Squashed like a bug.

[JohnJ]

Above someone called the Elio a "niche" market. I guess any new car could be called that, but the thing is it would not be for long. With the number of people out there who could use a low cost second car, that would fill their need as a commuter car or for a quick trip to the store, the Elio would be prefect. When people started seeing them on the streets interest would grow exponentially as would sales. I can imagine that it would not be long before sales would be 50 or 100 thousand a year.

 

[84mpg]

Above someone called the Elio a "niche" market. I guess any new car could be called that, but the thing is it would not be for long. With the number of people out there who could use a low cost second car, that would fill their need as a commuter car or for a quick trip to the store, the Elio would be prefect. When people started seeing them on the streets interest would grow exponentially as would sales. I can imagine that it would not be long before sales would be 50 or 100 thousand a year.

Couldn’t agree more…..

 

[JohnJ]

What separates the Elio from all these other 3 wheelers out there, is that the Elio is a "practical" vehicle. The others are more like toys. Who needs a car that will only take one person or has no windows or doors let alone air conditioning or doesn't have anywhere to carry cargo? Again, not practical, just toys.

 

[Rickb]

Above someone called the Elio a "niche" market. I guess any new car could be called that, but the thing is it would not be for long. With the number of people out there who could use a low cost second car, that would fill their need as a commuter car or for a quick trip to the store, the Elio would be prefect. When people started seeing them on the streets interest would grow exponentially as would sales. I can imagine that it would not be long before sales would be 50 or 100 thousand a year.

That’s exactly what’s happening with Arcimoto’s FUV. They have recently moved into their new Made in America (Eugene, OR) manufacturing plant and in the process of scaling production to 50,000 units per year from that location by 2024-25. I wish Elio would have had a similar business model and dedicated team members to pull that off.

 

[Rabrandt99]

The reality is that Paul let perfect be the enemy of good, he wasn't willing to compromise and he made some baffling business decisions.

The important thing about any product is getting SOMETHING out there. Because once it's out there, even if it doesn't do everything you wanted it to do, you could always reiterate with a version 2... and if it at least does most of what it's advertised, people can forgive and will buy a newer version later.

Paul's problem is that he was obsessed with getting everything he wanted. It HAD to be made in America first, despite other countries maybe offering lower start-up costs. It HAD to make it to 84 miles per gallon, because he said it would. It couldn't have a high sticker price (which a limited run would probably have to be), because he wanted this to be a people's car... even though selling that type of volume right off the bat is extremely capital intensive.

I personally believe Paul could have released the Elio in the P4 state... but I have no doubt that somewhere the math came out that even with the proper engine, it wouldn't have gotten 84 MPG.

So he had to continue to rejigger the vehicle until the aerodynamics gave him that number.

Then came the decisions to do things counter-intuitive to the mission; like creating a whole new type of dash that would add cost and complexity to the vehicle. Because as much as I didn't hate the Elgin dash, that would have to be a whole new production line just to make those things... when he could buy a traditional dash in bulk.

I also remember when the P5 came out, as well as the news about IAV doing the engine, people bitched about the side-exhaust hump and started suggesting the engine should have a slot for a turbo modification. So with all the noise, suddenly it was announced that they were going back to the drawing board in order to get rid of the hump and design the engine so it could turbo-charged.

So now money that could be going towards production is addressing things that don't matter and just burns cash.

A lot of people bitch about him trying to create an original engine instead of leasing/buying an existing one, but that's something I posted about before, where a former IAV engineer working on the Elio Engine discussed it on Jalopnik. I'm reposting it here...



So Shiney. So Chrome! So Frunky
9/27/18 11:41am


Jason, I worked on the Elio engine at IAV so let me give you a little background on why they decided to develop it in the first place. Elio had always wanted to just buy an engine but turns out it’s really hard to get someone to sell you one when your a startup. Most companies in that situation want the money up front and most start ups can’t tie up that much in engines sitting around. Standard is payment on delivery. They had something lined up and from what I understand that company went under. They had an analysis done on the Geo motor by another consulting firm and that firm assured Elio the Geo motor with minimum modification would give them the fuel economy needed. When IAV did their own analysis they concluded more changes would be needed to achieve 84 mpg. So IAV started making changes and in the end their engine only shares 1 seal with the Geo motor. You are right that it was not the best route but it seemed it was the only way at the time. O, and for how much they spent well they got the deal of a lifetime for a complete engine development but I can say it was still a couple million and taking it into production would have needed another $10 million in development.

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• HC111
  9/27/18 2:42pm
  So once they got a bunch of pre-orders and buzz, and a factory, they didn’t have the clout to try and work a deal with a manufacturer?
  
  Reply
  
  
  
• So Shiney. So Chrome! So Frunky
  9/27/18 3:10pm
  No. It’s also not just clout. There is a whole number of reasons but most of it comes down to capacity and money. The combination of a engine manufacturer, like say Ford, who had a suitable engine, enough manufacturing capacity to meet the demands of Ford and Elio at the same time, and a price both could work with was rare to say the least. But since Ford is phasing out their cars selling in the US,selling the Fiesta’s 3 cylinder engine might to Elio might be a way to recoup sunk costs and will therefore now be a deal they are willing to make. Times and conditions changeReply
  
  
  
  
• Not_another_kinja_account
  9/27/18 3:59pm
  Wait, Elio has real employees?Reply
  
  
  
  
• So Shiney. So Chrome! So Frunky
  9/27/18 4:02pm
  Had. I worked for IAV solely on the Elio engine. When they ran out of cash my position was terminated so I guess you could say Elio both gave me and cost me the best job I ever had.

---

The fact of the matter is that creating a car company from scratch is extremely hard. There's so many barriers to entry, especially if you're trying to create a low-cost 'car of the people'.

Paul Elio had a lot of great ideas and had the right game plan. While I personally advocate for electric vehicles, when he was trying to get the Elio off the ground it would've been a losing game to do so... it was too new of tech and would make the Elio prohibitively expensive. So sticking with gas was a smart decision and many of his things (like the online configurator, pop-up stores, 24 hr delivery from order, phone app, ETC) are things new start-ups are doing to great effect. But he took too long, because electric became the hot thing and suddenly money that could have been his had he moved faster was lost.

Why invest in old tech that likely will go the way of the dodo in 10 years?

There's no guarantee that if he had done all the things I think he should have done (kept the P4 design, raise the price slightly, lower the MPG target) that the Elio would've made it to market nor be successful... as the engine may just have been the unkillable white whale. But I do think that if he had, he would've had a good starting point, being able to then iterate the Elio 2.0, with new styling akin to the P5, perhaps better aerodynamics and other features that upped the MPG target, essentially becoming the traditional 'refresh' the big automakers do.

From there, he could constantly update things, hopefully lower the price, start investing in electrification efforts so he could bring about the Elio-E...

But at this point, I think Paul Elio's inflexibility and short-sighted mistakes have cost him his dream. Sucks, because out of all the three wheelers, Elio still has my favorite look.

I would love to be proven wrong, I would love for someone to come in and fund his dream, but I do think the electric car start-up market bubble is about to burst. Furthermore, a good portion of those companies managed to raise billions of dollars of capital and at least half of them are struggling to survive, having burned through their cash.

I keep hoping for a Faraday Future type of revival (from all the debt and bad decisions they made to actually set for SOP this year) but I don't think that's possible here.

The main takeaway from my post should be this... there was no conspiracy. Making cars is hard, making affordable cars even harder, inflexibility and poor decisions burned through cash that they didn't need to lose. I don't think Paul was a con man or fraud, nor someone sabotaged... he had a good idea, but never got the timing right and the world passed him by.

Again, would love to be proven wrong... but sadly, I don't think I will be. We're currently reliving the Elio saga... a big announcement, then no news/communications for months now.

 

[Rickb]

Rabrandt99, Spot on. That is the Arcimoto business model. Start small and grow with sound planning and fiscal responsibility. They are currently developing the production scale 1. x iteration FUV to include full enclosure (my personal must have), partnering with Munro & Associates to streamline the current production model FUV platform‘s parts and assembly process for maximum manufacturing efficiency, tooling the new manufacturing plant, and making real headway on the path to production scale. With that said they currently have over 200 employees, run 4 - 10 hour days per week, assembling 6 units per day @ around $20K per vehicle, and have opened regional sales and service to only 6 States since their first production FUV delivered in 2019. The good news is Arcimoto is a team of dedicated people with a shared vision, taking excellent care of the current customer base with service and warranty work provided at their Eugene, OR manufacturing plant location or by mobile service techs for those customers to far out to travel. It’s a slow, tedious, and complicated process for a new startup, that needs business and engineering experience, but more importantly long range financial planning to keep the bills paid during that growth period. Seems even slower for customers waiting for regional sales expansion to their home States, wanting to get behind the handlebars of a new FUV.

 

[Rabrandt99]

Yep, agreed Rickb. All the successful automotive 3-wheeler start-ups seem to follow the same pattern... start small, deliver what they can and constantly communicate to their customers.

Arcimoto has done this very successfully, Electrameccanica has done well with the Solo, Aptera seems primed to actually make it into production.

That's what is so frustrating with Elio. All the wounds that kept them from succeeding seem self-inflicted.

I mean, from all accounts the Solo isn't the best riding vehicle and it has issues... but they actually GOT their vehicle out there! Started with a Chinese Factory and based on feedback from owners of the Chinese produced version, they made adjustments for V2 which bettered some aspects and they're on track to get a U.S. factory up and running, all the while still delivering vehicles.

And while V2 has some problems (that Arilea posted about and I know Nikki from Transport Evolved mentioned in a test drive review video) they're things that can be addressed in a V3 version of the Solo.

Compare that to the Sondors EV, which had two tries to raise capital (the second one barely raised half of the money they asked for) and one of the complaints made was that they weren't communicative. Storm Sondors the CEO said he'd be better to communicating what it going on with the company as one of the first updates in the campaign and since it's ended... nada.

Remind you of anyone?

Ah well, enough kvetching for now.

 

[Rickb]

Rabrandt99, I’m reminded after 15 years years of following enclosed three wheeler concepts with reservation deposits on the FUV, Lit C-1, SOLO, and the Elio. I’m still chasing the dream. Arciimoto’s FUV is the only one I’ve test driven (a blast to drive) along with a real deal factory tour back in 2019. Still waiting on the FUV 1.x reveal to verify full enclosure along with regional sales and service expansion to my home State of South Dakota. Meantime, getting to damn old and cranky to wait much longer. Note: After my surprising positive experience of owning/driving an EV over the past 2 years, I’d prefer an electric enclosed three wheeler, but would take either checks my must haves.

 

[Sonoran Sam]

I do have a question and would like to hear any and all opinions... I may have a follow up question, as well.

Whenever a product is brought to market a lot of product testing is done to see if there is a "demand" for that product. Focus groups, opinion polls, etc. are all methods employed by market test companies. These companies specialize in that area and provide much needed data to all manner of industries.

Paul Elio had already proven there was a "demand" for his Elio 3 wheel vehicle, as he already had many refundable and non-refundable reservations, but he went ahead and made an expensive TV commercial. This commercial aired quite a bit, at least on the channels I watched. Included in the commercial was reservation statement, something like "Reserve yours, now" and referred people to their website.

My question is... Why produce an expensive TV commercial and pay for the cost to air it, if you have already proven people want your vehicle?? The fact that they put money down is proof positive that many people wanted it, which answered the question of "Is there a demand for this item??". Why not use that money to start producing the vehicle on a small scale and get the vehicle in the hands of those first reservation holders??

Paul could certainly have raised the price after fulfilling those first orders.

That was kind of a "turning point" for me when I saw the TV commercial, if left me scratching my head and asking "Why did he do that??"

 

[Made in USA]

I do have a question and would like to hear any and all opinions... I may have a follow up question, as well.

Whenever a product is brought to market a lot of product testing is done to see if there is a "demand" for that product. Focus groups, opinion polls, etc. are all methods employed by market test companies. These companies specialize in that area and provide much needed data to all manner of industries.

Paul Elio had already proven there was a "demand" for his Elio 3 wheel vehicle, as he already had many refundable and non-refundable reservations, but he went ahead and made an expensive TV commercial. This commercial aired quite a bit, at least on the channels I watched. Included in the commercial was reservation statement, something like "Reserve yours, now" and referred people to their website.

My question is... Why produce an expensive TV commercial and pay for the cost to air it, if you have already proven people want your vehicle?? The fact that they put money down is proof positive that many people wanted it, which answered the question of "Is there a demand for this item??". Why not use that money to start producing the vehicle on a small scale and get the vehicle in the hands of those first reservation holders??

Paul could certainly have raised the price after fulfilling those first orders.

That was kind of a "turning point" for me when I saw the TV commercial, if left me scratching my head and asking "Why did he do that??"

Perhaps the reason for the commercial was to reach a broader audience and attract major investors who may not have heard of Elio Motors before then. I think I first heard of Elio because of an online article. Searched high and low before I found this great website for "Elio Owners".