return on their investment.

.
Tesla took so long to ramp up production because they were doing something nobody else has had to do: Produce batteries in great quantities in a factory that didn't even exist. Elio will be using a factory that can produce a car every 54 seconds. The processes are well known and not overly automated. The individual work stations are relatively simple and require little training to operate. The parts for the car are, for the most part, either already in production or can be with minimal transition time. The powertrain is even going to be provided by _______. Now, Elio will have some growing pains and logistic issues but those will be nothing like the challenges Tesla faces.

Some of the processes at the plant can't be done with a lot of down-time between vehicles. Think about paint or windshield adhesive for examples. You can't let too much time pass between vehicles or you'll have to do a lot more work to keep the machines from clogging up.

Anyway, I, the all knowing, predict that once Elio builds one vehicle on the line in Shreveport, it'll be one month before you see 250 vehicles for a shingle shift and then they'll be at full-rate, 533 per shift by the end of the second month.

533 x 5 = 2,665 per week
2,665 per week x 20 weeks = 53,300 produced within the 6 months production (I didn't count the first 8 weeks because their ramp up to full-rate production would be difficult to calculate with all the unknowns. Heck, at their current rate of production, they'll produce zero their first year.)

They would most likely add a second shift (if necessary--- completely demand dependent) as soon as they get the kinks out of the logistics of moving that many vehicles to distribution near the stores.

So, the rest of that year,
2,665 x 24 weeks x 2 shifts = 127,920
Add up the whole first year's production and you get 127,920 + 53,300 = 181,220

After that, running two shifts will get you 266,500 units produced per year with 2 weeks off for plant update/work break.
Now, you've read this far and are saying "Bull crap. That's hypothetical, wishful thinking, crap". Remember this: GM set up the plant to produce one vehicle every 54 seconds and they managed to do just that through several model changes. Think of Elio as just the next model change and it makes sense that the plant is still capable of those numbers and therefore Elio can do the same.

Fewer parts, smaller footprint, simple manufacturing, drivetrain provided by known supplier... Go Elio!
 

Ty

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And idk where you guys are getting your sales numbers. They seem optimistic.

Look at Fiat. They have a big marketing campaign and funding behind them. They have sold around 140k Fiat's in the U.S. since 2014.
http://fcauthority.com/fiat-chrysle...automobiles-sales-numbers/fiat-sales-numbers/

I think you guys are being way optimistic with your numbers for a brand new car. No, the fiat isn't a perfect comparison, but you guys are nuts with your numbers. Gas is cheap right now and not as many people are looking for an EXTRA car that they have to worry about maintenance on, insurance, plates, etc. I think the boat passed. I think demand for this car would be directly related to gas prices.

Also, many many people put a value on the comfort of a car. This car will be lagging in that department.

I absolutely think a cheap car like this would be great for most people, but people are more likely to buy the vehicle they want, not the vehicle they need.

Good point. People buy what they want without thinking about what is BEST for their current situation. We have become a nation of "How much can I afford?" vs. "How much do I need?"
 

Elio Amazed

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Tesla took so long to ramp up production because they were doing something nobody else has had to do: Produce batteries in great quantities in a factory that didn't even exist. Elio will be using a factory that can produce a car every 54 seconds. The processes are well known and not overly automated. The individual work stations are relatively simple and require little training to operate. The parts for the car are, for the most part, either already in production or can be with minimal transition time. The powertrain is even going to be provided by _______. Now, Elio will have some growing pains and logistic issues but those will be nothing like the challenges Tesla faces.

Some of the processes at the plant can't be done with a lot of down-time between vehicles. Think about paint or windshield adhesive for examples. You can't let too much time pass between vehicles or you'll have to do a lot more work to keep the machines from clogging up.

Anyway, I, the all knowing, predict that once Elio builds one vehicle on the line in Shreveport, it'll be one month before you see 250 vehicles for a shingle shift and then they'll be at full-rate, 533 per shift by the end of the second month.

533 x 5 = 2,665 per week
2,665 per week x 20 weeks = 53,300 produced within the 6 months production (I didn't count the first 8 weeks because their ramp up to full-rate production would be difficult to calculate with all the unknowns. Heck, at their current rate of production, they'll produce zero their first year.)

They would most likely add a second shift (if necessary--- completely demand dependent) as soon as they get the kinks out of the logistics of moving that many vehicles to distribution near the stores.

So, the rest of that year,
2,665 x 24 weeks x 2 shifts = 127,920
Add up the whole first year's production and you get 127,920 + 53,300 = 181,220

After that, running two shifts will get you 266,500 units produced per year with 2 weeks off for plant update/work break.
Now, you've read this far and are saying "Bull crap. That's hypothetical, wishful thinking, crap". Remember this: GM set up the plant to produce one vehicle every 54 seconds and they managed to do just that through several model changes. Think of Elio as just the next model change and it makes sense that the plant is still capable of those numbers and therefore Elio can do the same.

Fewer parts, smaller footprint, simple manufacturing, drivetrain provided by known supplier... Go Elio!
In a perfect world. I certainly hope so. There are things I could do with my $5250 balance Elio @ ~84mphthat I can't do with my Dodge Caravans.

However, given EMs track record of a complete ninth inning 180 on the frame and body, a tremendous amount of resources spent on apparently a dead end of an engine, and very little to show for $140M and years wasted, my faith in them being capable of making a complicated perfect world tick with absolute precision is just tainted by reality. Again, it looks great on paper, but it looked great on paper ten years ago.
 
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