Send Email To Dop To Show Support For Elio Motors Loan.

[AriLea]

...if it isn't a go in 2016 I think so many people will bail on them that the entire project will fail......

Not too likely. The first year production rate seems to only supply the reservations and committed fleet sales for that year. Most of us have encountered a higher rate of those who want it on a purely economic basis who would not put money down, but would buy it now if they could take delivery inside of 60days or so. There could be as high as 10 of those for each reservation holder.

So it's possible that even if all reservists bailed out, everything projected would still be sold. And since they'll advance delivery to those who do take their reserved Elio's, the left-overs will show up near the end of the year, giving EM plenty of time to adjust their marketing plans.

The fact of 40k+ reservations pretty well guarantees buyers are available at that rate.

 

[grampi]

Not too likely. The first year production rate seems to only supply the reservations and committed fleet sales for that year. Most of us have encountered a higher rate of those who want it on a purely economic basis who would not put money down, but would buy it now if they could take delivery inside of 60days or so. There could be as high as 10 of those for each reservation holder.

So it's possible that even if all reservists bailed out, everything projected would still be sold. And since they'll advance delivery to those who do take their reserved Elio's, the left-overs will show up near the end of the year, giving EM plenty of time to adjust their marketing plans.

The fact of 40k+ reservations pretty well guarantees buyers are available at that rate.

I think we're both looking at this a little differently...the reason I think another pushback would sink the project is because it would destroy any faith people have that this will be a successful venture...there can only be so many times you can pull the rug out from under people before they start to bail...

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Well for some number approx 13k and all the other "all ins" there isn't a bale, unless you walk away or sell your option.
For every "walk away", EM will benefit from the incentive savings
For folks that have been around it seems like forever.
For folks just getting in, now hearing 1-2 Q of 2016, is neither that long await, or tainted by the past-
They see, unlike many of us who waited, a secure facility, engine running, options and the top shelf companies selling them, and still get the 50% incentives. It seems so much less of a risk, then when I came in Aug 2014.
They have yet to experience a delay.

 

[AriLea]

I think we're both looking at this a little differently...the reason I think another pushback would sink the project is because it would destroy any faith people have that this will be a successful venture...there can only be so many times you can pull the rug out from under people before they start to bail...

Well, it's a point. But after production, when the car is existing in your face, it's easier to gain it back. So long as it operates well and is loved by current owners, that level of sales should be no problem.
You just have to look at the entry of the VW bug and the Smart to model a expectation.
Both were surprise changes to the market, with plenty of distracting issues the public was concerned about.

 

[RUCRAYZE]

Well, it's a point. But after production, when the car is existing in your face, it's easier to gain it back. So long as it operates well and is loved by current owners, that level of sales should be no problem.
You just have to look at the entry of the VW bug and the Smart to model a expectation.
Both were surprise changes to the market, with plenty of distracting issues the public was concerned about.

I think the VW and Smart were in production and available in Europe, long before American sales, so at the time there was more consumers aware and possibly concerned.
With EM the" public" will witness the roll-out, reinforced by the sell-out of the first (plug in a number) units.
With that success and accompanying publicity, and with owner/road testing satisfaction, all concerns will be reduced by the advanced reservationists and future sales.
IF it happens, there should orders aplenty, with sales outlets (24hr order delivery), proven safety and warrantee satisfaction.

 

[AriLea]

I think the VW and Smart were in production and available in Europe, long before American sales, so at the time there was more consumers aware and possibly concerned.
With EM the" public" will witness the roll-out, reinforced by the sell-out of the first (plug in a number) units.
With that success and accompanying publicity, and with owner/road testing satisfaction, all concerns will be reduced by the advanced reservationists and future sales.
IF it happens, there should orders aplenty, with sales outlets (24hr order delivery), proven safety and warrantee satisfaction.

Personally (everything I say is IMHO) I think the idea of 'standard existing technology' and the safety coverage will cover that. Since it has already been a factor in the reservations.
Anyway, it's opinion at this point, but I think, production delays will only affect reservations and new reservations (and private funding), but will not drive other sales. The general public is very -just this second- oriented and will not look on past factors that don't affect current desires and objectives.

 

[AriLea]

Personally (everything I say is IMHO) I think the idea of 'standard existing technology' and the safety coverage will cover that. Since it has already been a factor in the reservations.
Anyway, it's opinion at this point, but I think, production delays will only affect reservations and new reservations (and private funding), but will not drive other sales. The general public is very -just this second- oriented and will not look on past factors that don't affect current desires and objectives.

You know, I really got to point out why reservation vs sales are different for the Elio than something like the Tesla, Volt, Aptera, C1Lite and other reservation based programs.

On those others, the reservation holders are considered indicative of the size of future buyer populations but as a subgroup who are willing to put money down. These products are at a higher cost than standard existing vehicles based on the unique attributes of the new products.
That is to say there is little or no difference in the motivations of the reservists versus the non.

The Elio on the surface seems that way, as a simple subgroup, but there is a difference. The most enthusiastic future buyers, by the size of the population (not by emotion) of non-reservationists, are in two groups, those who desperately need cheap transportation and those totally pragmatic ( and dispassionate ) wanting to save money any sensible way they can. Both of those groups do not like putting money down with any perceived risk at all, or with a delay over 60days. They are based in the moment on what I need right now, not in 90days or up to a year-plus.
Therefore, current Elio reservists are not fully a sub-group. They are partly a parallel group, hopefully related in ratio to the other (hopefully) larger population. Inherently their motivations vary somewhat from the reservist vs the non.

The question is what does the population of reservations tell you about 'normal' buyers in the future? It takes a little street level research to know that for sure. My own 'encounters' lead me to believe in the 10:1 ratio in first year sales for the Elio and much-much less for those other vehicle programs noted above. This is why my expectations are higher for the Elio based on reservations than the other reservation programs that have gone before.

The last market distinctive vehicle offering based on cost saving I can think of are early imports like the VW or Japanese cars when they were tiny compared to American products. These are still not as distinctive and disruptive as the Elio.

 

[eddie66]

You know, I really got to point out why reservation vs sales are different for the Elio than something like the Tesla, Volt, Aptera, C1Lite and other reservation based programs.

On those others, the reservation holders are considered indicative of the size of future buyer populations but as a subgroup who are willing to put money down. These products are at a higher cost than standard existing vehicles based on the unique attributes of the new products.
That is to say there is little or no difference in the motivations of the reservists versus the non.

The Elio on the surface seems that way, as a simple subgroup, but there is a difference. The most enthusiastic future buyers, by the size of the population (not by emotion) of non-reservationists, are in two groups, those who desperately need cheap transportation and those totally pragmatic ( and dispassionate ) wanting to save money any sensible way they can. Both of those groups do not like putting money down with any perceived risk at all, or with a delay over 60days. They are based in the moment on what I need right now, not in 90days or up to a year-plus.
Therefore, current Elio reservists are not fully a sub-group. They are partly a parallel group, hopefully related in ratio to the other (hopefully) larger population. Inherently their motivations vary somewhat from the reservist vs the non.

The question is what does the population of reservations tell you about 'normal' buyers in the future? It takes a little street level research to know that for sure. My own 'encounters' lead me to believe in the 10:1 ratio in first year sales for the Elio and much-much less for those other vehicle programs noted above. This is why my expectations are higher for the Elio based on reservations than the other reservation programs that have gone before.

The last market distinctive vehicle offering based on cost saving I can think of are early imports like the VW or Japanese cars when they were tiny compared to American products. These are still not as distinctive and disruptive as the Elio.

I can only speak for myself, but when I put down my 1K, I was a major fan. After the last delay, and the postponement of the engine unvailing, I feel like a captive fan. In other words, once all in, you don't have much choice. I will say, if there are any further delays, I will be a customer only, if and when I ever get that email asking me to choose my options.

 

[Sidecar Bob]

My money is all in.

I bought a “T” shirt and bumper sticker and a chance to buy an ELIO if and when they are produced.

Kind of like a lottery ticket. The fun is the anticipation and planning on what fun it will be to drive it.

The enjoyment is being part of the group that believes that Paul Elio is going to succeed.

 

[Rickb]

I for one think the Gooberment is all about power and getting reelected to gain more power and status, couldn't really give a flip less about "the people". Corporate is the same only substitute money wher I typed power.
GO Paul Elio, most definately a breath of fresh air !

(Sorry Goofyone, my last political post)

Sad case scenario regarding "gooberment". There is a lot of gooberment behind Paul Elio's breath of hot air.........I mean fresh air. lol Oh, I kid Paul Elio as he rolls on the floor with laughter after reading my post.