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The "wait And See Club"

Trusting

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How many people really want to buy a new Elio? I've wondered about that for some time. Here's some fancy figurin I did to try and answer the question.

I have a website with over 14,000 members and I'll use the numbers from it to try and estimate the Elio numbers. Ok, if someone joins my site they can do it in one of two ways. One way is absolutely free and the other way they pay a fee that only comes out to about $2 a month. With the paid fee they are able to use many valuable features not available to the free members and these features make the site much more user friendly, functional and faster. In other words; it's really the smart move and well worth the money. They can profit greatly from being a paid member.

Of the 14,000 members only about 2% actually pay the fee and 98% are free loaders. So, here are a bunch of people who, for a pittance, can reap the benefits of the site (which most use every day) but won't pay a very small fee. Conclusion: the great unwashed public are a bunch of tightwads.

Then there's Elio, who wants people to pony up $100 to $1,000 for something that doesn't exist, and no one knows for sure when or if it will ever exist. It's absolutely extroidinary that they have taken 51,000 reservations! Based on what I've seen with my own site I think it is safe to say that for every one reservation there are 25, maybe 50 others who are waiting for the cars to appear before ordering one.

With those numbers I would think Elio should be able to get all the funding they need. I believe they, in reality, already have over a million cars sold but just don't have the money yet.

Time to get off their hind ends and start building cars!
 
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Buckeyejake

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How many people really want to buy a new Elio? I've wondered about that for some time. Here's some fancy figurin I did to try and answer the question.

I have a website with over 14,000 members and I'll use the numbers from it to try and estimate the Elio numbers. Ok, if someone joins my site they can do it in one of two ways. One way is absolutely free and the other way they pay a fee that only comes out to about $2 a month. With the paid fee they are able to use many valuable features not available to the free members and these features make the site much more user friendly, functional and faster. In other words; it's really the smart move and well worth the money. They can profit greatly from being a paid member.

Of the 14,000 members only about 2% actually pay the fee and 98% are free loaders. So, here are a bunch of people who, for a pittance, can reap the benefits of the site (which most use every day) but won't pay a very small fee. Conclusion: the great unwashed public are a bunch of tightwads.

Then there's Elio, who wants people to pony up $100 to $1,000 for something that doesn't exist, and no one knows for sure when or if it will ever exist. It's absolutely extroidinary that they have taken 51,000 reservations! Based on what I've seen with my own site I think it is safe to say that for every one reservation there are 25, maybe 50 others who are waiting for the cars to appear before ordering one.

With those numbers I would think Elio should be able to get all the funding they need. I believe they, in reality, already have over a million cars sold but just don't have the money yet.

Time to get off their hind ends and start building cars!
There is a large contingent of folks that are waiting for the Elio to be in production over a year so all the manufacturing bugs are worked out. At #1788 I'll take my chances.
 

Gas-Powered Awesome

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Your conclusion is flawed.
The reality is 98% of the public doesn't find your site worth $2.
Maybe they are already paying other, more-valuable (to them) sites.
If I paid $2/month for every site I visit, it would cost more than cable TV! ;)

People selling stuff always think it's more valuable than it really is.
The psychologists have a name for it I don't remember.
But it's the buyers who set the price, not the sellers.

People invest money in things they think are valuable.
They invest as little money as possible to get the value they want.
People who don't see the value or aren't sure there is value don't spend the money.
 
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Trusting

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Your conclusion is flawed.
The reality is 98% of the public doesn't find your site worth $2.
Maybe they are already paying other, more-valuable (to them) sites.
If I paid $2/month for every site I visit, it would cost more than cable TV! ;)

People selling stuff always think it's more valuable than it really is.
The psychologists have a name for it I don't remember.
But it's the buyers who set the price, not the sellers.

People invest money in things they think are valuable.
They invest as little money as possible to get the value they want.
People who don't see the value or aren't sure there is value spend the money.

Very well thought out and reasonable. Too bad you don't know what you're talking about.

The paid subscribers have told me they think it's a bargain and one even said he has been making a living off the site for several years. Also, there is no other site like it... it's unique. Other than the modest membership feel I'm not selling any thing. I'm retired with another income and mainly created the site as something to do.... kind of like posting on this forum.
 

Gas-Powered Awesome

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Very well thought out and reasonable. Too bad you don't know what you're talking about.

The paid subscribers have told me they think it's a bargain and one even said he has been making a living off the site for several years.
If both of your assertions are true, then why do 98% of your users think your site is not worth $2?

Not knocking your site since I know nothing about it. Just knocking your assumptions and conclusion.

You think it's worth $2 for 100% of your users. 2% of your users agree. 98% of your users disagree. Q.E.D.

Bringing this back to Elio: 50,000 people think the Elio is worth $100 to $1000 even at the risk of getting nothing in return. Just shy of 300 million people disagree (cut me some slack on that one :D). That doesn't mean they are cheap, it just means they don't see the value in gambling on the Elio. Maybe they are smarter than we are, maybe not. I don't think you can assume that their lack of a reservation means that they see the Elio's value and just choose to ignore it, and a million of them are already sold on buying one.
 

Maurtis

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Unfortunately I am in the wait-and-see group. The Elio as planned is exactly the commuter I have been looking for to supplement my motorcycle for commuting. And for a while I actually planned on putting 1K all-in. But after thinking about it, I will not. The positives are I would get an extra $500 off and get a first year model. $500 off some point in the possible future vs losing twice that? No thanks. And first year of a car from a company who has never produce a large machine with a new engine design that will only have a few months of testing? Hmmm, I think waiting for the second year might be worth it...

Putting $1k non-refundable down really seems like a lot to ask. I am glad there are plenty who are willing to make that gamble, but the value is not there for me and many others like me. I just dropped the price of an optioned out Elio on exercising some stock options for the privately held company I work for. That is a gamble too, but a gamble that I have some say in.

Without funding, they cannot even make the cars yet. With funding, that $1k becomes a pre-order and we are just waiting on tooling and testing. That makes sense. Without the funding...

Thanks for your sacrifice fellas, I REALLY hope it pays off. Looking forward to my year two (hopefully turbo) Elio in 2018.
 
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RUCRAYZE

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Unfortunately I am in the wait-and-see group. The Elio as planned is exactly the commuter I have been looking for to supplement my motorcycle for commuting. And for a while I actually planned on putting 1K all-in. But after thinking about it, I will not. The positives are I would get an extra $500 off and get a first year model. $500 off some point in the possible future vs losing twice that? No thanks. And first year of a car from a company who has never produce a large machine with a new engine design that will only have a few months of testing? Hmmm, I think waiting for the second year might be worth it...

Putting $1k non-refundable down really seems like a lot to ask. I am glad there are plenty who are willing to make that gamble, but the value is not there for me and many others like me. I just dropped the price of an optioned out Elio on exercising some stock options for the privately held company I work for. That is a gamble too, but a gamble that I have some say in.

Thanks for your sacrifice fellas, I REALLY hope it pays off. Looking forward to my year two (hopefully turbo) Elio in 2018.
You've expressed an opinion that receives much well earned support.
Speaking for myself- it is first a desire to own a very unique vehicle at an amazing low price-(first pic I saw guessed 20k), $500 incentive, and within 24hrs I was waiting for my "T". Knowing I could lose it all would have minimal impact on my financial life. (for which I am very thankful)

What I have come to appreciate, if it never happens, to know that in a small way I helped support the next generation of personal transportation. The basic research is in place, and I hope it's P E whose name will be remembered as is Henry Ford
(not Edsel )
 
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