What If? - Elio Beyond 2017 . . .

[dunkybones]

Current CAFE standards don't apply to motorcycles, or the 'Autocycles.' Also current CAFE standards apply apply fleet wide regardless of how many units are sold. As an example, if Ford's Mustang gets 22 avg mpg, and they sell 10,000 units, and Ford's Focus electric gets 110 mpge, and they only sell 100 of them, the Cafe standards are exceeded because Ford just averaged 77 mpg across the fleet of vehicles offered. I drive a 1st gen Honda Insight which listed at 68 mpg and sold for under $20,000. Rumor has it that Honda sold this car at a loss, because then they didn't have to worry about mpg in the Ridgleline or CR-V. (Interesting note: The Insight is a 2 seater, and the most aerodynamically and fuel efficient vehicle ever to be mass produced. Toyota stole their lunch because the Prius had 4 seats.)

If Elio makes it to production, and then is even mildly successful, their success may well be their failure. The big auto companies will notice how this little start up skirted some laws, created a new segment that is largely unregulated, and will move to either have the laws changed to hinder Elio, or take advantage of the loopholes Elio drove through for their own advancement. If Elio goes the way of the Yugo or the Delorean, because it is either unscalable or unsellable, no one will care. If Elio proves to be an accepted format in the USA, then they might not be ready for the for the 'revolution in transportation' they are so eager to start.

Public Perception:

The Prius is now offered in various formats and it's sales volume has cooled, even as the Prius was never a huge seller. It is now openly derided like a PT Cruiser or a Plymouth Aztec. No one even knows what a Honda Insight is, and the 2nd generation was indistinguishable from the Prius. Last I heard, Honda was dropping the Insight. The Big 3 in the US, which are now truly building cars for the global market, are well versed in the failures of marketing to a fickle consumer. The Aztec, the ugliest car ever made, was a Prius three times the size and twice as clever, but a marketing failure. Ford tries to bring back the Thunderbird, and it was a beautiful retro design. It tanked because at that time if you wanted a cool 2 seater, you bought a Honda S2000, or a BMW Z3, or that cool little Audi, something FOREIGN. Ford wins with the new Mustang, Dodge Chargers win in the same segment, and also get to be cop cars. The Chevy Volt is GM's attempt to change the game and no one talks about it. European manufacturers don't care about price point, they sell high for cache. The Japanese still ride high on reliability and economy, even though American companies have been on par for years.

Where the Elio may land is anyone's guess. If we get a half a Geo Metro with it's full compliment of junk, if we get something that rattles itself apart idling at a red light and you pee blood for three days after you hit a pothole, if it looks like a shark but drives like a slug, the whole deal is over before it gets around the block. On the other hand, even if it's the coolest, most fun, most efficient, most reliable, easy to maintain vehicle the world has ever seen, if it gets punked by being a punchline for late night talk show hosts, and gutted by the 'Murica crowd, then it won't matter. Stick a fork in it.

Disclaimer: I love this concept. Even if they don't make it, I want them to make mine, and I'll drive it with my knees so I can flip the bird out of both windows while trundling down the road in my geekmobile deathtrap.

 

[Dustoff]

Knees on the wheel flipping off the world? Your description of a geekmobile deathtrap will be a self fulfilling prophecy. RIP

 

[pj rogers]

Now you know why I stay home, some people out there are "knee drivers"..!

 

[creekstone]

Disclaimer: I love this concept. Even if they don't make it, I want them to make mine, and I'll drive it with my knees so I can flip the bird out of both windows while trundling down the road in my geekmobile deathtrap.

I give this posting a 10 for style points.
And I hope you get that opportunity.

 

[Lil4X]

Current CAFE standards don't apply to motorcycles, or the 'Autocycles.' Also current CAFE standards apply apply fleet wide regardless of how many units are sold. . . .

But that's the problem. The major automakers are going to have to choose - pressure the government into requiring automotive standards for "autocycles", raising development, testing, certification, and manufacturing costs and forcing the Elio to sell at the price level of an Aveo . . . or, attack suppliers at the source, withholding their supply contracts from vendors who work with Elio. Now there are dozens of legal reasons neither of these would work, but a little hint here or there might change the mind of a supplier who sees a major business partner like Ford take a walk because the vendor is building a few thousand units for Elio. By the time that case reached a judge, it would have been over for months.

If you don't think this is possible, read the story of Preston Tucker who stood the auto industry on its ear by designing and actually building a production run of cars that anticipated technologies far ahead of their time. Collusion between the "Big Three" automakers who purchased a Senator (Homer S. Ferguson, (R, MI) to launch an SEC investigation, and conducted a media trial of not only the company, the product, and eventually Tucker himself, led to the failure of the company after one year of production (1948) and only 51 cars built. Up until then, we were unaware that one of the largest components of an automaker's overhead would be a team of lawyers.

DeLorean was forced overseas to Ireland where he was beyond the reach of most of the automotive industry. He was also beyond the reach of domestic suppliers and had to accept major components from European manufacturers whose products were ill-suited to a high-end sports car for the American road. Malcolm Bricklin had similar problems producing in volume. He had a good idea, but wonky styling and really poor FRP construction did him in. Chevrolet who had years of experience with the Corvette wasn't about to share their secrets . . . but it all looked so easy. Producing a handful of cars is an entirely different from manufacturing thousands. Companies that survive the initial teething problems usually run afoul of producing them in significant numbers. It appears that one of the reasons for Elio's receding delivery date is that they are fixing these problems before setting the line rather than on-the-fly after the line starts to move.

Aptera failed because it couldn't decide if it wanted to manufacture a EV or a hybrid. Had they built a vehicle based on half-a-motorcycle, as others have done, they might have been successful. A little more development and they might have produced an in-house FWD gasoline vehicle, but they got the cart before the horse. They had a gorgeous (if odd) shape, that was highly aerodynamic, but one that required sophisticated aircraft-quality construction of the body shell. The result was a 2+2 that looked (and was to be manufactured very much like) a small private aircraft. Costs would have been similar, with targets in the $30K range, and could never be produced at a significant rate. They never even reached much beyond construction of a couple of prototypes before they folded.

Today, most of the "independent" automakers, the ones making the largest strides in engineering the vehicles of the future, are doing so based upon grants and loans from the DoE. Dependence on federal funding, particularly because it is political in nature, is a very risky business. Businesses that depend on federal funding risk a sudden cutoff of investment due to the shifting winds of political support. Everyone wants "green" technology, and on the surface it looks like a good place for politicians who want to appear environmentally conscious to place their support. Solyndra, Beacon Power, BrightSource, SunPower, and Sapphire Energy are just a few of the headstones among the graveyard of failed "green scams" that collected hundreds of millions - even billions in investment capital from taxpayers (that's you and me), only to have the companies collapse (or be sold to China) when their products failed to deliver on their promises. Maybe we need a Federal Bureau of Fool Me Once . . .

With all of the disappointment from those of us who support Elio's efforts, and despite the trolls among the peanut gallery, I believe Paul Elio's going about this the right way. Sure the company blog is filled with pablum designed to keep enthusiasm pumped up, but you and I are getting a glimpse into the behind-the-scenes work it takes to bring a new product - particularly one that's as complex and heavily regulated as a motor vehicle. There will be more changes as time goes on - as smaller problems are worked out these changes will be less significant. With highly experienced and talented manufacturing engineers now on board, there is a large chunk of reality being injected into the design and production plans. We have to remember we're seeing a work in progress. After all, ANYONE with a little fabrication talent can build a car. With a lot of money, maybe you can build a couple hundred cars - if you're lucky. The problem is building a couple thousand cars EVERY MONTH. That is the real challenge here.

 

[Kuda]

But that's the problem. Snipped.............. After all, ANYONE with a little fabrication talent can build a car. With a lot of money, maybe you can build a couple hundred cars - if you're lucky. The problem is building a couple thousand cars EVERY MONTH. That is the real challenge here.

Fine essay. Not much to rebut. I would only add, the Elio is replete with battle scarred vets who believe, as we the early faithful do, that this concept is needed in America for all of the reasons we all know & embrace. If the Big boys bother to go after the Elio it will be because they see a real threat & not just a niche experiment. If that happens it will mean Elio has succeeded to a larger degree than even they may have projected. Times are different & the Sherman Act is alive & well in our country................so lets see what happens when the IAV Motor is in the P5 or P6 whatever & testing is done & folks start going to work in Louisiana. Worrying about Detroit's reaction to Elio is a worry I'd like to have.................

 

[pj rogers]

Kuda, you are close to the solution to all of EM's problems...if you want to get the real big picture, go to ...ohh, darn I better not, i'll wait untll the stuff really hits the fan...in a month or so when the law gets involved.

 

[pj rogers]

About those battle scarred vets..have you heard about a suppliers monthly meeting in the last 2-3 months? Or a big board MEETING..Do we even have pictures of the Michigan headquarters? Oh, and this might interest you..there was a security filling?? a few days ago...go to www.esgeng.com ....look at the date of the company and the picture! Interesting huh!

 

[Craig]

IF is a big word, but take a look at the automobile industry as it stands today - and facing mandatory fuel consumption numbers in a few years. What are the big guys doing about achieving that required 54.5 miles per gallon for the 2025 model year? Thus far, not much. The industry seems to be counting on repeal of those numbers, or else a sudden shift to electrics, natural gas, or hydrogen fuels. Without a major shift in fuel infrastructure, these simply won't happen. Thus far there's no incentive for energy companies to do anything but produce motor gasoline. You don't see anyone rushing out to build electric charging stations or hydrogen dispensers on every street corner in America - and you probably won't - like it or not, mogas is hands-down the fuel of the coming generation.

I wouldn't bet GM, Ford, or Chrysler/Fiat on any kind of legislation - somewhere I'd want to hedge my bet. Elio, or something like it, can be built in a couple of years (by a major corporation) in volumes that could improve an automakers CAFE numbers to the point they could remain in business. Is THIS the ultimate fate of Elio Motors? . . . . acquisition by GM, Ford, Toyota, etc.?

Let's face it, in order to stay in the automobile business beyond 2025, EM would be the low-hanging fruit in any major automaker's quest to produce a super-economical car practically overnight. As an entry-level vehicle, designed for commuters, and marketed at a price every commuter could easily afford a safe, weatherproof transportation capsule that would boost the CAFE averages for a company intent on selling 5-passenger cars that aren't quite able to grasp that 54.5 across-the-board corporate average, the Elio would be a Godsend that would still allow them to produce Escalades and Grand Cherokees as halo products for their marques. Naturally the base price of their rebranded "Elio" would increase pretty dramatically - to probably $10-12K, with options that could bring the sticker price to a pretty appalling $23K or more.

Unaccustomed as I am to playing devil's advocate here, the acquisition of EM by any of the Big 4 or 5 would allow them to remain as a major player in the business by putting a fully-developed product in their showrooms that would earn them huge credits on the CAFE charts. A few hundred million or so would be chicken feed to one of these industrial giants, and it would effectively head off a whole lot of federal mandates and forced shut-downs.

The engineering is done, and there will be in a few years, plenty of proof-of-market products on the road. Elio will have broken the trail, developed a successful product, and proven that Americans will actually BUY small 2-seat commuter vehicles. The hard work will already have been done. A major automaker's assembly process would only have to be adjusted to fit their industrial culture. In a year or two of production, even those processes could be completely re-formed. Will we see an Elio (or something really close to it) with a Chevy bow-tie or a Ford blue oval on it by, say, 2020?

"the acquisition of EM by any of the Big 4 or 5 would allow them to remain as a major player in the business"

JMO. This will add at least $3 maybe $4K to the car do to the increase of labor and profit margin, making it more cost effective to pay for a normal car with more usable features.

 

[Dustoff]

Troll psychology: They are very sick individuals and need psychiatric help. Maybe the affordable care act will be able to help them.

Because if you look closely at what these Internet Trolls say, you will eventually see the truth: They may look like big nasty ogres, but they're really just sorry little people hiding in their dark caves, coming out to make mischief before running back into hiding where they can watch the trouble they made and laugh all alone in the dark. They're emotional terrorists. Ignoring them isn't easy because it hurts to see them say and do things designed to make people feel upset and angry, but it's the only thing that will make them go away. Ignoring them completely creates an environment that simply does not give them what they're looking for. It's like soaking the woodpile with water: when the match comes along looking for something to burn, it won't catch, so it must go elsewhere to have its fun. But everyone must turn their backs and not respond, or the Troll will have the hope that if he keeps at it and tries hard enough, he'll get a big enough reaction to start a real fire.

I have them on ignore.